The political scientist assessed the risks of Iran's withdrawal from the NPT

The discussion of Iran's possible withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) at the level of parliament and political elites indicates a serious change in Tehran's strategy. This was stated on March 30 by political analyst Dmitry Brije to Izvestia.

"The very fact that the issue of withdrawal from the agreements is being discussed at the parliamentary level is already a signal of a reassessment of Iran's entire previous nuclear strategy. This announcement may be perceived as a rejection of previous restrictions and a transition to a tougher line of pressure," the expert noted.

The expert stressed that legally the exit procedure takes at least three months and requires justification of extraordinary circumstances. However, the key effect occurs long before the completion of formal procedures, affecting the perception of the situation in the region.

He noted that Iran's rejection of existing agreements could lead to increased tensions in the Middle East. In this case, the countries of the region will begin to actively review their security strategy, strengthening military cooperation and considering additional deterrence measures.

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According to him, Israel and the United States can consider this period as a window for possible actions to prevent the development of a nuclear program. At the same time, the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf may increase their dependence on external security guarantees, as well as consider the creation of new alliances.

The expert added that against the background of limited access by international inspectors to a number of facilities and uncertainty around Iran's infrastructure, the risks of escalation remain high. Under these conditions, any move by Tehran will be perceived as harshly as possible.

"The most likely scenario remains the use of the topic of withdrawal from the agreements as a tool of pressure without an immediate rupture. However, with the transition to a complete abandonment of international control, the situation may enter a phase of acute crisis. Such a scenario can lead to an acceleration of the hidden development of the nuclear program and an increase in the likelihood of a military conflict. As a result, the region may face a new model of confrontation based on nuclear deterrence and the constant threat of escalation," the political scientist concluded.

On the same day, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic, Esmail Bagai, announced that the Iranian parliament was considering the possibility of the country's withdrawal from the NPT. According to him, Tehran has never sought to create and use nuclear weapons. He clarified that Iran has a clear position, which is to ban and destroy weapons of mass destruction.

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