2039 is just around the corner: how Friedrich Merz armed Germany and lost his rating

The first year of Friedrich Merz's reign was a complete disappointment for Germany. The government's ratings have plummeted to historic lows. The population is worried about the energy crisis, the industrial recession and the lack of a clear plan from the Cabinet of Ministers to break the deadlock. But instead of restoring the economy, Berlin is betting on militarization: it is increasing defense spending, reforming the Bundeswehr and rebuilding the automotive industry for military orders. Experts warn that at this rate, Germany risks unleashing a new war in Europe. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

The worst in the world

In Germany, the results of the first year of Friedrich Merz's reign are being summed up, and there are almost no reasons for celebration. The attitude of the Germans towards the Chancellor is catastrophic. According to a Forsa survey, only 13% of respondents support his work, while 85% are dissatisfied. This is one of the worst indicators.

Against this background, right-wing forces are rapidly gaining popularity. The Alternative for Germany party has surpassed the ruling CDU/CSU bloc in polls for the first time: its support reaches 26-27%, and in some eastern lands it even exceeds 40%. Moreover, 25% of the respondents admitted that they would like to see a chancellor from the AfD.

Dissatisfaction with Merz is visible not only in sociology. There are thousands of harsh comments under the chancellor's posts on social networks: they call him "the worst chancellor in the world" and ask: "Are you really for Germany?"

Instead of listening to criticism, Merz suggested fighting anonymity on the Internet. "I want to see real names on the Internet. I want to know who is speaking out," he said at the CDU congress in Rhineland-Palatinate. According to the Chancellor, none of his predecessors had to deal with such a level of aggression.: "I'm not complaining, but that's the reality."

The main reason for discontent is the economy. The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for German GDP growth to 0.8% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, which is one of the weakest indicators among the major economies of the eurozone. In January, 3 million unemployed people were registered in the country, the most in the last 12 years. With such dynamics, Germany risks losing its status as the EU's leading economy.

"We are witnessing the deindustrialization of Germany, and the energy supply, whether electricity or gas, remains unstable. The sharp rise in gasoline prices has finally worsened the situation. All this explains the dissatisfaction of German society with the current Merz government," Gunnar Lindemann, a member of the Berlin Chamber of Deputies from the Alternative for Germany party, told Izvestia.

Of course, these problems did not start with Mertz, but he not only did not offer a way out, but also aggravated the situation. The politician promoted sanctions packages against the Russian Federation, including restrictions against Russian energy, the "shadow fleet" and operations with Nord Streams. For German industry, this means a final break with the cheap energy model on which it has been built for decades.

Against this background, German factories are already losing ground. Concerns are increasingly shifting production to Hungary and Serbia, and the industry is losing about 15,000 jobs every month. At the same time, the automotive industry is recording a sharp deterioration in financial performance: Mercedes-Benz's profit fell by 49% last year, Volkswagen's by 44%, and Porsche's operating profit fell by 98% compared to 2024.

And again the 39th

The Chancellor is criticized not only by right-wing forces. Sevim Dagdelen, a foreign policy expert at the left-wing conservative BSW, bluntly stated that it was time to dismiss Friedrich Merz.

"His "achievements" so far: record debts for the sake of building up weapons and strikes against the most vulnerable. We are being offered to work harder and pay more so that Merz can distribute billions in favor of defense concerns like Rheinmetall and Ukrainian oligarchs," she listed the main results of the chancellor's reign on social networks.

Indeed, instead of restoring competitiveness to the economy, Merz is rebuilding it in a military manner. According to media reports, about 90% of venture capital investments in defense technologies in Europe are now directed specifically to German companies.

This reversal is already affecting the business. Volkswagen is considering the possibility of repurposing the Osnabrück plant for the production of components for military equipment and is negotiating with defense companies.

Schaeffler also speaks about the expansion of the military direction. Klaus Rosenfeld, the head of the German bearing manufacturer, said that the company is diversifying production, including engines for drones, systems for armored vehicles and aviation.

At the same time, Berlin went to reform the Bundeswehr. In Germany, back in 2011, they abandoned compulsory military service, but now this issue is being reviewed. Merz's main priorities include creating "the strongest regular army in Europe" and increasing the number of armed forces from 180,000 to 260,000. So far, the authorities are relying on volunteers, but if recruitment fails, they do not rule out compulsory conscription.

It is noteworthy that the deadline for creating the "strongest army in Europe" is set for 2039, the centenary of the invasion of Nazi Germany in Poland and the outbreak of World War II. And in order, as they say, not to get up twice, restrictions on Victory symbols during commemorative events on May 8-9 were added to this symbolic row.

