The orientalist estimated the likelihood of global famine due to lack of fertilizers

It is too early to say that a shortage of fertilizers can lead to global famine. This was stated by Elmira Imamkuliyeva, senior lecturer at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics, Head of the Scientific and Educational Laboratory for Modern Iran Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, on Friday, April 3.

According to the expert, the world is now faced with a situation where importers are experiencing an acute shortage of agrochemicals supplies due to the impossibility of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The market may miss about a third of fertilizer supplies. This happened just at the time when the Northern Hemisphere is entering the sowing campaign. At the same time, Russia, China and Turkey, which could supply fertilizers, impose restrictions on supplies.

According to Imamkuliyeva, the Achilles' heel is the food security of Arab and African countries. It will also be important what reserves are available in the states with the largest population, for example, Egypt or Sudan.

She added that if the forecasts come true and this year's spring and summer turn out to be too hot and cause droughts, the need for fertilizers will seriously increase. In this situation, special attention should be paid to countries with large populations (30-40-50 million people).

Ekpert clarified that by now there are no free fertilizers left on the market, everything has already been either booked or bought. Those who have not made purchases in advance may face short-term shortages.

Imamkuliyeva also drew attention to forecasts that the rest of the 21st century will be a period of wars over water, and recalled last summer, which provoked a number of humanitarian disasters.

"For example, there was talk about the resettlement of the population of the capital of Tehran due to drought. But Iran has two major freshwater rivers at its disposal — the Tigris and Euphrates. Interruptions in the supply of fresh water can create extremely dangerous situations," the orientalist said in an interview with Lenta.Ru .

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Earlier, on March 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the conflict in the Middle East is clouding the prospects for the economies of countries that have shown signs of sustained recovery after previous crises, RT reports.

The article also states that the shock is global but asymmetric, with poorer countries and energy importers in an even more vulnerable position, according to the website. kp.ru .

On March 30, the IMF reported that the US and Israeli military operation against Iran would lead to higher prices and a slowdown in global economic growth. IMF analysts note that much in this situation will depend on how much the conflict in the Middle East drags on. However, regardless of this, the conditions for the development of the global financial system have already deteriorated significantly.

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