The expert estimated the probability of Brent oil falling below $100 per barrel.

The price of Brent crude oil is held at around $123.9 per barrel, reflecting a significant geopolitical premium imposed by the market due to the risks of supply disruptions. Ilya Rusyaev, a business consultant and founder of the Rusyaev Club business community, told Izvestia about this on April 30.

According to him, the current dynamics is primarily related to concerns about supply restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the EIA estimates, about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day passed through it in 2024 — about 20% of global consumption. Alternative routes, including pipelines, can compensate for only a small part of this volume.

"The tension in the negotiations between the United States and Iran is increasing price pressure in several directions at once. Firstly, the market puts down the risk of a reduction in Iranian oil supplies. Secondly, there remains uncertainty about the stability of shipping in the region as a whole. Thirdly, an additional "risk premium" is being formed, as traders and insurers increase reserves and lay down potential force majeure," the expert explained.

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Rising oil prices have an impact on global inflation across the entire supply chain, from fuel to the chemical industry and logistics. According to IMF estimates, a steady increase in oil prices by 10% during the year could add about 0.4 percentage points to global inflation and reduce global GDP by 0.1–0.2%. The World Bank, in turn, predicts a 16% increase in the commodity index in 2026, and an increase in energy prices of about 24%.

Rusyaev stressed that a return of Brent to a level below $ 100 is possible, but in the current conditions it is not a baseline scenario. This requires de-escalation between the United States and Iran, the restoration of stable shipping through Hormuz, and a reduction in insurance and transportation rates.

According to him, if the current level of tension persists, the market will remain in the range of an increased "risk premium", and scenarios for price declines will depend primarily on political decisions, not market factors.

Separately, the expert noted that companies should include several scenarios in their planning, from persistently high prices above $120 to a possible pullback below $100 with an improvement in the geopolitical situation.

On the same day, it was reported that the price of Brent crude oil exceeded the level of $126 per barrel for the first time since March 2022. As of 9:30 a.m. Moscow time, the peak price of June oil futures rose by 7.1% relative to the previous close, to $126.41.