The orientalist estimated the likelihood of a 45-day truce between the United States and Iran.

Initiatives for temporary de-escalation in the Middle East do not yet look like a sustainable solution to the conflict and rather resemble an attempt to gain time. This was stated to Izvestia on April 6 by political analyst Dmitry Brije.

"From my point of view, such an initiative is not a path to sustainable de—escalation, but rather an attempt at urgent crisis management and postponing the war. The scheme under discussion assumes a two-stage format: first, a temporary cease-fire for about 45 days, then a transition to broader negotiations. At the same time, the likelihood of reaching an agreement in the near future remains low, and the lack of official confirmation from the United States indicates that it is more about working out positions through intermediaries than a ready—made deal," he said.

He stressed that the pressure on Iran has not led to a change in the political regime, despite the attacks on key figures. In his opinion, the situation in the country remains stable, and there are no prerequisites for internal division or large-scale protests similar to the events of the "Arab Spring".

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The expert believes that a possible pause in the conflict may be beneficial to Tehran primarily from a pragmatic point of view — to prevent attacks on infrastructure, fix "red lines" and discuss sanctions relief. However, such a pause will be acceptable only if there are political guarantees and should not look like a concession.

At the same time, according to the political scientist, even a temporary truce can be used by the parties to regroup forces. He noted that the positions of the countries of the region remain heterogeneous: some of the Gulf states support continued pressure on Iran, while others advocate a diplomatic settlement.

Bridge also pointed out that the most likely scenario is not a full-fledged peace, but a temporary tactical pause or continuation of negotiations without quick results amid the continuing threat of escalation.

"Most likely, we will see an intermediate formula — bargaining under pressure, where diplomacy and military pressure will run in parallel," he stressed.

According to the orientalist, a sustainable settlement will require a review of the entire security architecture in the region, as well as broader international participation in decision-making. In the meantime, as noted by Bridge, the parties are limited to statements, without moving on to practical steps to reduce tension.

On the same day, the Axios portal reported that the United States and Iran, with the participation of regional mediators, are discussing the possibility of concluding a truce for a period of 45 days. At the same time, it is noted that the chances of concluding an agreement within the next 48 hours are low.

On April 4, US President Donald Trump said that Iran has about two days left to conclude an agreement with Washington. He pointed out that the United States would allegedly launch powerful strikes against Iran in the next two to three weeks and "throw the country back into the Stone Age."

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