The political scientist assessed the risks of escalation of the conflict between Israel and Lebanon

The shelling of Israeli cities after the announcement of the truce reflects a typical situation in the Middle East, in which political agreements are at odds with the real situation on the ground. This was stated on April 17 by political analyst Dmitry Brije to Izvestia.

"We are witnessing a gap between the agreements on paper and what is happening in reality. Similar situations regularly arise in the region and are related to the peculiarities of conflicts, where even after official statements of a cease—fire, certain hotbeds of tension remain," the expert noted.

Brydje stressed that at the moment it is premature to talk about a complete breakdown of the truce. Rather, we are talking about partial violations of the ceasefire regime, which are typical for the first stages of its implementation. The expert explained that one of the reasons for the ongoing attacks is the fragmentation of the parties to the conflict. In particular, various armed groups operate in Lebanon, which are not always fully under the control of a single center, which makes it difficult to quickly implement agreements.

There is no conclusion: the truce between Israel and Lebanon can quickly collapse

Hezbollah does not intend to disarm as long as Israeli troops continue to occupy the territory of the republic.

An additional factor is the influence of external players, as well as the tactical goals of the parties, including a show of force and attempts to improve positions before the possible fixation of the terms of the truce. According to the political scientist, the strikes may be inertial in nature and be a consequence of the hostilities that have already begun, when the teams on the ground are not synchronized with political decisions.

He also outlined several possible scenarios for the development of the situation. The most likely scenario is a controlled de-escalation with the mediation of the United States, when individual incidents will be localized. The second scenario involves a limited escalation with pinpoint strikes and a subsequent return to a truce. The expert called a complete breakdown of the agreements and the expansion of the conflict less likely, since international mediators are interested in stabilizing the situation.

The national Israeli radio Galei IDF reported on the same day that the truce between Israel and Lebanon for a period of 10 days had entered into force. Prior to that, the parties, with the mediation of the United States, agreed that a truce between Israel and Lebanon would come at 0:00 Moscow time on April 17.

The Lebanese Army's press service also stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) violated the ceasefire. The agency also noted that the situation is monitored around the clock on the territory of the state.