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Find the fairway: how the way across the Caspian Sea will save Iran from the food crisis
Russia and Iran have agreed to continue cooperation — the countries intend to reach a trade turnover of $ 30 billion. Under the conditions of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, supplies can be completely redirected to the Caspian Sea, through which the North–South international transport corridor passes. Reorientation to this route will change the delivery time and cost. Whether Russia can become a critically important supplier for Iran, taking into account the risks of food shortages in the country, is in the Izvestia article.
Both by land and by sea
Russia and Iran intend to develop cooperation, the countries plan to reach a trade turnover of $ 30 billion. This was stated by the Governor of Tehran Province, Mohammad Sadegh Motamedian, following a meeting with Russian Ambassador Alexei Dedov.
He did not specify by which year it is planned to achieve such an indicator. However, as Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev noted earlier, in the first 11 months of 2025, the trade turnover between Russia and Iran amounted to $4.8 billion.
Strengthening cooperation in the current geopolitical situation will not be so easy. The war between the United States and Israel with Iran significantly changes the rules of the game. In particular, the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz imposed on April 13 not only affects logistics, but also puts Iran at risk of a food crisis.
Under these conditions, the route passing through the Caspian Sea becomes safe for mutual trade between Russia and Iran. We are talking about the North–South International Transport Corridor (MTK). This is a combined 7,200 km route using sea transportation and rail links, which allows for export-import transportation from Russia to Iran with further transit to India, the Persian Gulf and South Asia.
The MTK assumes three transportation options: along the western and eastern coasts of the Caspian Sea, as well as the trans-Caspian (through the Russian ports of Astrakhan, Olya, Makhachkala and the Iranian ports of Caspian, Noushehr and Amirabad).
The main difficulty in fully reorienting supplies to this corridor lies in the fact that the key missing railway link on the western branch between Rasht and Astara in Iran has not yet been put into operation, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Preparations are currently underway to begin construction work on this site, but the timing may shift due to the military confrontation between the Islamic Republic and the United States.
At the same time, issues related to the modernization of railway infrastructure, the development of road bypasses and the improvement of ports are being addressed in other participating countries. It is premature to talk about the completion of the entire system.
A legitimate benefit
Even in the current format of the North–South corridor, the transportation of goods along it has its advantages. The main one is to reduce the delivery time. This, in particular, was pointed out by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) back in 2021. Compared to the traditional route through the Suez Canal, the time is reduced by almost half. It was noted that the cargo from Mumbai to St. Petersburg, passing through Suez, is delivered from 30 to 45 days. Transportation along the North–South MTK overland route takes from 15 to 24 days. The delivery time of containers from Moscow to the port of Bandar Abbas (Iran) along this corridor, according to Russian Railways Logistics, starts from 14 days.
However, the EDB report clarified that the cost of transporting goods along this corridor is not its clear competitive advantage. Mikhail Khachaturian, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, admitted the possibility that transportation via the North–South MTK will be cheaper than shipments via Suez when reorienting exports to Iran. Shorter distances reduce fuel costs by almost half, fewer intermediate ports and simplified customs procedures reduce associated costs, and multimodal transportation (by land and by sea) optimizes logistics.
Murad Sadigzade, President of the Center for Middle East Studies and a visiting lecturer at the Faculty of World Economics and World Politics at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, confirmed that shorter transport shoulder and shorter travel time can reduce overall logistical costs. However, the incompleteness of individual sections, the need for transshipment, the limited fleet in the Caspian Sea and the uneven loading of infrastructure may increase the price at certain stages, he warned. Therefore, savings in transportation along this corridor will be more strategic due to sustainability, predictability and reduction of geopolitical risks.
Big problems
One of the key difficulties in building a new logistics chain is related to the readiness of the infrastructure to increase cargo turnover. Back in 2021, the EDB claimed that the combined potential of container transportation in all major directions of the North–South Transport Corridor could amount to 325-662 thousand tons. TEU (twenty—foot equivalent is a conventional unit of measurement for the capacity of cargo vehicles) by 2030, depending on the scenario.
Ports remain the main problem point. The issue of their readiness to multiply the flow, according to Murad Sadigzade, cannot be reduced only to the number of berths or to the formal capacity.
"In reality, it is determined by the condition of the channels, the depths, the possibilities of transshipment of different types of cargo, the speed of ship handling, the availability of warehouses, railway and automobile approaches, as well as the quality of management of the entire chain," the expert explained.
The potential for the development of the trans-Caspian corridor is currently inferior to overland routes. The water transport infrastructure is characterized by the presence of bottlenecks, such as the dimensions of the Volga-Caspian Sea Shipping Channel.
The development of the trans-Caspian route is a strategic task for Russia today. This was announced on April 15 by Nikolai Patrushev, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation, Chairman of the Maritime Board. He spoke about the modernization of the Russian ports of Astrakhan, Olya and Makhachkala, which are being carried out for this purpose. A universal terminal complex is being created in the port of Astrakhan for transshipment of grain and oilseed crops, as well as bulk cargo. In addition, the Russian-Iranian terminal is currently being upgraded. In turn, a project is being implemented in the port of Olya, providing for the construction of a terminal for transshipment of 20- and 40-foot containers, general cargo of indoor and outdoor storage.
