How Zenit and Dynamo Makhachkala will play in the RPL: analysis, drawing of the game on April 19

The match between Dynamo Makhachkala and Zenit St. Petersburg seems clear at first glance. The second place in the RPL is against the team from the bottom of the table. But if you look at the form of the opponents and the details of their recent games, it becomes clear that the guests will not have an easy walk. The drawing of the game, the Zenit problem and the forecast are in the Izvestia material.

Why Dynamo is inconvenient

Under Vadim Yevseyev, Makhachkala residents ceased to be a team that the grandees dismantle effortlessly. They are an organized, disciplined and very prickly team. It is enough to recall the spring draws with Baltika and Lokomotiv. Dynamo knows how to endure, hold a punch and wait for their chance in a counterattack.

You don't have to wait for open football from the hosts. Dynamo will build the classic two lines of defense in front of their penalty area and close all the free zones in the center. There will be a minimum of space for quick combinations of Wendell and Barrios. Zenit will certainly get the ball under control (about 70% of the time), but the main question of the meeting is whether he will be able to turn this possession into really dangerous moments.

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Favorite's Problems

That's where the intrigue lies. After the winter break, the Petersburgers lost their ease of attack. The match in Orenburg was a real wake-up call: two missed penalties, a lack of ideas in a positional attack and a sensational defeat. And in the winning game against Krasnodar, the team created very little ahead (xG is only 0.44) and defended more after Pedro was eliminated.

The Brazilian's disqualification is a loss for Sergey Semak. It is Pedro who, with his unconventional actions, often reveals the massive defense of outsiders. His absence and the unstable form of Mantuan and Mostovoi make Zenit's attack more predictable and difficult.

Drawing of the game

The match will be like a fortress siege. Dynamo Makhachkala will build a 5-3-2 defense, narrow the space as much as possible and use the tactics of minor foul to slow down the pace of the guests. Zenit will have to serve a lot from the flanks based on Sobolev, but Dynamo's defenders are well prepared for such a head game.

Most likely, the goal of the guests will be born either after the standard position, or due to the individual skill of Zenit players in someone else's penalty area. It's definitely not worth waiting for a hail of moments and a big score.

The statistics of face-to-face meetings confirm this trend. Out of the last five games, there was only one defeat (4-0). In other cases, everything was decided by one, maximum two balls.: 2:1, 1:0, 2:0 and again 1-0. The recent cup match is especially significant, where Zenit managed a minimal victory with great difficulty.

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Result

Zenit has a huge difference in class and experience, and the tournament situation does not allow them to lose points in the race against Krasnodar. These trump cards should work. The guests must put the squeeze on the opponent in order to maintain their championship ambitions.

However, the current state of Zenit's attack and Dynamo's defensive discipline will not allow the fans to relax until the final whistle. The game will turn out to be viscous, nervous and with a minimum of bright attacks. The hosts will fight, but the class of the guests is likely to be enough for one accurate strike.

The most logical outcome in this scenario is a hard—fought, hard-fought victory for Zenit with a score of 0:1. The Dagestani team will leave the field without points, but with their heads held high, and the St. Petersburg team will put the most important, albeit creaky, three points in the piggy bank.