Experts estimated the revenue to the budget of the Russian Federation from the introduction of VAT on cross-border trade

The proposal of the Ministry of Industry and Trade to introduce a full VAT rate on cross-border trade on marketplaces from 2027 may bring more than 100 billion rubles of additional revenue to the Russian budget, according to economists interviewed by Izvestia.

"According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance, up to 99% of cross-border purchases today take place without paying taxes and duties. This gives a significant advantage to foreign sellers and reduces the competitiveness of Russian importers who pay taxes in full," said Mikhail Khachaturian, associate professor at the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

He noted that this measure will support Russian importers by equalizing the conditions of competition with foreign sites.

"The potential additional revenue of the Russian budget, when the tax burden is equalized, may amount to more than 100 billion rubles — this amount is comparable to the annual budget of regions such as the Kursk Region, Chuvashia or the Bryansk region. The introduction of VAT on this part of import flows will provide additional support to the economy by reducing the budget deficit. This has more advantages than disadvantages," Khachaturian said.

According to Data Insight, sales of cross-border goods in 2025 exceeded 400 billion rubles, while the turnover of this segment is growing almost three times faster than the online market. Against the background of a rapid increase in supplies from abroad without paying taxes, the budget is losing significant funds, the economist added.

Dmitry Zavyalov, Head of the Department of Entrepreneurship and Logistics at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, believes that there will be no noticeable increase in commodity prices. According to him, most goods in the Russian Federation are already sold with full payment of taxes, and cross-border trade occupies about 5% of the online market and is not able to have a strong impact on the overall price level. Increased competition will not allow the tax burden to be shifted to the consumer in full, therefore, the impact on prices will be limited.

"We are talking about whitewashing a part of the market, rather than raising the price of imports as a whole," Zavyalov said.

The positive effect for the economy is associated with increased market transparency. As noted by Mikhail Perelman, Associate Professor of the Department of Management of the Russian Academy of Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, cross—border sales have actually become a tax loophole - some goods are imported under the guise of private parcels without paying duties and VAT. According to him, the introduction of the tax will reduce such schemes, since during official deliveries, goods are accompanied by certificates and necessary documents, which reduces the risks of buying low-quality products and simplifies the protection of buyers' rights.

Perelman added that the entire international practice of e-commerce is moving towards equalizing the tax burden for imports. According to the OECD, VAT benefits for imported parcels distort competition and lead to budget losses.

"In world practice, such a privilege is being eliminated: in 2024, 27 countries have already extended general VAT regimes to all imports, based on the principle of equal taxation with domestic goods," the expert noted.

Collect over: the budget received almost 3 trillion after the increase in income tax to 25%

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Alexey Sazanov, State Secretary and Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, said on March 19 that the Russian Ministry of Finance supports the phased introduction of VAT on e-commerce goods. According to him, the ministry proposes to introduce the tax gradually. In particular, in 2027, the rate may reach 7%, then rise to 14%, and later to a total level of 22%.

Sazanov clarified that the relevant amendments have already been prepared, and e-commerce products are allocated to a separate category in the customs legislation. At the same time, countries are given the right to independently set domestic taxes on such products.

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