Invasion is imminent: The US is preparing for ground raids in Iran
The United States is preparing to conduct a ground operation in Iran, which, according to Western media reports, could last from several weeks to several months. However, first of all, raids involving regular infantry units can pose a danger to the Americans themselves. The possible scenarios of Washington's ground operation and Tehran's possible response are described in the Izvestia article.
Ready for the raid
The US military has been developing plans for a ground operation in Iran for several years, and US President Donald Trump is considering the possibility of sending troops to a combat zone. This was announced by the former commander of the US Central Command, retired General Frank McKenzie in the Face the Nation program on CBS.
"For many years we have been considering options for action along the southern coast of Iran: the seizure of islands, the seizure of small bases. These were usually raids. And a raid is an operation with a planned retreat. You're not going to stay there for long. But some of these islands could be captured and held," the military explained.
Such actions by Washington, he said, would be quite humiliating for Iran and would give the United States weight in the negotiations.
On the eve it became known that Trump is considering the possibility of conducting a military operation to extract enriched uranium in Iran. We are talking about the possible export of almost 450 kg of uranium. In addition, the American leader allowed the seizure of the Iranian island of Kharq, through which up to 90% of the country's oil exports pass. The American authorities believe that this will force Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz and eventually lead to lower energy prices.
The capture of the island, as Western media write, would actually cut off the economic ties of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, preventing them from continuing the war.
"If you capture the island of Kharq, you can completely paralyze the Iranian oil economy. And the beauty of capturing it is that you don't destroy it," General Mackenzie said.
Trump does not think that Iran has any defensive structures on the island. At the same time, he assures that the indirect talks between Washington and Tehran, mediated by Pakistan, are "progressing successfully." The US president has already given Iran an ultimatum: either Tehran accepts the agreement by April 6 and the war ends, or the Americans will strike at the country's energy sector.
The American military leadership is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, according to The Washington Post. At the same time, we are not talking about a full-scale invasion, but about raids that can be carried out by regular infantry units.
At the end of last week, about 3,500 sailors and marines arrived at the central command post in the Middle East aboard the destroyer USS Tripoli. The amphibious group of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Force includes "transport and strike fighters, as well as amphibious operations and tactical equipment."
Washington emphasizes that the large-scale deployment of troops in the Middle East a month after the start of the war does not mean at all that Trump has decided to use ground forces. According to General Frank McKenzie, the United States can achieve some success without ground operations in Iran.
"I think that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the achievement of any agreement on the ballistic missile program, on the nuclear program, can be considered a success. This is probably all that can be hoped for," the military explained.
In addition to the capture of Kharq, the possibility of conducting raids in other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to detect and destroy weapons that can target military and commercial vessels is also being discussed.
US citizens are against it
Meanwhile, as The Washington Post draws attention, potential ground operations may pose a great danger to the United States itself.
"As part of such a mission, American personnel may be exposed to a number of threats, in particular from Iranian drones and missiles, ground—based weapons and improvised explosive devices," the publication says.
Tehran warns that it is ready to "unleash fire" on any American troops who try to enter the territory of Iran. Also, in the event of a land invasion, ships in the Red Sea will be attacked.
In the past few weeks, the Islamic Republic has strengthened the defense of Kharq by deploying an additional military contingent and air defense systems on the island. In addition, the authorities have installed anti-personnel and anti-tank mines, as well as sent portable anti-aircraft missile systems to the island.
Iran now has significant military resources, the country has developed missile and unmanned technologies, and the forces that the United States is pulling together are not enough to defeat Tehran.
All this negatively affects the assessment of the actions of the American authorities by residents of the United States. According to opinion polls commissioned by CBS News/YouGov, 60% of respondents immediately oppose the war with Iran.
The tasks of the USA and Iran
In general, there are two main scenarios under discussion for a US ground operation against Iran, Alexander Ermakov, a junior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, told Izvestia.
"These are the seizure of islands in the Gulf to improve the safety situation for navigation and pressure on Tehran by occupying its oil infrastructure, as well as the seizure of nuclear facilities where highly enriched nuclear materials are stored," the political scientist said.
There is also an option to occupy a foothold on the northern shore of the Persian Gulf. For example, this can be done in a narrow place in the Strait of Hormuz. However, such a scenario requires larger forces, so the expert considered such a development less likely.
"In both cases, the problem for the United States is not the occupation of facilities, which they will surely be able to do with sufficient confidence, but their long—term retention," the expert suggested.
This will be accompanied by inevitable losses, he explained. The ground forces will be under fire from small drones and artillery in the territory, which, according to the Izvestia interlocutor, will also be mined, since the Iranians' task will be to inflict maximum damage.
— At the same time, it is also indicative, as they say, "with content for social networks", in attempts to put pressure on public opinion in the United States. So this is a big risk for Washington, which is why Trump is hesitating," Ermakov summed up.
In turn, Elena Panina, director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies, drew attention in her Telegram channel to a publication by the Quincy Anti-militarist Institute, which cites the opinion of a number of former American military personnel opposed to the operation on the Iranian islands.
"This is not the first time that the United States has discussed the morale of the army. But this is one of the first cases in a long time when the question of the meaning of war begins to be considered as a factor limiting the very possibility of conflict, and not just its effectiveness," the political scientist said.
A significant moment, according to the expert, was the resignation of Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, due to disagreement with the attack on Iran.
"In fact, the question 'Why this war?' is one of the factors that Washington is finding increasingly difficult to ignore. If the operation is quick, with minimal losses and allows you to convincingly declare victory, then Trump will not have any special problems. But if the losses are heavy and the war drags on, it could be a political disaster for the whole of Trumpism," the analyst concluded.
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