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How China is coping with the crisis amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. What the media is writing

Bloomberg: China has created the world's largest emergency oil reserve
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The US decision to restrict the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the foreign press, may cost the United States dearly. Despite the fact that one of the goals of the blockade is obviously to put pressure on China, the main consumer of Iranian crude oil, this country is well prepared for possible energy crises, and the United States does not have such a safety margin. What the foreign press writes about it is in the Izvestia digest

CNN: Prolonged blockade will negatively affect the Chinese economy

China, which is the largest importer of energy resources, has survived the global energy crisis better than other Asian countries. But with the shaky truce between the US and Iran and the US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threatening energy exports, the stakes are rising for China. Although the blockade is unlikely to lead to an immediate shortage, as China is well prepared for the energy crisis, the risks for the country are growing: the financial regulator has repeatedly attempted to mitigate the effects of global rising gasoline and diesel prices on the national economy.

CNN

According to official economic data released last week, the cost of transport fuel increased by 10% in March compared with the previous month. Prices for products from Chinese factories also showed positive dynamics last month for the first time in more than three years. These changes will put an end to a long deflationary cycle that has been causing a lot of trouble for economists.

China is well aware that the longer the Gulf War holds back global economic growth, the greater the impact on the Chinese economy, which depends on exports in the face of declining domestic demand. In its diplomatic rhetoric, China is balancing support for Iran and respect for the security of the Gulf states attacked by Tehran, which are also trading partners of Beijing. China may be interested in the United States being involved in the affairs of another region instead of competing with Beijing, but does not want to complicate relations between the countries ahead of Trump's visit to China next month.

Reuters: China will experience the effect of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in April

Supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz did not affect oil imports to China, as tankers arriving from the Middle East were shipped in January and February. Stocks of raw materials grew as refineries reduced their workload — according to the Chinese consulting company Oilchem, in March, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese refineries was 68.79%, which is 0.9% less than a year earlier and 4.47% less than in February.

Reuters

According to Ye Lin, vice president of Rystad Energy, China is likely to face a reduction in oil supply in April: imports are expected to be about 2 million barrels per day below the average level of import demand. To maintain an adequate supply of petroleum products, China will probably need to use reserves, even despite the expected decrease in refining volumes by about 1 million barrels per day in April amid low profitability, Ye added.

In March, China imposed a ban on the export of petroleum products. The export restrictions, which did not affect aviation fuel for refueling ships, may last until April. The ban led to an increase in stocks and an oversupply of gasoline and diesel fuel in the domestic market, as its consumption in China remained relatively low.

Bloomberg: the blockade will not give the result that the United States expects

There would not have been a black market for Iranian oil without China — before the outbreak of the war, Beijing bought 95% of oil from Tehran through a network of tankers under sanctions. Therefore, the blockade of the strait by the United States is aimed not only at Iran, but also at China. Beijing has already lost a fifth of its oil imports due to the crisis in the Persian Gulf countries and risks facing even greater shortages. China will have to tap into its largest strategic crude oil reserves in the world — something Beijing has avoided so far.

Bloomberg

Washington probably hopes that Beijing will convince Iran to soften its demands at the negotiating table, as it has done before: in 2023, it brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. But most of Beijing's leverage over Tehran was based on the money it paid for oil, and that influence would cease if the blockade stopped exports.

Instead of trying to achieve a ceasefire, the Chinese Communist Party can take a wait-and-see attitude, relying on its reserves. Given the volume of accumulated oil, Beijing will be able to do without Iranian supplies for several weeks: even a two-month blockade will reduce Chinese reserves of crude oil by only about 10%. The oil math doesn't work out in favor of the White House: Iran may remain defiant — and China indifferent — for longer than Trump can remain solvent.

Bloomberg: Asian countries are scared by the blockade of the strait by the United States

The Rich Starry tanker, which is under sanctions and linked to China, has made its second attempt to exit the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours. It is not yet known whether the ship has entered Iranian ports. The tanker resumed its exit to inform that the owner of the vessel is China, and the crew consists of Chinese citizens. This is a security mechanism often used by ships, but now it has become a test of the United States' resolve to stand up to the ships of the world's largest oil importer.

Bloomberg

The global shipping and energy trading community has been on edge ever since Trump announced the naval blockade of Iran, which is scheduled to begin on Monday at 10 a.m. New York time, forcing them to try to figure out the details of the agreement. The majority of those surveyed by Bloomberg in the Middle East and Asia said they would suspend their actions until the details of the US blockade, designed to limit Iran's ability to sell its oil, become clear.

Since the introduction of the blockade, not a single vessel with transponders turned on has been seen entering the Persian Gulf. Trump's threats have caused alarm in Asian countries that depend on energy supplies from the Middle East. In an official statement released on April 13, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on interested parties to seek peace talks between Tehran and Washington.

CGTN: The United States will not be able to ensure a stable blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

After negotiations between Washington and Tehran reached an impasse, the United States took drastic measures by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the most important transportation artery for global energy markets. Restrictions on the movement of ships began on April 13. At a press conference, Trump warned that the US military would "eliminate" any Iranian vessel that approached the US blockade zone in the Strait of Hormuz.

CGTN

According to Abdulaziz Alshaabani, a Saudi researcher at the Riyadh Center for Political and Strategic Studies, the United States is likely to rely on strengthening its naval presence, strengthening monitoring and inspection operations, and possibly imposing "selective restrictions" on the movement of certain vessels. "However, it is unlikely that a naval blockade will be complete or absolutely effective, given the complexity of the sea lanes and the intertwining of international interests," Alshaabani added.

Even if the blockade is not long-term, it will cause additional turmoil in global markets and directly hit Europe and Asia, as well as undermine the fragile truce between the United States, Israel and Iran. After the announcement of the blockade of the strait by the United States, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps promised to use new military capabilities if the war with the United States and Israel continues.

Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»

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