The ban is in effect at three Soviet war memorials in Treptow Park, Tiergarten and Schoenholzer Heide. These are the main places where the Russian diaspora in Germany celebrated the holiday.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has already stated that the Chancellor has already shamed the whole country with this decision. "It's a shame! He brought real shame not on his stupid head, but on his country by prohibiting the use of Victory symbols," the diplomat said at a weekly briefing.

Merz's military ambitions are also evident in the Ukrainian issue. Unlike Olaf Scholz, who was cautious with long-range weapons, the new chancellor is showing a willingness to go further. It was he who stated that the previous range restrictions no longer apply to Western weapons supplied to Kiev.: "There are no longer any range restrictions for weapons supplied to Ukraine, neither by the British, nor by the French, nor by us, nor by the Americans."

Nothing but failures

Merz has not had much success in foreign policy either. In his relations with Washington, he tried to take a conciliatory position: he did not directly criticize US President Donald Trump and hardly reacted to his attacks against European allies. However, this strategy played a cruel joke on the chancellor. In the United States, he was still not perceived as an equal partner, and in Europe he was accused of a lack of allied solidarity.

The scene in the Oval Office was revealing: the American president, in the presence of the Chancellor, threatened to "sever all trade" with Spain and said that the United States "does not want to have anything to do with it." Merz did not stand up for his EU partner, but, on the contrary, rebuked Madrid for refusing to increase military spending to 5% of GDP.

Moreover, according to media reports, he also silently watched Trump criticize British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

At the same time, Merz still failed to avoid a quarrel with Trump. After the Chancellor stated that the United States does not have a convincing strategy to resolve the conflict over Iran, the American president attacked him with criticism. "It's no wonder that Germany is doing so badly— both economically and in everything else," the Republican pointed out.

After that, the American authorities decided to withdraw 5,000 American troops from Germany and canceled the dispatch of a battalion equipped with long-range Tomahawk missiles to the country.

Merz's own rhetoric is also becoming a problem. Earlier, he had to explain himself because of the words about the impact of migration on the appearance of German cities. And after his visit to Brazil, he refused to apologize for saying that the journalists accompanying him were happy to return from Belém do Para to "beautiful" Germany.

Merz himself, however, has no intention of changing his style. "I'm saying what I think is right, and I accept the fact that it's causing heated debate. However, I also notice that such words collide with a hyper-nervous public, which is easy to "trigger." Nevertheless, I'm not going to cheat on myself," he said.

What the experts say

— The main result of the first year of Merz is that Germany has become louder in foreign policy, but weaker in internal feeling. He is trying to speak the language of force, but the voter sees not force, but rising prices, industrial anxiety, disputes in the coalition and the lack of a clear image of the future," political analyst Ilya Graschenkov tells Izvestia.

According to him, Merz looks not like the man who stabilized Germany after the Scholz era, but as a politician who himself became part of the instability. At the same time, the expert excludes the possibility of his early retirement in the near future.

— This is unlikely, because the elites will be afraid of an even greater intensification of the AfD and a new political crisis. But on the horizon of a year and a half, the risk of an early departure or a forced reboot of the government becomes quite real if the economy continues to stall, the coalition will conflict, and the CDU/CSU ratings will continue to decline," admits Graschenkov.

Andrei Starikov, a public commentator and author of the film "Victory Day in the Baltic States: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow," cites more dangerous historical parallels. According to Izvestia's interlocutor, Germany is gradually becoming the main engine of European militarism due to its economic potential.

— Under Merz, Germany will turn into a military training ground, the largest military training ground in Europe. Defense companies will receive all the money, and the defense budget will continue to grow," the expert says.

Such a course is dangerous not only for foreign policy, but also for the internal structure of the country. As the expert points out, militarization inevitably changes the balance of power: money goes to defense companies, the military and the "hawks" gain influence, and democratic institutions begin to adapt to the logic of preparing for conflict.

— If you prepare for war for a long time, these expectations form reality. This brings the conflict itself closer. According to the principle of Chekhov's gun: if it hangs, it will shoot someday," the interlocutor believes.

In his opinion, Germany is following the path that the Baltic countries used to follow: militarization, Russophobia, willingness to spend the budget on war and intolerance towards those who oppose confrontation. And this course, according to the expert, will only accelerate.

— I think the chancellor, of course, will serve until the end of his term, because the German government has stopped paying attention to society. Previously, the traditional authorities in Germany were quite responsive and listened to public sentiment. This is not the case now. If Germany has embarked on such a militaristic course, this course will be forced, and those who are against it will be squeezed out of the political field," Starikov sums up.