Spain has taken the toughest position in the EU on the Iranian conflict. And here's why

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez found himself at the center of a conflict with the United States after he refused to support a military operation against Iran and provide American forces with bases in the country. At the same time, according to media reports, Washington is discussing options for punishing Madrid, including expulsion from NATO. Why Spain is the most fiercely opposed to the US Iran campaign and what this means for Europe is in the Izvestia article.

Political confrontation

• The aggravation of relations between Washington and Madrid began after US President Donald Trump in March this year threatened to completely sever trade ties with Spain due to its refusal to increase military spending to 5% of GDP. At the same time, disagreements between the allies reinforce the internal split in NATO and the European Union. France actually sided with Spain, demonstrating its willingness to support a line more independent of the United States, while Germany took the opposite position. Chancellor Friedrich Merz even promised Washington to try to convince Madrid to increase defense spending, which Spain perceived as undermining European solidarity and pressure in the interests of the United States.

• Additional tension was caused by Spain's position against the US and Israeli operations in Iran, as well as its refusal to provide military bases and airspace. Sanchez has publicly spoken out against violations of international law. Sanchez recalled the 2003 war in Iraq, which led to mass protests in Spain and the defeat of the government in the 2004 elections. Since then, anti-war sentiment has been strong in the country, and support for U.S. military operations can be politically dangerous. Spain also opposed military action in Lebanon, where three Indonesians under the command of the Spanish peacekeeping corps were killed in late March.

• In Spain, a coalition policy is important: the government relies on leftist parties that strongly oppose US military action. The leading forces are the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)— the Social Democrats, as well as coalitions to their left, such as Podemos and the United Left (IU). Washington's support could destroy the coalition.

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• Despite falling ratings and scandals, Sanchez expects that Trump's unpopularity in Spain will play into his hands. The recent regional elections in Castile and Leon showed his party growing by two seats, although a fall was expected.

The economic aspect

• Spain's policy is also determined by economic ties with the UK, both through mutual investments and through funds holding Spanish debt securities. Spain has one of the largest public debts in the EU — the country ranks fifth after Greece, Italy, France and Belgium in terms of debt obligations. In the third quarter of 2025, Spain's national debt reached a record €1.7 trillion and declined by the end of the year only due to the country's GDP growth.

• The risks of Spanish bonds are hedged on the London Stock Exchange, which, along with Wall Street, is the largest center of operations for global capital. The conflict between the United States and Iran not only led to panic in the markets, which directly affected the performance of the London Stock Exchange and Wall Street, but also put pressure on the Spanish economy: the IBEX35 index of the most liquid Spanish companies continued to fall in the last week of April. In these circumstances, ending the conflict in the Middle East and stability in the markets is financially beneficial for Spain.

• In addition, the United Kingdom also opposed the US military campaign against Iran, Trump even made several sarcastic remarks about British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. So Madrid's position can also be seen as following the course of London, on which the Spanish economy strongly depends.

This is not an isolated conflict

• As a result, after the outbreak of the war against Iran, US relations worsened not only with Spain, but also with Great Britain. London also initially refused to provide Washington with bases, then allowed limited use of airfields, but this did not relieve tension.

• Among Washington's possible steps towards London, the media mention the termination of American support for British sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, claimed by Argentina. At the same time, Argentine President Javier Miley remains one of Trump's closest allies.

• Trump has warned NATO allies of a "very bad" future if they do not help secure the Strait of Hormuz. However, European countries reacted cautiously and refused to send warships to this important trade route. Washington is considering withdrawing from the North Atlantic Alliance, claiming that the allies failed its "test" when they were asked to help the United States.

The US and Iran have not reached a deal. Why is this important?

• It is unlikely that the United States will withdraw from NATO, but even the very suggestion of withdrawal has already caused serious damage to the reputation of the alliance. Trump's doubts about the alliance destabilize European security planning and embolden opponents.

Public sentiment

• Spain has become one of the leaders in Europe in distancing itself from US politics: according to a Politico poll, 51% of Spaniards consider the United States a "threat" to Europe — this is the highest indicator. Also, 56% strongly disapprove of the war between the United States and Israel against Iran. Only 22% support neutrality, 19% support military assistance, and 16% support diplomatic assistance. At the same time, 94% of Spaniards advocate greater independence of the EU, even at the cost of economic losses.

• Spaniards also support the strengthening of Europe: more than 96% are in favor of energy independence, and 77% are in favor of a pan—European army. However, anti-militarist sentiments are strong within Spain: more than half of the population is against compulsory military service (it was abolished in 2001). The government's position coincides with public sentiment and reflects the general trend towards greater European independence.

Limited pressure

• Trade between the United States and Spain remains significant: in 2025, the United States exported about $26 billion worth of goods, imported about $21 billion, and the total trade turnover was about $47 billion. Spain supplies machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical products, food, and transportation to the United States, with more than half of exports coming from industrial equipment and chemicals. However, the Spanish authorities remain calm, counting on the support of their EU colleagues, as well as the United Kingdom, which also managed to spoil relations with the United States.

• Spain is much more dependent on trade with the European Union: about 75% of its exports go to Europe, of which 62% go to EU countries. The United States accounts for only about 5% of Spanish exports, which is less than a number of other European countries. In addition, due to the EU's common trade policy, any restrictions from the United States will affect not only Spain, but also the entire European Union, which makes the implementation of such threats legally and politically difficult.

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• At the same time, the United States will not be able to force Spain to be excluded from NATO. The founding Treaty of the alliance does not contain mechanisms for suspending membership or expelling countries, although states can voluntarily withdraw from NATO one year after notifying the allies.

Washington's rhetoric about sanctions and punishment seems limited in a practical sense. The United States is bound to the EU by trade agreements, while NATO operates on the basis of consensus. Pressure remains an instrument of political signal. The real result is a cooling of relations and a growing distance between Washington and individual European capitals. For Trump, this episode fits into the general line of pressure on the allies. For Spain, this is part of an internal and external strategy that relies on public opinion and long-term calculations.

What does this mean?

• The reaction of Europe as a whole to the war against Iran is mixed. For example, Germany and Italy took a more cautious position: they did not directly support the war, but also did not sharply oppose the United States, given their internal political and economic constraints. However, Spain's position may become an example for other European countries and resume discussions on the need to reduce dependence on Washington.

• With the realization that the US commitment to NATO and European security has weakened under Trump, EU leaders are discussing how best to use European legislation to provide mutual assistance in the event of an attack on one of the countries. European leaders have already instructed the European Commission to prepare an action plan for this case. This article has been used only once, by France after the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015.

When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, an American political scientist;

• Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the ISC RAS, an Americanist.