Decisive battle: will Viktor Orban remain in power after the elections
After 15 years in power, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban faced a real threat of electoral defeat for the first time. The head of the opposition Tisa party, Peter Magyar, is confidently leading in the polls. Against this background, Orban appealed to voters, warning them of the risk of "losing everything that we have built together." The upcoming vote may not only change the government in Hungary, but also determine whether the country will remain Russia's main ally and a critic of Brussels' course within the EU. The possible results of Sunday's elections and their significance can be found in the Izvestia article.
Districts, Diaspora and Budapest
Parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary on April 12. For the first time in many years, Viktor Orban may lose the race. His main competitor is the leader of the Tisa party, Peter Magyar. According to a survey by the 21 Research Centre, the opposition may receive 56% of the vote against 37% from the ruling Fidesz party.
However, leading in the polls does not guarantee the opposition victory at all. Hungary has a mixed electoral system: each voter receives two ballots, one for a party list and the other for a candidate in their district. Of the 199 seats in Parliament, 106 are allocated to single-mandate constituencies, and they often decide the outcome of elections.
Printing of ballots at the printing house on the eve of the parliamentary elections in Hungary
It is quite difficult to predict the result in them. Traditionally, large cities, primarily Budapest, vote for the opposition, while small towns and villages more often prefer Fidesz. This was the case in the 2022 elections: Orban's party won 86 of the 88 districts outside the capital, while the united opposition won 17 of the 18 seats in Budapest.
But before the current campaign, the rules of the game have changed. In 2024, the parliament redrawn the map of districts: in the capital, their number decreased to 16, and in the Pest region, where Fidesz feels most confident, on the contrary, it increased from 12 to 14. Formally, the reform was explained by demography. The opposition saw it as an attempt to weaken protest Budapest: the districts were "diluted" with territories more loyal to Orban.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban speaks at an election rally
There is also a second factor that can influence the outcome of the elections — foreign Hungarians. About 9.5 million people live in the country itself, and about 2 million ethnic Hungarians live in neighboring countries, primarily in Romania. They can vote by mail for party lists, and since 2010, the vast majority of these votes have gone to Fidesz. In the last election, the ruling party received almost 94% of the diaspora vote.
This is largely due to the fact that it was the Orban government that granted foreign Hungarians citizenship and the right to participate in elections. In addition, Budapest has been financing Hungarian schools and public organizations in neighboring countries for years: Transcarpathia alone, according to Ukrainian media, received about €115 million through the Bethlen Gabor state fund in 2011-2020. Therefore, a significant part of the diaspora perceives Orban as a politician who protects its interests, and votes for him.
Strategy and division
The main election theme is the economy. In 2023, Hungary faced record inflation for the EU: prices rose by almost 17% over the year. The authorities were able to partially bring the situation under control, but they failed to fully cope with the crisis. In 2025, inflation is still one of the highest in Central Europe, at about 4.3%, which is more than in the other Visegrad Four countries.
Orban explains the price increase by Brussels' policy and sanctions against Russia. He is convinced that economic growth is impossible without Russian energy resources. In his opinion, the country's economy can develop only if it pursues an independent policy, even if the EU does not like it. The prime minister promises to keep utility tariffs low, maintain fuel price limits, and continue social benefits.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the European Council summit in Brussels
Magyar, on the contrary, believes that Orban himself is the main cause of the problems. According to him, corruption and constant conflict with Brussels have led Hungary to lose billions of euros from EU funds. Therefore, Tisa promises to restore relations with the European Union, return the frozen money and use it to support the economy. At the same time, Magyar proposes to reduce taxes for the poor and increase the burden on the rich. We are talking about the owners of a fortune of over 1 billion forints (approximately $ 3 million).
As a result, the whole campaign turned into an argument about what Hungary itself should be like. Orban is pushing for a "sovereign" country that does not obey Brussels and maintains ties with Russia. Magyar, on the contrary, believes that it is time for Hungary to end its constant conflicts with the EU and try to restore relations with Europe.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and US Vice President Jay Dee Vance at a pre-election rally on the occasion of the American-Hungarian Friendship Day in Budapest. April 7, 2026
Against this background, the election campaign has ceased to be only an internal matter of the country. Vice President of the United States Jay D. Vance came to support Orban. He publicly spoke with the Hungarian Prime Minister and recalled his close relationship with Donald Trump.
"I really wanted to send a signal to everyone, especially the bureaucrats in Brussels, who did everything they could to keep the Hungarian people in line, because they don't like a leader who really stood up for the Hungarian people," said the special representative of the American president.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban before taking photos together at the European Council summit
In Brussels, on the contrary, they hope for the victory of the opposition. Orban has long been perceived there as the main "thorn" within the EU: it is Hungary that slows down sanctions against Russia, blocks aid to Ukraine and hinders negotiations on Kiev's accession to the European Union. Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron are particularly harshly criticizing Orban. Slovakia remains the closest to Budapest's position, while Italy and Austria remain the closest on certain issues.
What the experts say
Anyway, Orban's position remains quite stable, Natalia Eremina, Doctor of Political Sciences, professor at St. Petersburg State University, notes in a conversation with Izvestia. It is not for nothing that he has been in power for so long: all these years he has relied on the support of Hungarian citizens and put national interests above everything else.
"For Orban's supporters, the choice looks pretty simple: either Hungary will continue to pursue its own policy and defend its interests, or after the opposition wins, the country will be much more dependent on Brussels," the expert says.
Rally in support of Viktor Orban in Szekesfehervar
According to her, the arrival of J.D. Vance played into the hands of the prime minister. He strengthened Orban's position among supporters and allowed himself to be presented as an international politician. At the same time, both Brussels and Washington are actually participating in the Hungarian campaign, just supporting different candidates.
Despite Tisa's leadership in opinion polls, the outcome of the election remains unpredictable, said Nikolai Topornin, director of the Center for European Information. He estimates the chances of the two camps as 50-50, because the advantage of the opposition on party lists can be offset by the victory of Fidesz in single-mandate constituencies.
— The opposition focuses on the fact that Orban has been in power for too long. Corruption charges and economic problems are also playing against him. Moreover, it is already difficult to understand who is accusing whom of what: the government is attacking the opposition, the opposition is attacking Orban, stories about mayors, deputies and officials associated with different parties are surfacing. All this dirty laundry is constantly being taken outside, and people certainly don't like it," the Izvestia source notes.
An election campaign poster on a Budapest street
The country has actually split in half: Orban still has strong support, primarily in the provinces, but the demand for change is becoming stronger, especially among young people and residents of large cities, says Topornin.
— Whatever the outcome of the elections, Hungary will remain a divided country. The winner is likely to get a minimal majority — roughly 100 seats against 99. That's enough to form a government, but neither side will be able to speak on behalf of the whole of Hungary," he points out.
At the same time, Orban has become a kind of symbol of defiance for parts of Eastern Europe. He shows that it is possible to openly argue with Brussels, defend national interests and at the same time remain in power.
"Therefore, elections in such a small country as Hungary are already acquiring not only domestic, but also pan—European, and partly even global significance," the analyst concludes.
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