The Central Bank called an increase in the average annual oil price in 2026 highly likely.

The average annual oil price is highly likely to rise in 2026, even if tensions in the Middle East decrease over the next quarter. This forecast was made on March 1 by the Central Bank of Russia in the summary of the key rate discussion.

"The impact of current events on the global economy and commodity markets will depend on the duration and scale of geopolitical tensions. The resulting price shock in the commodity markets increases inflationary risks in the global economy and at the same time increases the risks of a slowdown in its growth. Even if tensions decrease over the next quarter, it is highly likely that the average annual oil price in 2026 may be higher than the February forecast," the summary published on the Central Bank's website says.

The regulator added that the conflict in the Middle East was a key factor that rejected the projected figures. The Central Bank said that reducing the base oil price in the budget rule, subject to cost adjustments, would strengthen the budget and reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external prices.

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European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen announced on March 31 that the European Union (EU) is considering reviving energy crisis measures that were applied in 2022 to deal with market disruptions caused by the war in Iran. According to him, since the beginning of the US and Israeli military operation against Iran, gas prices in the European Union have increased by 70%, and oil prices by 60%.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on April 1 that the events in Iran are already having a direct impact on energy markets. According to him, the Russian Federation can play an important role in shaping a new architecture of global logistics and international trade by offering partners routes that are advantageous in terms of timing and diversification.

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