Crisis direction: how the United States and Iran approach the second round of negotiations

The truce between the United States and Iran is only a few days away. Pakistan remains the main mediator in the negotiations between the opponents. Moscow is also in constant contact with Islamabad and other regional players on the situation in the Middle East, Russian Ambassador Albert Khorev told Izvestia. However, it is still unknown whether the second round will take place at all. The day before, US President Donald Trump said that the American delegation was going to Islamabad, while Tehran claimed that there would be no negotiations. One of the key obstacles is the naval blockade of Hormuz. Tehran has closed the strait again, and Washington is stepping up patrols. Izvestia investigated where the "red lines" in this conflict lie and whether the parties will be able to agree on an extension of the truce after April 22.

Will there be a second round of talks between the United States and Iran

The two—week truce between the United States and Iran is inexorably expiring - by April 22, it is already counting for days and hours. The first round of negotiations in Islamabad on April 11 ended in failure, although work on de-escalation continued. A few days later, the commander-in-chief of the Pakistani army, Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran. Through him, the Americans have put forward new proposals, which are currently being considered by the Iranian side. And on April 19, the head of the White House announced that his representatives were again heading to Islamabad for talks with Tehran. The composition of the delegation is the same: Trump's special representative Steve Witkoff, the son-in-law of the American leader Jared Kushner and US Vice President Jay Dee Vance (although some sources claimed that Vance was not going, and because of technical problems). Immediately, on the eve of the new meeting, the Foreign Ministers of Pakistan and Iran, Ishaq Dar and Abbas Araqchi, checked their watches by phone.

Photo: REUTERS/Aaron Schwartz

Of course, it is not only Pakistan that is interested in resolving the large-scale conflict in the Middle East, which has affected the entire global economy. The Russian side also regularly contacts its Pakistani partners on the situation in the Middle East and on many other pressing issues on the regional and international agenda, although it does not act as a direct mediator in the negotiations, Russian Ambassador to Islamabad Albert Khorev told Izvestia.

— From the very beginning of the unprovoked armed aggression of the United States and Israel against Iran, our country has made every effort to prevent further escalation of the conflict. The Russian leadership is in constant contact with its regional partners, including Iran, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Moscow has consistently stressed the need for an immediate cessation of any hostile actions that affect the countries of the Persian Gulf, especially with regard to civilian infrastructure," the diplomat concluded.

With so many significant regional players, Islamabad's choice may have initially seemed somewhat surprising, but in fact its participation in the negotiations still yields some results.

"It has been repeatedly noted that Russia fully supports the continuation of political and diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran through the mediation of Pakistan," Khorev stressed. - Russia highly appreciates the positive role of Islamabad in providing a platform and creating an atmosphere for Iranian-American negotiations. We hope that the parties will take a responsible approach and will be able to agree on the modalities for a long-term settlement of the conflict.

Photo: REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro

However, the statements of the parties do not add optimism. Over the weekend, Trump said that negotiations were underway and that everything was "going very well." At the same time, of course, he did not fail to add that the Iranians "played too much" and after 47 years, that is, since the Islamic Revolution, they will no longer get away with it. The threat of attacks on bridges and power plants is back in force. The head of the White House did not give an unambiguous answer whether he was determined to extend the truce. At least, according to Mike Waltz, the US Permanent Representative to the UN, this possibility still remains and "all options are on the table."

— They can indeed agree on an extension of the silence regime, but reaching a long-term deal is still unlikely. There are too many contradictions between Tehran and Washington that they cannot overcome even at the level of individual issues, not to mention the conclusion of a permanent peace treaty," orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.

What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz

The Iranian delegation to Islamabad does not seem to be in a hurry. The country's Foreign Ministry had previously explicitly stated the suspension of negotiations due to Washington's maximalist demands. Later, the Iranian agencies clarified that one of the main obstacles to the continuation of negotiations is the naval blockade by the United States.

Photo: TASS/Ebrahim Noroozi

Clouds are gathering over Hormuz again, and both sides are taking advantage of the difficult shipping situation, as they say, "to the fullest." No sooner had Tehran opened the strait, and Brent crude oil dropped to a relatively pleasant $88 per barrel, than the gates of the most important waterway closed again. The IRGC blocked access from the evening of April 18 until the complete lifting of the US naval blockade. Moreover, the approach to the Strait of Hormuz there will be regarded as cooperation with the enemy, and the vessel that violated the order will become a target altogether. In particular, Iran considers attempts by the United States to clear the waters to be a violation of the truce.

According to US intelligence and military estimates, Iran still has over 60% of missile launchers and about 40% of attack UAVs, which is enough to block shipping. It is reported that the IRGC has already fired on two vessels - and, as it turned out, under the Indian flag, which created unnecessary friction with a BRICS and SCO partner and could jeopardize the extension of the truce. The United States, for its part, has deployed AH-64 Apache attack helicopters to patrol the strait. Moreover, according to The Wall Street Journal, the assault units of the American ships blocking Hormuz are preparing to board and seize oil tankers associated with Iran in international waters. At the same time, as the WSJ writes, Trump no longer supports the idea of seizing the island of Kharq, which is important for Iran, fearing significant losses.

— Most likely, this is an attempt to "stuff the price" before the negotiations and show Trump that the situation in the strait area is controlled primarily by Tehran. In addition, they are afraid that the United States will start hunting for Iran's commercial vessels in other seas and oceans, and therefore they show what such a scenario is fraught with," Tsukanov argues.

Photo: TASS/Asghar Besharati

The confusion over the Strait of Hormuz forced the United States not only to lift restrictions on Russian oil operations, but also to extend this license. The Ministry of Finance has again authorized the sale, transportation and unloading of Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto tankers between April 17 and May 16.

Hormuz is only a consequence of the deep contradictions between the United States and Iran. Neither side can claim that it has fully achieved its goals, and there are still no cardinal changes in the development of the situation, said Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and an expert at the Valdai Club.

"Those very stingy official but rhetorically vivid statements that the parties make about the course of the negotiations do not provide exhaustive information on which parameters and areas of the negotiation process the parties have reached a compromise beyond the issue of uranium enrichment that has been brought to the fore," the expert says.

Photo: TASS/VAHID SALEMI

And these statements are very contradictory. Donald Trump claimed that Iran had agreed to transfer all enriched uranium to the United States, which, predictably, was denied in Tehran. At the same time, Turkish Habertürk writes that about 440-450 kg may be sent to a third country, including Turkey or Pakistan.

"Iran is not ready to give up its enriched uranium at the moment," Leonid Tsukanov believes. — And positions its preservation under its control as one of the "red lines", including in matters of containing Israel. Therefore, the probability that Tehran will cede its reserves in the near future is quite low.

The reason for the breakdown of the negotiation process at any moment could be Israel and its line of confrontation with the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. Since April 17, a 10-day truce has been in effect between Israel and Lebanon, where the Shiite movement is based. However, the expert community is confident that it will only be a temporary pause in a protracted conflict, as it does not resolve key contradictions, primarily around the role of Hezbollah and demands for its disarmament. The political wing of the movement has already stated that there will be no return to the situation before March 2, that is, when the escalation began, and "the finger of resistance will remain on the trigger."

Photo: REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki

The threat from another pro-Iranian organization has not gone away either. The Yemeni Houthis are again promising to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if Trump continues to obstruct peace. And the blockade of two key straits in the Middle East will require completely different solutions and will definitely lead to an even greater escalation.