The economist estimated the probability of a key rate cut in April

The slowdown in inflation creates conditions for lowering the key rate, but the remaining risks limit the possibilities for rapid monetary policy easing. Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia about this on April 9.

According to him, at the beginning of 2026, annual inflation accelerated to 6.5% under the influence of temporary factors, including an increase in VAT and an increase in the cost of certain goods and services. At the same time, by February, monthly inflation had slowed to 0.2%, and the overall dynamics was gradually stabilizing. In the baseline scenario, the Bank of Russia expects the indicator to return to the target level of 4% by the end of the year.

"Tight monetary policy restrains demand and has a chilling effect on prices. An additional role may be played by an increase in the supply of goods and normalization of fiscal policy. However, the sustainability of these trends remains questionable," the expert said.

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He warned that lowering the rate too quickly could lead to an increase in demand that would outstrip supply. This will increase pressure on prices and may trigger a new round of inflation. In addition, policy easing can weaken the ruble and increase the cost of imported goods.

Among the key risks, Astafyev singled out an overheated labor market, rising wages, tariff indexation and external factors, including the geopolitical situation. Inflationary expectations of the population exert additional pressure. At the same time, a reduction in the rate may increase investors' interest in fixed coupon bonds, as they allow them to lock in yields for a long time. However, in the event of a change in the Central Bank's policy, fluctuations in prices for such securities are possible.

The economist did not rule out the opposite scenario — a return to policy tightening. According to him, this is possible with accelerated inflation or increased external and internal risks.

"The Bank of Russia will act flexibly, focusing on the actual dynamics of inflation and macroeconomic indicators," the expert concluded.

On March 20, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, also notified that, if necessary, the further trajectory of the key rate in the Russian Federation would be determined in April. She clarified that the impact on the trajectory of the key rate is a separate factor that cannot be decisive. That is why the Central Bank takes into account changes in various factors, including the clarification of budget policy.

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