Palantir has ushered in a new era in military deterrence. What does this mean?

A few days ago, the defense AI company Palantir, a key Pentagon contractor that has already proven itself in the war with Iran, published a 22-point document on the social network about the new role of AI in defense. The document had a noisy effect, as it contains claims that the capabilities of artificial intelligence are replacing both soft power and nuclear deterrence. About why the manifesto will mark the beginning of a new era in defense – in the material of Izvestia.

What is the manifesto about?

• The manifesto, published on April 19 on Palantir's page on the social network X, is an extract from the book "The Technological Republic, Flexible Beliefs and the Future of the West" by Alex Karp, CEO of the AI company. The author explicitly states that Silicon Valley, in response to the development opportunities provided to it, is obliged to participate in the defense of the state, and engineers are the new soldiers. He also says that the modern world has demonstrated the limits that soft power can achieve, and it's time to move on to hard power. However, here we are talking not so much about military threats, but rather about the increased development of AI technologies in the service of defense tasks. The manifesto notes that "the opponents will not wait." In addition, it is necessary to introduce general mobilization and the refusal of voluntary service, but this idea is associated with the possibility of entering the war if "the risk and price of this war is shared by the whole people."

It also highlights the fallacy of the disarmament of Germany and Japan and the excessive commitment of the latter to the ideas of pacifism. So the author ties the need to have strong allies to the idea of a strong United States. At the same time, Karp notes, "for almost a century, the world has been living without a military clash of great powers. At least three generations — billions of people, their children, and now their grandchildren — have never known a world war" (World War II ended just 81 years ago – Ed.).

• It is noteworthy that nuclear deterrence is being replaced by the era of AI-based deterrence. And the remark that declaring all cultures equal was a mistake and some of them did more than others, along with the remark about the need to abandon inclusivity and pluralism, alarmed the expert community. Below are a few points of the manifesto.

• The limits of soft power and lofty speeches alone have been fully exposed. It takes little moral charm for free and democratic societies to win. Hard power is needed. And the hard power of the 21st century will be built on software.
• The question is not whether AI-based weapons will be created. The question is who exactly will create it and for what purposes. Our opponents will not take a pause for the sake of theatrical arguments about the permissibility of technologies that are critical to the army and national security. They'll just go ahead.
• National service should become a universal duty. As a society, we should seriously consider abandoning an army built entirely on volunteers and entering the next war only if the risk and price of this war are shared by the entire nation.
• The atomic age is coming to an end. One era of deterrence, the nuclear one, is coming to an end, and in its place begins a new era of deterrence built on AI.
• The post-war neutralization of Germany and Japan should be reviewed. The decontamination of Germany was an overreaction, for the consequences of which Europe is now paying a heavy price. A similar, largely demonstrative commitment to Japanese pacifism, if maintained, could also change the balance of power in Asia.
• Some cultures have produced truly vital achievements, while others have remained dysfunctional and regressive. Today, all cultures are declared equal. Criticism and value judgments are prohibited. But this new dogma glosses over a simple fact: some cultures — and even individual subcultures — have created genuine miracles. Others turned out to be mediocre at best, and regressive and destructive at worst.
• We must resist the cheap lure of empty, emasculated pluralism. For the past half century, we in America and more broadly in the West have refused to define national cultures in the name of inclusivity. But inclusivity in what exactly?

The meaning of the manifesto

• The primary importance of the manifesto is ensured by the identity of its author. Palantir, whose CEO is Alex Karp, is not an ordinary AI company, but the main contractor of the US Department of War, which was involved during operations in Ukraine, Venezuela and Iran. It's a mix of programming, predictive analytics, innovative software, AI, and weaponry (we've discussed its specifics in more detail here). The fact that it was Palantir who came out with radical beliefs in the public space suggests that this is just a test balloon designed to show a reaction, and in the absence of protest, they will be implemented.

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• The document outlined a completely new approach to defense. The rejection of soft power and the transition to hard power, the transition from nuclear deterrence to programmatic deterrence together make it possible to reduce the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and the unpredictable consequences of this step. This will be facilitated by the rejection of moral and ethical assessments in favor of cold calculation, even if this leads to great human losses. At the same time, the initial stage of military operations will become less noticeable: information warfare, cyberattacks, and drone warfare will be more widely used. However, in the future, a threat identified by artificial intelligence and a reaction to it without discussing its acceptability and expediency in terms of consequences will lead to large-scale crises. A simplified example of such a crisis, partially provoked by similar AI, can be observed in the world today due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

• In its manifesto, the company also calls for stopping condemning politicians and public figures, including for mistakes and miscalculations, believing that weak infallibility should be replaced by rigid confidence. Politicians and elites should stop focusing on the opinion of voters, and do what they consider necessary. If, according to Karp's plan, these politicians and elites are led by a company with all the capabilities of artificial intelligence, then a phenomenal system will develop in which a militaristic state with universal military service and a low threshold for war will be run by a private company in the role of a gray cardinal.

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• The last points of the manifesto about cultural differences and the rejection of inclusivity are particularly alarming to American and European experts. This concept has already been called technofascism, digital dictatorship, and is being tried on by the Mussolini regime. Moreover, there is an attempt to "sell" control of algorithms, mobilization, military and technological power instead of the ideas of democracy. And all of this, including government and migration security, is in the hands of a private company that has already signed contracts with many governments. So, the British Parliament has seen these risks and is calling for reducing the number of contracts with Palantir.

• So far, we are only seeing the beginning, trial throws, and Palantir algorithms are not perfect yet. However, in the absence of counteraction, their effectiveness will increase. A different scenario is possible if, following the results of the not-so-successful Iranian campaign, the White House decides to blame the Pentagon's AI contractors for the not-so-loud and vivid "victory."