Nabiullina predicted the acceleration of global inflation due to the war in Iran

The war in Iran, according to the basic forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, will lead to an acceleration of global inflation. This was announced on April 24 by the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, at a press conference following a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia.

"According to our baseline scenario, the conflict [in Iran] will lead to lower global economic growth, a global increase in logistics and energy costs, accelerated inflation, and higher [interest] rates in the world," she said.

According to Nabiullina, in the updated forecast, the Central Bank raised oil prices to $65 per barrel for 2026, as well as the forecast of the cost of exports. Imports, as explained by the head of the regulator, will also grow due to an increase in world prices, although this level will not be as significant as export figures. Nabiullina also predicted an increase in the foreign trade surplus.

"The foreign trade surplus will be significantly higher than we expected in February. At the same time, the impact of this additional export revenue on the exchange rate will be largely offset by the mechanism of the budget rule," she said.

Nabiullina also warned that prolonging the war in the Middle East would negatively affect the Russian economy. In her opinion, the consequences of rising costs may be more serious than the benefits of increased exports and a stronger ruble.

In the opposite direction: will inflation in Russia decrease due to the war in the Middle East

Price growth has slowed down, and there is a chance that the conflict will slow it down even more noticeably.

Nabiullina said on April 16 that there were inflationary risks amid supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the head of the regulator, many countries expect global inflation, and the banks of the countries also envisage a more stringent monetary policy or a slow easing.

Atif Kubursi, an economics professor at McMaster University, said on March 18 that the war in the Middle East had become a serious blow to the global economy. According to the expert, this was influenced by the import tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump and the special operation of the United States and Israel in Iran, which disrupted oil supplies through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.