The expert noted the growing imbalance in the Russian labor market

In the first quarter of 2026, the Russian labor market entered a phase of restrained equilibrium: with record-low unemployment and a high number of workers, the unified logic of supply and demand stops working. Ilona Platonova, an analytics manager at Adviros, told Izvestia on May 4.

According to the company's research, the labor force in Russia has reached 76.3 million people, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 2.1%. At the same time, the overall demand for staff does not show steady growth. Analysts note that the market is not expanding, but is becoming more segmented: staff shortages persist in some areas, while competition among applicants is increasing in others.

The most noticeable shortage of personnel remains in mass and linear professions. Sales vacancies account for up to 12% of all employer requests, and sales and cashier positions remain among the most difficult to close. On average, there are fewer than four resumes for such vacancies.

An acute shortage of personnel persists in medicine. Over the past year, the number of vacancies for doctors has increased by 20%, with only 3-4 resumes per position.

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There is also a shortage among working professions, including heavy truck drivers, welders and locksmiths. According to analysts, the demand for welding specialists increased by 18% in the first quarter of 2026. The average salary of welders reached 180 thousand rubles per month, and the income growth of highly skilled workers in Moscow and St. Petersburg amounted to 15-21%.

At the same time, the opposite situation is developing in the office segments. In marketing, PR, finance, and administrative positions, the number of applicants significantly exceeds the number of vacancies. In marketing and PR, competition is particularly high: there can be up to 27 resumes per vacancy, and for individual positions this figure reaches 44.

An additional indicator of high demand was the reduction in the closing time of vacancies. In sales, this figure decreased by 42%, in engineering specialties — by 37%, and among working professions — by 33%.

"We see that the market no longer works according to a single logic. In fact, these are several parallel markets: there remains a shortage in mass and production roles, while there is an excess of candidates for office roles. In the coming quarters, this differentiation will only intensify: companies will have to segment hiring more precisely, and applicants will have to take into account that universal demand no longer exists," Platonova summarized.

On April 27, Roman Yerkhov, CEO of TuBi recruitment company, said that the reduction of the personnel reserve in Russia is systemic and is associated with several long-term factors at once. Thus, the reduction is influenced by the demographic situation, increased competition for personnel and the development of technology.

On the same day, it was reported that the personnel reserve in Russia is rapidly declining: in 2025, it decreased to 4.4 million people — by 9%. This is 415 thousand less than a year earlier.