The United States and Iran have announced a two-week truce. What does this mean?

90 minutes before the expiration of US President Donald Trump's ultimatum demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Washington and Tehran announced a mutual suspension of hostilities for the period of peace talks. They will be based on Iran's ten-point plan. Why the parties abandoned aggressive rhetoric, and what it means for the region and the global economy — in the Izvestia article.

Iran's position

• Two days ago, Iran provided the United States with its demands for a truce, which were edited during the negotiations. They included a guarantee to stop attacks on the Islamic Republic and allied forces, including the Lebanese Hezbollah, as well as the lifting of all sanctions. Iran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the passage fee of about $ 2 million will be shared with Oman — these funds will be used to restore the destroyed infrastructure. In the previous version of the plan, Iran demanded direct compensation for the destruction from the United States.

• Iran has demanded the withdrawal of American troops from the Middle East and a UN Security Council resolution on the agreement, which will make it binding. He also initially included an "enrichment permit" for his nuclear program in the terms, but this requirement was excluded from the English version of the document, which was distributed by Iranian diplomats. On April 8, Tehran agreed to a mutual ceasefire and the opening of the strait if the vessels act "in coordination" with the Iranian armed forces.

Taking a break: How lasting will the truce be between the US and Iran

The dispute over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, but Washington and Tehran are seeking to avoid a resumption of hostilities.

The US position

• The "full, immediate and safe" opening of the Strait of Hormuz was the main requirement of the United States for the suspension of hostilities. In fact, this position was dictated by the US domestic market, where the cost of fuel doubled during the conflict (we wrote here about how markets influence US policy). According to Trump's statement posted on the social network, the United States has already "exceeded" its objectives in Iran. He called the Iranian 10-point plan an "acceptable working basis for negotiations" and said that "almost all the contentious issues" that had taken place in the past had been agreed between the United States and Iran.

• Iran's demands look tough enough, but experts believe that some of them will be fully implemented, although not fully. Despite the fact that the withdrawal of American troops from the Middle East effectively means surrender, a reduction in the US military presence in the region is inevitable, as American military bases have been severely affected by the bombing.

• The United States has already begun lifting sanctions against Iran, easing restrictions on Iranian oil from mid-March. The likelihood of the frozen assets being returned to Tehran remains questionable, but Iran benefits from maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz anyway: the Strait passage commission will provide Iran with up to $96 billion annually. This will ensure the growth of Iranian GDP by 20% from the pre-war level.

The world exhaled: the United States and Iran signed a truce for two weeks

Tehran has put forward 10 demands to Washington and promised to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Market reaction

• After the truce was announced, oil prices fell: the benchmark Brent crude fell by 14% to $93.90 per barrel, and the American West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 19%. The stock market, on the contrary, grew: the MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index rose by 5.1%, Wall Street stock index futures - by 2.7%, European options — by 5.3%. US Treasury bonds strengthened, the dollar fell by 1%, and gold rose by 3.2%, indicating a reassessment of risks by investors. During the conflict, gold fell in price by 9% because investors redistributed assets in favor of bonds, which, with the tightening of monetary policy by central banks, bring higher returns.

• European gas futures fell by 20% after the ceasefire was announced. But the restoration of energy supplies may take a long time, as production has been reduced or stopped, and infrastructure has been affected by attacks. For example, the restoration of the Qatar Ras Laffana liquefied natural gas complex, damaged as a result of the attacks, is possible only after 4 months. Market experts rule out a return of the Brent brand to prices below $80, while a violation of the ceasefire may raise the price of oil above $100 again.

• How long this trend will continue depends on the outcome of the negotiations and the restoration of uninterrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced the opening of the strait "taking into account technical limitations," while Trump demanded the full and immediate opening of the sea route. The shipowners are concerned about the lack of details of the agreement and expect to evacuate their vessels from the region, as the ceasefire does not guarantee the stability of the route. Currently, more than 800 ships are blocked in the Persian Gulf. In addition, the "passage fee" charged by Tehran will inevitably affect the global economy, since the commission will have to be included in the cost of transporting energy and other goods.

What does this mean?

The truce was the result of the efforts of several countries: Iran was influenced by China, and the United States was influenced by allied countries in the Persian Gulf, which were also interested in ending the conflict as soon as possible and restoring maritime trade. Pakistan also played a significant role as a mediator. However, the fact that U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance, who describes himself as a "skeptic of foreign intervention," played a key role in the negotiations may mean a reduction in the influence of the "hawks" on U.S. policy after the failure of the military campaign in Iran. Washington will probably now try to focus on domestic political issues, especially given the growing discontent among the electorate ahead of the congressional elections.

• The prospect of ending the conflict will depend on the position of Israel, which had previously disrupted US-Iranian negotiations: Tel Aviv is already in fact violating one of the points of Tehran's demands by refusing to cease hostilities in Lebanon. Despite the US statements about achieving the stated goals, there is no reliable information about the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear program and weapons. The truce can be used by the parties for a temporary respite, which the United States can use to safely transfer troops to the region, and Iran can use to protect nuclear facilities, replenish weapons stocks and mobilize.

When preparing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

• the Americanist Malek Dudakov;
• the American writer Dmitry Drobnitsky.