Macron and his team: why are European leaders coming to Armenia
Yerevan will become a place of pilgrimage for Western leaders in early May. First, it will host the summit of the European Political Community, followed by the first Armenia–EU summit. In parallel, French President Emmanuel Macron will pay a state visit to the republic. Experts say that Brussels and Paris are doing everything to ensure the victory of the ruling Armenian party in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Izvestia investigated the situation.
There is such a party
Yerevan will become a place of pilgrimage for Western leaders in early May, with a summit of the European Political Community to be held there on May 4. I must say that the ENP does not have significant powers, and no decisions are made within this organization. In fact, it is a discussion platform and an occasion for European leaders and their allies to meet.
At the same time, the ENP summits have important symbolic significance, and they are periodically held in those countries where pro-European forces face difficult electoral campaigns. For example, such a congress was held in Moldova with great fanfare in 2023, when local elites were preparing for the electoral cycle, which included parliamentary and presidential elections. Then the EU representatives actually supported Maia Sandu and her party.
Participants of the European Political Community (EPC) summit during a joint photo session at Mimi Castle
In addition to this meeting, the first Armenia–EU bilateral summit will be held in Yerevan on May 4-5. It is emphasized that the agenda will include "military conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, the creation of global transport corridors and prosperity in the South Caucasus." The President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, and the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, confirmed their participation.
Following the results of the event, European leaders can be expected to announce the allocation of new portions of financial assistance to the Transcaucasian republic and some additional investment projects. There will certainly be statements about the successes in liberalizing the visa regime and Armenia's overall bright European integration prospects.
French President Emmanuel Macron will pay a state visit in parallel with the summits on May 4-5. He will take part in pan-European meetings in Yerevan, as well as hold bilateral talks with Nikol Pashinyan. The trip should result in the signing of a strategic partnership agreement between France and Armenia.
It is also expected that Paris and Yerevan will make progress on certain issues. For example, the parties may announce the purchase of military equipment by the Transcaucasian republic. This topic has long been on the agenda of the two countries. In late April, in preparation for Macron's visit, French Defense Ministry representative Alice Rufo visited Armenia and met with Prime Minister Pashinyan.
Another important topic may be energy. Armenia is currently considering the construction of a modular nuclear power plant, and negotiations are underway with Russia's Rosatom, the United States, China, South Korea, and France. At the same time, in March, Nikol Pashinyan participated in the atomic energy summit in Paris, where he did not skimp on warm words addressed to the organizers.
Crossroads of roads
The main and most obvious goal of all this activism is to support the ruling Armenian party. The fact is that on June 7, the country will hold the most important parliamentary elections, which will determine the configuration of power for the next five years. The clear winner is still unclear, opinion polls show that Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party and Strong Armenia, which advocates closer ties with Russia, are fighting for leadership.
I must say that Armenia is already actually living in an election campaign mode. The head of government travels almost every week to the regions, where he receives new and repaired roads, kindergartens and schools. On April 25, a large concert dedicated to the Citizen's Day holiday established by the current authorities was held in the center of Yerevan.
At the same time, there are enough problems on the foreign policy circuit. Pashinyan calls the establishment of peace one of his achievements, but relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey are still not fully settled, new threats are periodically heard from Baku and Ankara, while Karabakh is lost.
In addition, the recent visit of the Armenian leader to Moscow, where Pashinyan had a heated public discussion with the Russian leadership, turned out to be scandalous. In such circumstances, the Armenian authorities, through a series of negotiations with the Europeans, will probably try to show that the republic still has foreign policy successes.
Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan
Western leaders have their own obvious interests in Transcaucasia. Firstly, Armenia continues to be considered an ally of Russia in the region, the republic is a member of the most important Eurasian associations — the CSTO and the EAEU. Accordingly, Brussels is interested in increasing the distance between Yerevan and Moscow.
Secondly, Western countries would like to sever ties between Iran and Russia. Last year, the decision to create a free trade zone between the EAEU and the Islamic Republic came into force, while Tehran's land connection with the union is possible only through the territory of Armenia. In such circumstances, Yerevan's drift towards the West will undermine the implementation of this agreement.
In addition, the European Union is currently in a difficult relationship with the American administration. And Washington quickly broke into the Transcaucasian agenda last year when it helped Armenia and Azerbaijan initialize the text of the peace treaty. At the same time, the three sides agreed to create a "Trump road" that would connect Baku with Nakhichevan and Turkey. It is clear that the Europeans would not like to stay away from such important events.
Finally, another important point concerns the creation of new logistics corridors. In particular, China is developing the One Belt, One Road project, part of which is to run through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and Transcaucasia. Further, goods from China will flow to the EU through Turkey. If Brussels can strengthen its influence on this route, it will take a more advantageous negotiating position in the dialogue with Beijing.
Playing on two balalaika
Armenia formally remains an ally of Russia, but hosts those leaders who dream of Moscow's defeat, former member of the Armenian Parliament Arman Abovyan draws attention.
— I think we will hear a full set of standard promises for such cases, starting from visa-free travel and ending with a heavenly life someday within the EU. In fact, the Europeans are interested in forming a tough anti-Eurasian bloc against Russia and Iran. They consider Armenia as another bargaining chip in their games," he believes.
In the West, they are looking for someone who "will follow the path of Georgia or Ukraine," the source believes, expressing the hope that Armenia "will not step on this rake."
— I believe that our voters will soberly assess the situation. Moreover, the Russian side has made it clear that it does not intend to tolerate playing on two balalaikas. Moving towards the European Union will simply blow up our economy," the expert emphasizes.
In turn, Caucasus scholar Artur Ataev notes that the main political event of the fifth anniversary is coming to Armenia, which is taking place against the background of cooling relations with Russia and intensifying dialogue with the EU. That is why the Europeans are coming to Yerevan to support Pashinyan and his party.
— I remind you that last year the republic adopted a law on the country's course towards European integration. It is clear that there is no economic basis for long-term close relations, but the political foundation has been laid. At the same time, I note that the ruling party in Armenia still looks like the favorite of the race, and opinion polls prefer it," the expert points out.
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