Overstocked wheelbarrow: car dealers' drains have stopped decreasing in the Russian Federation

In Russia, the decline in car stocks at dealers and distributors, which continued over the past year, has noticeably slowed down. Currently, the volume of waste is estimated at 400 thousand cars, which is significantly less than at the beginning of 2025. Experts and dealers do not rule out a repeat of the situation with overstocking of car warehouses, especially if the demand for new cars does not stabilize. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Warehouse pause

In the first quarter, stocks of new passenger cars in dealers' and distributors' warehouses decreased by 5.8 thousand units, said Sergey Tselikov, director of the Autostat analytical agency. At the same time, over the past year, the volume of "warehouse" machines decreased by about 130 thousand units. Thus, the drains of new passenger cars have stopped decreasing, the expert stated.

Photo: TASS/Valentin Antonov

— From December of last year to March of this year, stocks of new cars have been balancing at about the same level. We are not seeing a further decline yet," said Sergey Tselikov.

According to Autostat estimates, there are currently about 400,000 new cars in the warehouses of dealers and distributors. This is noticeably less than at the beginning of last year, when the total volume of wastewater, according to various sources, reached 600-700 thousand units.

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The equilibrium state

The main increase in the number of cars in warehouses (approximately 380 thousand units) occurred in 2023-2024, the head of Autostat noted. This was due to the active entry of new car brands (mainly Chinese) into our market and the expansion of the dealer network. The growing number of car dealerships required an increase in the number of cars in their warehouses, he explained. Moreover, in previous years, the volume increase was primarily due to imports, Sergey Tselikov noted.

Now the situation with car stock at dealers and distributors has reached a certain equilibrium state, the general director of Autostat believes.

— The stock of cars, which is currently estimated at about 400 thousand units, will be enough for three to four months of sales. This is quite a normal indicator for the car market," he said in an interview with Izvestia.

Photo: TASS/Vasily Fedosenko

Sergey Tselikov said that the maximum volume of sales of stock cars in the first quarter was in January and February. Then the structure of the market for new passenger cars began to gradually shift towards more "fresh" copies, he noted. The general director of Autostat told Izvestia that, according to the results of the first three months, out of almost 265,000 cars sold, the share of 2023 models was about 1%, cars produced in 2024 accounted for about 9%, and last year's cars immediately occupied 66% of the market.

— If we take the last four weeks of April, the share of 2024 models decreased to 5.6%, and cars produced in 2025 — to 35%. At the same time, cars manufactured in 2026 accounted for 59.3%," said Sergey Tselikov.

Photo: TASS/Alexander Ryumin

Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto, agrees that the current stock of 400,000 cars is not a critical mass for the market, but rather an indicator of balance.

Overstocking risk, demand and production

Dealers confirm analysts' conclusions about the slowdown in the rate of decline in stock balances of cars on trading floors. According to Nikolai Ivanov, director of the New car sales department at Rolf, this is largely due to the fact that local production sites have reached planned volumes and have begun to actively saturate the market with cars. He did not rule out the possibility of excessive runoff in the market, noting that the development of the stock situation depends on the general dynamics of demand for new machines.

"If the market shows a decline in the coming months, for example, it drops below the level of 100,000 cars per month, then the risk of overstocking warehouses really increases,— Nikolai Ivanov told Izvestia.

Photo: Global Look Press/Bulkin Sergey

An active reduction in inventory last year occurred in the wake of pent-up demand, when people were in a hurry to buy cars for future use, fearing increased recycling and rising rates, Irina Frank believes. Now this effect is almost exhausted, she notes.

— There is a risk of an increase in inventory balances: if imports continue at the same pace, and demand suddenly drops due to the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation, dealers may again face pressure from unsold cars. But so far this is just a fear, not a fait accompli," the expert emphasizes.

Not everyone will survive: every tenth car dealer may leave the market by the end of the year.

Low sales and internal competition reduce profitability

Sergey Tselikov also expresses concerns that the runoff may start to grow in the future. However, Russian car manufacturers will have a significant impact on this, he believes.

Photo: Global Look Press/Oksana Korol

— Now imports have a significantly lower impact on the market than a couple of years ago, and to a large extent the runoff is formed due to local models. Therefore, much will depend on how flexibly domestic automakers will be able to adjust their production plans. It is unlikely that they will "step on the rake" and work at the warehouse. Nevertheless, there is a certain risk of overstocking," says the CEO of Autostat.

Some Russian car factories adjusted their plans in advance. As the head of AVTOVAZ Maxim Sokolov stated in early January, this year the company intends to produce a total of about 400 thousand cars, despite the fact that it is capable of producing up to 600-650 thousand cars per year.

— We produce not as much as we can, but as much as the market needs, — Maxim Sokolov emphasized.

What will happen to the prices?

In case of an increase in car stocks, dealers will be forced to adjust their pricing policy, Nikolai Ivanov is convinced. First of all, by increasing discounts and marketing support, which can lead to lower actual prices, he believes.

Photo: Global Look Press/Shatokhina Natalia

Stopping the decline in stock flows means that dealers no longer need emergency sales, Irina Frank emphasizes. The era of big warehouse discounts is coming to an end, she believes.

— Previously, dealers were forced to dump in order to free up space and return the money. Now the balance of supply and demand has stabilized, and the incentive for deep discounts has disappeared. I expect that in the coming months prices will move from volatility to a smooth creeping increase in the range of 5-10%, depending on the brand and model," Irina Frank shared her forecast with Izvestia.