The energy expert appreciated OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production

Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, explained why the OPEC+ decision will not rock the oil market.

In an interview with Radio 1 on Monday, May 4, the expert noted that the key problem is not the volume of oil production, but the inability to physically remove raw materials from the conflict zone. According to him, the decision to increase production is rather formal and its implementation is likely to be postponed, while an increase of 188,000 barrels per day will not compensate for a decrease of more than 8 million barrels.

He stressed that even a possible increase in Russia's production to the permitted quotas would not significantly affect market saturation. The expert also drew attention to the situation with the UAE: despite its formal freedom from quotas, the country faces export difficulties and had not even reached the established volumes before. In the context of the ongoing conflict, in his opinion, the fate of oil refining capacities remains uncertain, therefore, statements about withdrawal from the agreement have no practical significance yet.

In addition, he added that Russia retains a higher production potential compared to Saudi Arabia, which faces a decrease in export opportunities in the summer. The expert believes that the OPEC+ alliance will remain and continue to coordinate actions, since joint market regulation would be a more rational scenario. At the same time, according to him, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains a key factor, which cannot be ignored.

The contract is more expensive: OPEC+ decided to increase production despite the blockade of Hormuz

How will this decision affect the oil price and why will it be problematic to implement it?

As reported on May 3, seven OPEC+ countries, which includes Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Kuwait and Oman, agreed to increase the target level of oil production by 188 thousand barrels per day in June. It is clarified that the adjustment is scheduled for June 2026 and is being carried out as part of commitments to maintain the stability of the global oil market, taking into account additional voluntary restrictions previously adopted, RT writes. The next OPEC+ meeting will be held on June 7, IA Regnum clarifies. According to RIAMO, the decision on oil production volumes for June may be made without taking into account the quota for the UAE, which left OPEC on May 1. The organization noted that it appreciates the UAE's contribution to the development of cooperation between Arab states in the oil and energy sectors throughout the membership period. 360.ru .

A number of OPEC+ countries have previously adopted additional production restrictions in excess of quotas, including the UAE. Starting in April 2025, participants will gradually abandon these limits and coordinate plans for the next month on a monthly basis.