Spring aggravation: the new car market has started to grow
In March, the market for new passenger cars exceeded 100,000 units for the first time this year. The increase compared to the same period last year and February of this year is more than impressive — 30%. Izvestia investigated why they were actively buying cars in March and what would happen to the market next.
In March, 104,278 new passenger cars were registered in Russia, which is 30.6% more than in March 2025, the analytical agency Autostat reported, citing data from JSC PPK. This is a serious leap in comparison with January and February, when the market volume reached 80 thousand passenger cars.
Thanks to the March result, car sales for the first quarter increased (+7.3%) compared to the same period last year. In three months, 264.9 thousand cars were sold.
Which cars were bought in March
In March, Lada traditionally leads by a wide margin from other brands — 25,167 cars. This is the same as in March last year and more than in February this year. The leadership among foreign cars belongs to Haval, whose cars sold 14.8 thousand units in March. The Russian Tenet is on the third line (10.3 thousand), followed by Geely and Belgee (6346 and 5184 units, respectively).
The list of best-selling brands also includes Changan, Toyota, Jetour and Jaecoo, Solaris, Mazda, GAC, BMW and Omoda. The Russian brand Evolute, which produces exclusively electric vehicles and hybrids, closes the top 15. Mazda (12.9 times) and Evolve (11.6 times) showed the greatest growth by March 2025. Only Changan (by 10%) and Omoda (by 28%) are in the red.
In March, Lada Granta family cars continued to dominate the Russian car market. At the beginning of spring, 9861 units were sold, including those produced on the basis of Granta. Haval Jolion sold 5,547 copies and regained the title of the most popular crossover. The February leader, the Tenet T7 crossover, dropped a notch in March (5,480 units).
This is followed by the Lada Vesta family and the Niva Travel SUV (4,274 and 3,987 units, respectively). The top ten bestsellers included the Tenet T4 crossover (3,840 units), the Haval M6 crossover (3,414 units), the Lada Niva Legend SUV (2,924 units), the Belgee X50 crossover (2,780 units) and the Geely Monjaro crossover (2,631 units). All of these models showed double-digit growth compared to March last year, with the exception of Grants (-7.8%) and Vesta (-40.5%).
Another situation
According to analysts at Autostat, the March results were affected by pent-up demand combined with lower deposit rates, the release of a large number of new products to the market and attractive installment payment programs from manufacturers. Another factor is that at the end of the quarter, dealers try to fulfill sales plans in order to receive bonuses from car companies.
Sergey Udalov, Executive director of Autostat, also pointed to an "emotional" factor: if nothing prompted going to buy a car in cold February, then an early warm spring came in March and the mood of buyers changed.
In addition, the situation was completely different last year, Udalov noted. Due to the large drains, Russians did not have the desire to buy a car until the end of the summer, and only the news about the change in the recycling charge increased the demand noticeably. In addition, many had expectations that all global brands would return.
Now buyers have an understanding that car prices will rise and deposit rates will decrease. Therefore, many people wanted to have time to buy a car on a subsidized loan, explained Sergey Udalov.
The competition is intensifying
The successes and failures of individual brands are related to discounts and loan terms.
— Changan had interesting programs in terms of down payment and loan term. Then they curtailed all the programs and at that moment they began to lose a lot in sales," said Dmitry Yarygin, deputy head of the analytics department at the Autostat agency.
The decline in the dynamics of individual brands is due to increased competition, said Nikolai Ivanov, director of the New Car Sales Department at ROLF.
— Chinese manufacturers offer more attractive conditions due to localization, and the choice of buyers is shifting in their direction. Also, the results of brands that showed negative dynamics could be affected by less competitive financial programs, he noted.;
The share of domestic-built cars has risen to 61%, according to Autostat, In particular, Tenet cars have replaced Chery.
Until the loophole is closed
At the same time, alternative imports also revived in March and reached 16%. Importers have adapted to the new requirements and are importing lower—capacity vehicles.
A significant increase in consumer activity was facilitated by the change announced on April 1 in the rules for calculating scrap collection for cars imported by individuals from the EAEU countries, Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem, told Izvestia.
— This, in particular, explains the seventh place that Toyota took — people tried to bring cars until the loophole was closed. The new recycling rules have not yet been introduced, and it is not yet known when they will come into force. Therefore, it can be assumed that in April, the import of cars from the EAEU will be significant," he said.
Customers are returning to the game
Such a serious breakthrough is the result of a "perfect storm" of several multidirectional factors that converged at one point, Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto, told Izvestia.,
— Firstly, there is a rush of demand against the background of regulatory changes. Buyers and dealers, trying to avoid a sharp rise in prices, accelerated purchases in March, actively sorting through the stocks of the previous stock according to the old rules. Secondly, the lending economy has become noticeably more attractive. The Bank of Russia continues its monetary policy easing cycle. This has had a direct impact on car loan rates, making them more affordable. At the same time, the yield on deposits went down. In addition, manufacturers and dealers actively stimulated demand. The traditional desire to close the quarter with good performance and receive bonuses was reinforced by real installment programs at 0.01% and attractive special offers. The terms of the state program of preferential car loans have also been expanded, as a result, we see not only growth among the leaders (Haval and Belgee), but also a twofold increase in sales from brands such as Toyota, which indicates the return to the game of buyers who previously postponed the decision, — said Irina Frank.
The lull after the assault
It is too early to talk about market stabilization or a trend towards sustainable growth, experts and market players believe.
— April is likely to be a correction month. The hype factor around recycling will go away, and we will see the classic market reaction — a temporary lull after the storming of car dealerships. It's also worth remembering that April was a very strong month in 2025. this creates a high base for statistics. Fundamental drivers, such as the declining key interest rate and, as a result, more affordable loans, will not go away. If the Central Bank continues to ease policy, it will provide support to the market in the second half of the year, Irina Frank believes.
Rolfe expects demand to remain at the March level in April — about 100-105 thousand cars.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
