Emoji Summit: what Zelensky's visit to Armenia will lead to
Vladimir Zelensky has arrived in Armenia, where major European summits are taking place. The head of the Kiev regime has already held a number of bilateral meetings, and a separate session on support for Ukraine is expected on May 5. Experts say that these events may become a watershed in relations between Russia and Armenia. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
What happened
Two major events are taking place in Yerevan in early May — the summit of the European Political Community (ENP) and the Armenia-EU summit. Many European leaders have gathered in the republic to participate in these forums, including French President Emmanuel Macron, President of the European Council Antonio Costa and Head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.
On May 3, Vladimir Zelensky arrived in Yerevan, although his visit was not announced in advance. He said that he would discuss with the Europeans the strengthening of air defense, support for the Ukrainian energy system, as well as "accelerating financing." He also promised to talk about diplomatic efforts to "end the war with dignity" and further pressure on Russia, although it is not very clear how one combines with the other.
After his arrival, he held a number of bilateral talks. First, I had a brief conversation with representatives of the host party — Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Alain Simonyan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The latter then published a post, which was accompanied by emojis with the flags of Ukraine and Armenia.
Then Zelensky met with the prime ministers of Finland, Norway, the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom in a bilateral format. He thanked all of them for the financial support they had already provided, demanded new tranches, and discussed cooperation on drone production. I also talked with the head of the British government, Keir Starmer, about the fight against the Russian "shadow fleet."
On the afternoon of May 4, Zelensky participated in the opening ceremony of the ENP summit. Here he threatened that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could strike at the Victory Day parade in Moscow in five days. According to him, Ukrainian drones "can also fly there." At the same time, he said that it was necessary to find an "effective diplomatic format" that would include Europe's presence at the negotiating table.
On the evening of May 4, Zelensky will hold a new series of bilateral talks — he will talk with the leaders of Poland, Canada and even Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. A meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is also planned. A separate session dedicated to the support of Ukraine by the Europeans and their allies is scheduled to take place on May 5.
What you need to know
The current events in Yerevan raise many questions even without Zelensky's visit. Armenia is a member of the EAEU and the CSTO, and the Russian side has repeatedly stressed that participation in both European and Eurasian integration projects is impossible. Nevertheless, Yerevan defiantly declares its desire for European integration.
Things are even more complicated with Zelensky's visit. The fact is that Armenia formally remains an ally of Russia, and the 102nd Russian military base is located in Gyumri. However, Zelensky can come to Armenia quite calmly and with great fanfare. It is also interesting that earlier the Ukrainian side in Transcaucasia did not hide its sympathies for Azerbaijan. Kiev has repeatedly compared Crimea and Donbass with Karabakh, saying that they support the principle of territorial integrity.
102nd Russian military base in Gyumri
Zelensky, against the background of the aggravation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, was photographed at the gas stations of an Azerbaijani company. Stories surfaced in the Western press that Kiev supplied Baku with white phosphorus, which is used to equip bombs and mines. Interestingly, during the current visit, Armenian journalists asked Zelensky a question about that story, but he did not answer anything.
All this, however, did not bother the Armenian leadership. Nikol Pashinyan said back in the summer of 2023 that Yerevan was not a supporter of Moscow on the Ukrainian issue. "Of course, this has never been said out loud, but I think it's noticeable: we are not Russia's ally in the war with Ukraine. Our perception of this war, this conflict is a concern, because it directly affects all our relations," he stressed.
In October 2023, the first personal meeting between Pashinyan and Zelensky took place. They talked on the sidelines of the summit of the same European Political Community, which was then held in Granada, Spain. No significant results of the negotiations were reported, but from the point of view of symbolism, the gesture turned out to be noticeable.
Since then, political contacts have only become closer. Pashinyan's common-law wife Anna Hakobyan flew to Kiev for the first ladies' summit, Parliament Speaker Alain Simonyan met with his Ukrainian counterpart Ruslan Stefanchuk in Dublin, and Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan spoke with the head of the office of the Ukrainian president, Andriy Ermak, and with Ukrainian security advisers.
In 2023, Armenia also began sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The first cargo included smartphones and tablets, at that time it was noted that the equipment could fall into the hands of armed men who control drones. The second batch contained medicines and medicines that were sent to the Kiev military hospital, where wounded soldiers are being treated. The last delivery to date dates back to March of this year, when Yerevan handed over several mobile generators to Nezalezhnaya.
What the experts say
At the same time, exactly one year ago, the country's course towards European integration was fixed at the legislative level in Armenia, recalls Caucasian scholar Artur Atayev. And in the package with it, according to the expert, Ukraine's support is mandatory.
— If you want to join the EU, you must help Kiev. Accordingly, Armenia accepts Zelensky on its territory. The country's authorities are consistently distancing themselves from Russia, although they are not severing all ties yet," he emphasizes.
A lot will depend on the results of the parliamentary elections to be held in Armenia on June 7, the source adds.
— If the ruling Civil Contract party wins, then this course will continue, and relations with Russia will continue to deteriorate. If the opposition celebrates success, then some revision of foreign policy guidelines will follow. So far, sociologists have called the victory of the ruling party the most likely option," Ataev notes.
In turn, former member of the Armenian Parliament Arman Abovyan draws attention to the fact that Armenia remains a de jure ally of Russia. In such circumstances, Zelensky's invitation is defiant.
— His visit will inevitably damage relations with Russia. We also well remember Ukraine's position on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Kiev supplied Baku with phosphorus, which was used to burn our soldiers. Kiev was the first to congratulate Azerbaijan on the capture of Karabakh. In fact, Zelensky is not only an anti—Russian, but also an anti-Armenian politician," he argues.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