Carrying out such work has allowed to increase cargo turnover in ports. In the port of Makhachkala, by the end of 2025, it amounted to 3.5 million tons. In the port of Olya in 2024, cargo turnover reached 1 million tons, which turned out to be 75% more than a year earlier.
The implementation of planned projects for the reconstruction and construction of new facilities can significantly increase the capacity of ports, Mikhail Khachaturian admitted in a conversation with Izvestia. However, it requires not only significant investments, but also time.
In addition, one of the most serious difficulties for the development of the corridor is the shortage of merchant vessels in the Caspian Sea. Namely, the fleet determines how fast and stable transportation can be increased.
Nikolai Patrushev also confirmed the need for the construction of new ships, speaking about the prospects for the development of the North–South transport corridor. He called the creation of a fleet to transport cargo bases one of the measures that could contribute to the growth of the potential of the trans-Caspian route. In the coming years, according to the president of the Maritime Board, it is planned to build more than 2.5 thousand civilian vessels in Russia, as well as modernize the existing fleet.
According to Sadigzade, a combination of measures can solve the problem with the production of ships. First of all, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of dry cargo ships, container ships and specialized vessels at Russian shipyards, as well as to develop joint projects with the Iranian side.
— Secondly, financial incentives are needed for shipowners, including subsidizing leasing, lending and freight, so that work in the Caspian Sea becomes more economically attractive, — said the interlocutor of Izvestia.
Reliable partner
The transit of goods through the North–South Transport Corridor continues, despite external factors. Container shipments to Iran increased by 60% last year, Dmitry Zverev, State Secretary and Deputy Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation, reported in early April.
With a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Russia may become one of the most important external suppliers for Iran, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. The republic may face not only an increase in the cost of foreign trade, but also the risk of disrupting sustainable supply chains for food, raw materials and certain types of industrial products, Murad Sadigzade admitted. Due to its geography, existing trade relations and access to the Caspian Sea, Russia finds itself in a more advantageous position than many other partners of Iran, he noted.
The Russian Federation is already a significant supplier of food products to the Islamic Republic. According to Rusagrotrans, from July 2025 to February 2026, Iran imported almost 6 million tons of grain from Russia, twice as much as the year before.
Mikhail Khachaturian attributed the increase in supplies of wheat, corn, barley and other grain crops, as well as sunflower, soybean and rapeseed oils, to the main export opportunities of the Russian Federation. In addition, Russia can export to Iran mineral fertilizers for agriculture, steel, non-ferrous metals, paper, pulp, as well as machinery and components necessary for the modernization of industrial facilities.
Astrakhan Seaport workers are engaged in oil pumping
However, Russia's ability to meet Iran's needs should not be overestimated, because it is high in some categories of goods and limited in others, Sadigzade warned.
— The restrictions are related to logistics, the range of goods, and the fact that Iran needs not only basic raw materials and food resources, but also a wide range of high-tech products, equipment, components, and specialized materials. Therefore, Russia can become a very important support for Iran during the crisis, but not the only source of covering all the needs of the economy," the expert stressed.
Achieve parity
There are also certain difficulties that may hinder the growth of trade turnover between Russia and Iran. Both countries are now facing sanctions restrictions that can complicate financial transactions and logistics, Mikhail Khachaturian drew attention.
And the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by itself does not mean that Iran is guaranteed to turn to the North–South CTC. Tehran may start looking for alternative sources of supplies via land routes or other sea routes, the economist did not rule out.
Iran's main trading partners are China, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey (trade in 2024 amounted to $17.8 billion, $16.11 billion and $8.8 billion, respectively). The latter often act as hubs for goods from third countries. Turkey has a land border with Iran, which allows for deliveries by road and rail. In early December 2025, Tehran and Ankara agreed to jointly implement a project to build the Merend—Cheshmeh-Soria railway in Iran, the appearance of which will contribute to the formation of a new transit corridor. It has been developing railway links with Iran and China for several years. Last May, the first regular freight train arrived from the Chinese province of Xi'an to the largest Iranian dry port of Aprin. This railway route allows you to reduce the delivery time to 15 days.
However, problems are not excluded, even if Iran begins to compensate for the shortage of food with purchases from the Russian Federation. In this scenario, the trade imbalance between the countries may increase, Murad Sadigzade warned. Already, Russian supplies significantly exceed Iranian imports. In times of crisis, when Iran will need more food, raw materials and supplies, this gap may become even larger.
— Such an imbalance is dangerous not only in a statistical sense. It puts a strain on settlement mechanisms, increases the dependence of trade on political agreements and can lead to a situation where it is technically possible to expand turnover, but financially and institutionally difficult, the expert warned.
If Iran is unable to increase exports to Russia at a comparable pace, then relations will increasingly shift towards one-sided dependence.
"To reduce these risks, the parties need to develop not only exports from Russia, but also counter shipments from Iran, joint projects, settlements in national currencies, clearing schemes and more complex forms of industrial cooperation,— concluded the Izvestia interlocutor.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
