Will there be a scoring extravaganza again in the PSG-Bayern match: the forecast of the Champions League game on May 6

The first semi-final match of the Champions League between PSG and Bayern ended with a score of 5:4 in favor of the Parisians. The result showed not only the minimal advantage of Luis Enrique's team before the trip to Munich, but also a number of tactical features that will determine the scenario of the second leg on May 6. To what extent the second leg will be similar to the first game, what is needed for Bayern to win and PSG's tactics — in the Izvestia article.

First Act: Anatomy of Madness at the Parc des Princes

According to Opta, PSG's xG was 1.90, Bayern's xG was 3.06. The total number of expected goals is significantly lower than the actual nine goals scored. Moreover, PSG landed five shots on goal against Manuel Neuer — and all five reached the target. These figures indicate an abnormally high realization of moments, which must be taken into account when predicting the return game. A repeat of such effectiveness is unlikely for both sides.

PSG winger Hvichi Kvaratskhelia's performance deserves special consideration. In the match, the Georgian footballer struck two shots and scored two goals. The first goal was the result of a timely opening behind Josip Stanisic, receiving a throw from Desiree Douai and an accurate shot into the far corner with a shift under his right foot — the ball hit the post, and then crossed the goal line.

Statistics of the Georgian football player in the current Champions League playoffs: seven goals and two assists. He scored in four consecutive matches, failing to score only in the second leg of the play-off round against Monaco.

Nervous ending: Zenit and Krasnodar maintain intrigue in the golden race

And three Moscow clubs and Baltika are playing giveaways in the fight for bronze.

Reasons for effectiveness — failure of counterpressing

Both teams build the game from possession and aggressive return of the ball after a loss. In the first match, this element did not function in the usual mode for either side. The key reason is the individual qualities of the performers, who are able to get out from under pressure in one or two touches. An illustrative episode: after losing the ball, Alfonso Davis goes tightly behind Douai, Jozua Kimmich connects with the second — but Desiree directs the ball with one touch of his heel into the area where Vitinha has already opened.

To neutralize such an episode with standard means of counterpressing, it takes either more time or an error by the player accepting the pressure. Neither of these things happened systematically in this match. An additional factor is relatively short periods of ownership. The teams carried out protracted positional attacks less often than usual, which reduced their readiness to rebuild after a loss.

"In games against PSG, the opponent, in fact, has only two scenarios: either go all-in, or sit down as deep as possible and play defensively. The level of individual skill of the PSG players and our own level leave no room for compromise," commented Bayern Munich head coach Vincent Kompany.

Structural problems in the support area

PSG had gaps between the lines during the match. Vitinya, who performs the functions of a deep playmaker, had difficulty controlling the space in front of the penalty area. This led to a goal by Michael Olise: the Bayern winger received the ball in the Parisians' defensive zone without resistance and shot through the center.

At Bayern, Jozua Kimmich had similar difficulties. Both defensive midfielders of the teams are backbone players focused on control and attack formation. In the chaotic pattern of the match, their influence decreased. Kimmich completed 50 accurate passes, Vitinya — 48. For comparison, in a standard Champions League match, each of them overcomes the mark of 80-100 assists.

Standard provisions

It is important to note that both teams scored a goal from the standards. PSG converted a corner through Joao Neves. The 174 cm tall Portuguese midfielder scored with his header for the second time this season. His specialty is acceleration from the depth of the penalty area to the near edge of the goalkeeper area ahead of the guardian. He scored against Lyon in Ligue 1 in the same way.

Bayern responded with a goal from Dayo Upamecano after a free kick. For the defender, this is the second goal of the season, both from the standards. His advantage in draws is a sharp start from the support zone, which allows him to avoid a direct power struggle and attack the ball at speed.

"Ovechkin is the level of Messi and Ronaldo"

One of the best players in the RPL, Eduard Spertsyan, talks about the phenomenon of the hockey legend, Krasnodar's struggle for the championship and Safonov's success at PSG

Personnel situation before the second leg

PSG losses: Ashraf Hakimi — torn hamstring, out for at least three weeks. The Moroccan has scored 12 assists this season and has been a key element in counterattacks, regularly joining the attacking trio as the fourth player. Luc Chevalier is injured in a Ligue 1 match. His absence reduces the options for rotating the goalkeeper position.

Bayern losses: Serge Gnabry — injury, Rafael Guerreiro — injury, Alfonso Davis — muscle injury, questionable participation. At the same time, Vincent Kompany returns to the coaching bench after being disqualified.

Balance of power and expected scenarios

Bayern Munich has consistently high scores at the Allianz Arena: one defeat in the last 29 home matches of the Champions League. The statistics of PSG's away matches in the playoffs are less clear, but under Luis Enrique, the team demonstrates the ability to play second - especially in the space that Munich will have to provide with positional attacks.

Hakimi's absence will limit PSG's ability to stretch the opponent's defense on the right flank. At the same time, it may shift the focus of attacks to the left flank, where Kvaratskhelia and Nuno Mendes operate. In the first match, Mendes was noted for an episode in which he made forceful contact with Olise and maintained his position, which is atypical for a confrontation with a physically powerful opponent.

The scenario in Munich will differ from the one in Paris in several ways. First, the implementation rate is highly likely to return to the average values. Secondly, Bayern, with the support of their home stadium, are more likely to have the initiative for long periods. Thirdly, the absence of Hakimi and the possible absence of Davis are changing the structure of the flank game of both teams.

"Now the result is more important than the content of the game itself"

Fakel football player Ravil Netfullin — about the struggle for entry into the Russian Premier League, the crisis of the Voronezh team and relations with Torpedo

One of the most memorable matches in the history of the Champions League will take place on the field of the Allianz Arena stadium. The starting whistle for the second leg will be blown on May 6 at 22:00 Moscow time.