Control shot: how the Houthis can bring down the global economy
A double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, first by Iran and then by the United States, may not be enough. If the confrontation between the participants in the largest Middle East conflict spreads to the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the severity of the current energy crisis may increase significantly. CNN, in its analysis, admitted that the Yemeni Houthis may try to block these hydrocarbon transportation routes and not only. In this case, a second global recession in the last six years is almost inevitable. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The second front
Its representatives stated about two weeks ago that the Ansar Allah movement could block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Red and Arabian Seas. The threats have not yet been translated into reality. At the same time, the technical ability to do something similar remains. Although the Houthis are not so well armed, they will not need to carry out precise attacks every time — it is enough to launch regular strikes with varying degrees of success so that the number of people willing to cross the Red Sea drops to almost zero.
To assess the possible consequences of such an action, it is necessary to refer to the physical volume of transit. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is one of the key logistics hubs of the planet. In the standard mode, about 8.8 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass through it daily, which accounts for about 10-12% of the total maritime trade in liquid hydrocarbons.
About 8% of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the strait. In addition, this route serves up to 15% of global commercial shipping, providing a transport corridor between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal.
The importance of the Red Sea has increased many times in 2026. Saudi Arabia has historically used ports on the west coast (such as the Yanbu terminals) connected by pipelines to the eastern fields as insurance against disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. If the Houthis block shipping in Bab al-Mandeb, this backup export artery completely loses its meaning. Oil delivered to the Red Sea will be trapped, losing safe access to consumers in Asia.
The Red Sea area also serves as the main route for Russian oil supplies to India and China. Any fighting in this sector will hit the transportation of discounted raw materials, which has so far helped Asian economies balance costs.
Diplomatic risk
At the same time, the United States is trying to exert maximum pressure on Iranian exports. Washington's strategy is aimed at intercepting the tankers of the "shadow fleet" carrying Iranian oil. The main buyer of this raw material is China, which purchases it for its independent refineries.
Forceful interception of vessels associated with Chinese capital will inevitably provoke a tough diplomatic conflict between Washington and Beijing. The escalation between the United States and China will lead to an expansion of mutual trade restrictions, which will hit global supply chains much harder than local problems in the Middle East.
In general, the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait will put shippers in front of the need to send ships bypassing the African continent, through the Cape of Good Hope. This logistical maneuver increases the flight time from Asia to Europe by 10-15 days.
The lengthening of routes has a specific financial expression. Transport companies need more ships to maintain the same volume of supplies, which artificially removes up to 20% of the free tonnage from circulation. Freight rates are rising, and bunker fuel and insurance costs are increasing. Importers shift the increased costs to the end user, which triggers a new round of cost inflation. All this makes a global recession scenario extremely likely. For an economy to enter a full-fledged recession, a combination of factors is required that destroy the usual growth mechanisms. The current state of affairs provides just such a combination.
Recession is on the verge
First, global industry is already experiencing energy shortages due to infrastructure damage in the Persian Gulf. Blocking the Red Sea will exacerbate this shortage, making remaining supplies more expensive and slower.
Secondly, logistical delays will lead to disruptions in the supply of components and consumer goods. European and American enterprises will face disruptions on assembly lines.
Third, central banks will be deprived of the opportunity to stimulate the economy. Inflation fueled by logistical and energy shocks will force the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to keep interest rates high. Expensive loans will continue to put pressure on the corporate sector, reducing investment activity.
The combination of stagnating production, high prices, and tight monetary policy forms a typical stagflation (or even "weakflation" — a combination of economic recession and inflation). At a time when global markets are deprived of reserve capacity in both oil production and shipping, the vulnerability of the system is reaching a critical point. Additional geopolitical tension between the United States and China due to the interceptions of oil tankers can become the final argument that will turn the slowdown in the global economy into a full-fledged recession, and even deeper than in 2020.
Even if some of the supplies continue, the next few months will see the largest burnout of industrial and strategic oil reserves in recent history. Restoring supplies will take some time. There will be a negative effect on the global economy in any case, but now it will be stretched over time.
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