The Danube is free: how the arrival of the opposition Tisa will change Hungary's policy

The coming to power of Tisa leader Peter Magyar in Hungary is capable of worsening the country's relations with Russia, according to the expert community. According to the preliminary results of the last elections, the party may win two-thirds of the seats in parliament, which will provide it with a constitutional majority. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already admitted defeat: Fidesz's 16-year rule is coming to an end. The Izvestia report describes how Hungary's relations with the EU, the United States and Ukraine may change, as well as the attitude of Hungarian society towards the outgoing prime minister.

Election results in Hungary

On April 12, parliamentary elections ended in Hungary, which attracted the attention of most of the world's leading media. The historically high turnout (77% of citizens voted), accusations of ties to Moscow, and posters with Zelensky will be remembered for perhaps the most intense election campaign in the country over the past 16 years.

After processing more than 87% of the ballots, the opposition Tisa party wins. According to the Central Election Commission (CEC), the party claims 138 of the 199 seats in parliament, gaining an absolute majority. The ruling bloc, which includes Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (CDNP), gets only 54 seats. The right-wing Nasha Rodina is also running for parliament, which, according to the country's Central Election Commission, will receive seven mandates. The left-wing "Democratic Coalition" and the satirical "Two-Tailed Dog Party" won less than 5% of the vote and are not eligible for the legislature.

On April 12, thousands of citizens gathered in the center of Budapest to watch the vote count: supporters of Viktor Orban on the left bank of the Danube, and those who supported the opposition party of Peter Magyar on the right. When the picture became almost clear, Orban congratulated his opponent on his victory, noting that although the counting continues, the result is clear. Magyar responded briefly on social media: "Thank you, Hungary!".

The election result was quite expected, Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

— Many Hungarians have accumulated fatigue from Orban. They understood that Hungary was too dependent on the European Union to deepen the quarrel with it. Orban also put foreign policy ahead of domestic policy, and European voters generally don't like this anywhere. Especially in a provincial country like Hungary," the expert noted.

More than 130 mandates will ensure a constitutional majority for Tisa and Peter Magyar. The election of a new Hungarian prime minister will take place within 30 days, President Tamas Szujok said, speaking at the headquarters of the National Electoral Bureau. Tisa is likely to change the system of parliament formation: Orban has introduced a majority of seats in single-mandate constituencies, while Magyar will return voting only on party lists, Trukhachev believes.

— For sure, Hungary will face corruption trials against officials from Fidesz. For a while, attention will be paid to prices, roads, schools and hospitals, and it may get better in the short term. However, the Magyar cannot ensure Hungary's breakthrough to the standard of living of at least the Czech Republic and Slovenia, the analyst is sure.

Public split before the vote

A few days before the vote, pro—government polls predicted a victory for the ruling bloc, while opposition polls predicted a victory for Tisa. It seemed that the society was divided in half into supporters and opponents of the current authorities. On Sunday morning, April 12, Viktor Orban called for unity in the face of impending energy and financial crises.

"We have mobilized the whole country," the politician said.

Orban cast his vote in Budapest, where he is treated most oppositionally. But even in the capital, opinions about the prime minister and his party differed greatly.

— I support Viktor Orban, I like him. He is a strong leader, a friend of the presidents of Russia, the United States, Turkey, and the head of China. Russia is our economic partner. We buy oil and gas from her the most, and Russian tourists are the best and most polite," said Joseph, a resident of the city.

One of the reasons why he is voting for Fidesz is Orban's refusal to provide military assistance to Kiev and attempts to mediate a settlement of the crisis. It is enough to recall the "peace mission", when in the summer of 2024, the Hungarian Prime Minister went to four countries at once - Russia, Ukraine, the United States and China.

— I just really want the conflict in Ukraine to end. All sane Hungary wants this. And, God forbid, Peter Magyar will become Prime minister," said Joseph.

Another Budapest resident, Peter, reasoned differently. For him, voting in the parliamentary elections was largely a protest.

"I don't like Orban. Anyone but him. He's completely taken over the country, and that's a problem," says Peter. — More than half a million young Hungarians have left in the last 16 years. This is a big disaster. They left because there are no proper hospitals or education here. Budapest is one thing, but the regions are another matter. If you go to the countryside, you will find yourself in the Middle Ages. And we are no longer in Europe, we are trapped in a vacuum. The EU has frozen billions of euros for Hungary.

Many believe that the elections may be followed by rallies, both from supporters of Orban and Magyar. The society turned out to be warmed up by a media campaign that had never been seen before, says Boris Kalnoki, head of the media school at the Matthias Korvin College (MCC).

— This is the first campaign in the TikTok era. It is conducted on the Internet in an impressive way. And this is the first campaign where artificial intelligence was used even to influence micro—target groups of voters," the expert told Izvestia. — Fidesz has perfected the art of conducting traditional election campaigns, that is, using large-scale media, communicating with voters, and so on. They did this while trying to master the Internet. But Magyar's supporters are younger, and they have Internet usage in their DNA. They grew up there, they are digital natives.

How Budapest's foreign policy will change

Europe expectedly welcomed the victory of Tisa, which advocated the normalization of dialogue with the EU leadership. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz congratulated Magyar and expressed hope for cooperation "for the sake of a strong, secure and united Europe." Vadim Trukhachev believes that after the change of power, Hungary will receive money from EU funds: during the years of Orban's rule, the EU froze about €17 billion in financing for the country.

— Orban is the brightest and most experienced right—wing politician in Europe. His defeat means a weakening of the right-wing eurosceptics from the Patriots for Europe party. Among the heads of government, they have only Czech Prime Minister Andrei Babis. Their weight in the corridors of the EU is decreasing," Trukhachev believes.

The nature of relations with the United States may change. The White House supported Viktor Orban: five days before the vote, Vice President Jay D. Vance even came to Budapest.

— For Trump, Orban is primarily not the Hungarian prime minister, but the leader of the pan-European Patriots for Europe party. He is a like-minded person with conservative values and strict migration policy. And his departure will weaken the position of the current American administration in Europe, which was already not the strongest," Trukhachev explained.

As for relations with Russia, they will certainly worsen, the analyst believes. After the start of the SVR, Hungary was one of the European countries that maintained a political dialogue with the Russian Federation at the highest level.

— Hungary will stop blocking the adoption of anti-Russian sanctions. Russia will probably lose contracts for the completion of the Paksha nuclear power plant, for gas and oil supplies, or Hungary will switch to one—time purchases in case of a shortage of fuel from other sources," Vadim Trukhachev believes.

It is possible that Budapest under the Magyar may also change the nature of relations with Ukraine. Do not forget that in 2024, the leader of Tisa came to Kiev and even provided the Ukrainian regime with financial support collected by his party.