The economist explained the fluctuations of the ruble against the background of statements by the Ministry of Finance

The weakening of the ruble is due to expectations of a possible return of the Ministry of Finance to foreign exchange transactions within the framework of the budget rule. Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia on April 17.

"The statement on an early return to the budget rule means that the Ministry of Finance may enter the market with purchases of foreign currency. The suspension of such operations until July 1 previously supported the ruble exchange rate, reducing pressure on it. However, expectations of a resumption of purchases of foreign currency amid high oil prices caused a market reaction. As a result, the official dollar exchange rate rose, but later the ruble partially recovered its losses, as no final decision has been made yet," the expert noted.

Astafyev stressed that for businesses, the weakening of the ruble means higher costs, especially for companies that depend on imports of equipment and raw materials. At the same time, the current dynamics may affect inflation, which previously showed a slowdown.

He explained that devaluation can offset the decline in inflation rates and complicate the task of the Central Bank, which has to balance between rate cuts and the risks of accelerating price growth.

According to the expert, the further dynamics of the ruble will depend on several factors. Among them are the parameters of the budget rule, the situation on the oil market and the geopolitical situation, as well as the receipt of export earnings during the tax payment period.

Astafyev believes that in the coming weeks the exchange rate may be in the range of 75-80 rubles per dollar. At the same time, by the end of the year, a further weakening of the national currency is possible in the event of an active return of the Ministry of Finance to foreign exchange purchases.

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On April 16, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in a written address to the International Monetary and Financial Committee that the situation in the global economy continues to deteriorate, and the weakening of budget discipline has deprived a number of states of the opportunity to respond effectively to new challenges. Against the background of rising risks, he also predicted the transformation of the international monetary system.