The expert estimated the risks of bitcoin's decline below $70 thousand.

The key support for bitcoin remains the range of $69-70.5 thousand. Its breakdown may open the way to a decline to $66.4 thousand, where the positions of investors with a high level of risk are concentrated. At the same time, recovery is possible if there are signs of a resumption of the negotiation process on Iran — then the price may return to the levels of $ 77-78 thousand. Alexander Baryshnikov, the manager of the Mining fund at Record Capital Management Company, told Izvestia on April 13.

"Bitcoin closed the week at about $70.7 thousand, adding 2.47%, but several attempts to gain a foothold above the range of $72.8–73 thousand were unsuccessful. Pressure on the market increased after the breakdown of negotiations in Islamabad, which lowered expectations of de—escalation," the expert explained.

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He noted that the geopolitical situation remains a key factor for the crypto market in the coming days. Additional pressure is exerted by inflation statistics: the consumer price index in the United States showed an increase of 0.9% in monthly terms, the highest level since 2022. It is expected that the publication of producer price data may reinforce these trends.

In such conditions, the risks of maintaining the Fed's tight policy are increasing, which may lead to a strengthening of the dollar and a decrease in interest in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Baryshnikov added that the institutional demand for cryptocurrency remains, as evidenced by the influx of funds into ETFs in the amount of more than $679 million per week. However, the fear and greed index remains in the zone of extreme fear, which indicates the continued instability of the market.

The expert stressed that without reducing geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic factors will play a secondary role, and the volatility of cryptocurrencies will remain high.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) newspaper reported on April 12 about the decline in American futures after the breakdown of negotiations on the settlement of the conflict between the United States and Iran in Islamabad. Earlier, oil prices rose sharply: U.S. crude futures gained 9.2% and reached $105 per barrel, while the price of Brent rose to about $102. At the same time, futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices declined by about 1%.

Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), announced on April 12 that oil prices could reach at least $150 per barrel as early as April 13. According to him, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the higher oil and gas prices will be, and the energy crisis in the European Union and the United Kingdom will worsen. The recovery period, in turn, will be prolonged.

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