Merz spent a year as German Chancellor. What you need to know

Friedrich Merz has been the Federal Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. The leader of the Christian Democrats replaced Olaf Scholz in this post a year ago. According to opinion polls, in April 2026, for the first time, he dropped to last place in the popularity rating of German politicians. How the first year of Merz's rule went is in the Izvestia article.

Popularity rating

• Over the past year, Merz has not become a truly popular leader. Even amid expectations of change, he was inferior in personal support to his own Christian Democratic Union (CDU) bloc. Unlike Olaf Scholz, who led the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) to victory in 2021 due to his own rating, Merz had to catch up with the popularity of the CDU/CSU. His position within the party was also difficult to strengthen. He lost the leadership battle twice, and it was only after Angela Merkel's departure that he was called upon to restore order. The harsh style and lack of empathy were perceived as a tool to stabilize the party during the crisis period.

• Under Merz, the CDU returned to power, and he became chancellor. His performance has increased slightly, but he has not reached the leaders of the ratings. In April 2026, after almost a year of rule, he dropped from 18th to 20th place in the INSA rating for Bild and turned out to be the most unpopular politician on the list, gaining 28.9 points. The decline is noticeable not only in the country as a whole, but also among its own base. Even CDU supporters put him at the bottom of the list. Within this electorate, he has only 55.1 points and fifth place. Only 10% of respondents rate him positively, while 58% give low marks.

Foreign policy

The main reasons for German discontent remain the same. The economy is stagnating, the standard of living is declining, and the migration problem has not been solved. Foreign policy also raises questions, despite active trips and negotiations. Relations with the United States and France have become more complicated, there are no noticeable successes, and the rapprochement with Great Britain looks like a small positive moment.

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• Germany continues to strive to maintain multilateral formats, although it faces pressure from major powers and reduced predictability from allies. The United States is gradually distancing itself from Europe, which increases security concerns, especially against the background of the conflict in Ukraine. In particular, the United States plans to withdraw about 5,000 troops from Germany during the year, which is a significant part of the current contingent.

In relations with Germany, China uses its economic advantage and political rigidity, which is why the German side is forced to adapt to the conditions of the dialogue. Separate visits and negotiations are accompanied by tension, including travel cancellations and diplomatic disagreements. At the same time, trade with China is critically important for Germany, especially due to the industry's dependence on the supply of rare earth materials. At the same time, China is strengthening its position in high-tech industries, traditionally strong for the German economy, gradually reducing its competitive importance.

• Regarding Israel, Berlin simultaneously emphasized the historical responsibility and the need to ensure Israel's security, but also actively criticized the military actions in the Gaza Strip. Germany's political decisions changed during 2025: restrictions on arms supplies were temporarily imposed, then some of the restrictions were lifted. At the same time, differences in positions on the future of the Middle East settlement remain: Germany supports the two-state model, while the Israeli leadership rejects such an approach.

Domestic policy

• The situation inside the country is also tense. The Government relies on a minimal majority, and weak public support makes it vulnerable. Disillusionment with Merz strengthens the position of the opposition, especially the Alternative for Germany (AfD), and undermines the credibility of traditional parties.

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• The increase in support for Alternative for Germany (the party was ahead of the CDU in the polls for the first time) is due to unfulfilled promises to tighten migration policy before the 2025 elections. Migration remains the main internal problem, increasing social tension.

• The German economy remains in a protracted crisis that began after the pandemic and intensified due to the cessation of Russian gas supplies. In 2025, the German economy contracted by 0.3% in the second quarter compared to the previous one, while at the beginning of the year it grew by 0.3%. Real incomes grew more slowly than consumption: household spending increased by 3.7% while income grew by 2.5%, which caused the savings rate to fall to 9.7% from 10.8% a year earlier.

• At the same time, Germany looked weaker against the background of other EU countries: in the second quarter of 2025, GDP grew in the EU by 0.2%, in France by 0.3%, in Spain by 0.7%, while in Germany a decrease of 0.3% was recorded.

• In the first quarter of 2026, the German economy grew 0.3% compared to the end of 2025, which turned out to be better than expected. In annual terms, the growth was 0.5%, and taking into account prices and calendar — 0.3%. These data are still preliminary, the updated figures should be published on May 22.

• However, against the background of the conflict over Iran, the expert community has worsened expectations for the growth of the German economy in 2026. The new forecast assumes an increase in GDP of only 0.6% instead of the previous 1.3%. The main reason is the jump in energy prices, which is hitting the economic recovery.

• Estimates for 2027 have also been revised down: growth is now expected to be 0.9% instead of 1.4%. At the same time, inflation is accelerating, to an average of 2.8% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, compared with the previously expected 2% and 2.3%. The labor market is also showing no improvement: unemployment will rise from 6.3% to 6.4%, and the total number of unemployed remains above 3 million people.

• The economic situation remains weak. Civilian industries are gradually declining, while the defense sector, on the contrary, is expanding. In general, the economy is not in a crisis collapse, but it does not demonstrate steady growth, while the production and export of weapons, including for Ukraine, remains.

Own assessment of the work

• Merz acknowledged that Germany is lagging behind the United States and China in terms of dynamics, and called for more active work. In addition, the government has failed to properly shape the expectations of society.: There are no quick results, and the Chancellor himself rated the effectiveness of his work below 50 out of 100 points, pointing out the lack of real success in implementing major reforms.

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It's time for Germany to change, and the era when it was possible to live peacefully in conditions of general well-being is over. It will not be possible to maintain the current standard of living without active reforms. For the first time in 20 years, the German authorities are directly telling the public that the old idea of stable prosperity is no longer working. At the same time, both citizens and politicians underestimate the scale of global changes. For example, the pension system will not be able to provide a comfortable standard of living in the future without the development of private and corporate savings.

Interim result

• During the year of Merz's rule, the general course of Germany has not changed significantly. The country continues to move along an already set trajectory, and expectations from the new coalition were initially moderate and eventually failed to materialize, but there were no sharp turns either.

• Germany's position in Europe remains generally stable. The country is still the leading force of the EU, but its influence has not grown. Germany retains its economic leadership, but its political role has not increased, and Merz itself does not occupy a dominant place among the leaders of Europe.

• Low ratings by themselves do not mean an early retirement. Merz expects to wait out the difficult period, attributing the problems to external factors, in particular, Trump's unpredictable policy and the energy crisis due to the situation in the Middle East.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• political scientist Vadim Trukhachev.