The expert named the reasons for the decline in activity in the real estate market

The decline in activity in the new building market in Russia is not due to the crisis, but to a combination of high interest rates and changes in the terms of preferential mortgages. Valery Tumin, Director of the Russian and CIS Markets at Pham Properties, told Izvestia about this on April 1.

"What we are seeing now is not a temporary pause, but a natural result of two simultaneous strikes on demand. The first is market mortgages: as of March 26, bank rates are in the range of 15.9—20.7% with the Central Bank's key rate at 15%. Even the lower limit of this corridor remains prohibitive for the mass buyer. The second is the tightening of family mortgages from February 1: the "one preferential mortgage per family" rule has cut off both investors and some families with older children," the expert said.

At the same time, a significant share of the demand was realized in advance: in January in St. Petersburg, the number of transactions under equity participation agreements increased by 70% year-on-year.

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Tumin noted that the regions where the market depended on preferential mortgages were most affected by the decline in demand. In St. Petersburg, the average cost of apartments decreased by 2.5%, in Krasnodar — by 4.1%, in Rostov-on-Don — by 3.3%. At the same time, prices in Moscow and the Moscow region remain stable due to a shift in supply to more expensive segments.

According to the expert, developers do not resort to direct price reductions in order not to violate the terms of project financing. Instead, the share of installments is growing, which already reaches about 40% of transactions. At the same time, developers are reducing the launch of new projects: the volume of construction in 2026 may decrease by about 15% compared to last year.

The expert believes that the current situation may lead to a shortage of supply in the future.

"When the key interest rate starts to decrease to levels at which the market mortgage becomes at least conditionally lifting — below 15% per annum — pent-up demand will return, and by that time there will be fewer new volumes. The deficit, which is currently being formed in a quiet mode, may become the main price driver in 2027-2028," he stressed.

Alexander Aksenenko, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Construction and Housing and Communal Services, said on March 9 that a family mortgage for the purchase of apartments on the secondary market could begin operating as early as 2026. According to him, the expansion of mortgage programs and the improvement of conditions for the purchase of housing can potentially contribute to an increase in the birth rate if real estate becomes more affordable for families.

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