Europe is preparing for a new migration crisis due to Iran. What you need to know

​​In Europe, they fear that the protracted conflict over Iran may eventually lead to a new migration crisis, as in 2015, when more than 1 million people arrived in the EU. There is no mass flow yet, but the authorities are already preparing and discussing measures with Turkey, through which the main routes previously ran. What you need to know about the migration situation in Europe is in the Izvestia article.

Are there any real prerequisites for mass migration?

• A large-scale migration crisis is not expected in the near future. The current conflict differs from the Syrian war in that so far there are no major ground fighting and massive destruction of cities that would force millions of people to flee. The strikes are mostly targeted, and the affected countries, including Iran and the Gulf States, are either in control of the situation or have sufficient resources to prevent the population from seeking mass migration.

• So far, only limited movements of certain groups of people are possible, including the more affluent, who may temporarily move to safe countries. However, there are no prerequisites for a large flow of refugees to Europe now, as it was in 2015, although the EU, against the background of US statements about the likely conduct of a ground operation, is already strengthening the readiness of border services.

• If the refugee flow does occur, the main burden, as before, will fall on the southern countries — primarily Greece and Italy, to a lesser extent Spain, since they are geographically closer to the region. However, even this scenario is complicated logistically. Neighboring countries, such as Turkey, are also not interested in accepting new refugees and are already under pressure due to previous migration waves.

How the conflict over Iran affects the economies of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Analysis (part 1)

EU's preparations for the influx of migrants

• The longer the war in Iran continues, the more Europe fears a new influx of refugees. These concerns force the authorities to work out scenarios in advance and conduct closed-door negotiations, including with Turkey, which previously played a key role as a transit territory for more than 1 million migrants during the 2015 crisis. Ankara assured Brussels that it has reinforced the border with Iran and is ready to cooperate to prevent a repeat of that crisis.

• So far, there are no signs of mass migration, but European leaders are closely monitoring the development of the conflict. The experience of Syria shows that the peak of migration can occur years after the outbreak of war. At the same time, the EU fears not only humanitarian consequences, but also political ones. A new wave of refugees will once again strengthen the positions of the right-wing forces.

• Europe is trying to be proactive. In recent years, border crossing regulations have been tightened, and the flow of illegal crossings has decreased by about 25% in 2025. Turkey, which has already accepted millions of refugees (including about 2.3 million Syrians), has prepared several response scenarios, from creating buffer zones to housing up to 90,000 people in camps. However, with prolonged destabilization, especially given the presence of more than 760,000 Afghan refugees in Iran, the risk of a large-scale crisis cannot be completely ruled out.

Changing the EU migration policy

• Attempts to reform the EU migration system began after the crisis of 2015, when more than 1 million people applied for asylum and serious disagreements arose between the countries of the union. For almost a decade, negotiations have been underway on new rules, including the redistribution of migrants and the acceleration of expulsions. The updated pact is due to enter into force on June 12, and the situation around Iran may immediately test its effectiveness.

How Trump can get out of the conflict with Iran. Analysis

• The new migration pact introduces faster registration procedures, uniform rules and a mechanism for distributing migrants between countries. It is planned that at least 30 thousand people can be redistributed annually, and if the country refuses to accept, it pays compensation of about 20 thousand euros per person. This is an attempt to make the system more equitable and reduce the burden on the countries of southern Europe.

• European politicians do not rule out a repeat of the crisis. Hundreds of thousands of people in the Middle East have already fled their homes, and about 1 million people have fled their homes in Lebanon due to clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. At the same time, even before the current conflict, there were about 19 million internally displaced persons in the Middle East region. Even a partial destabilization of Iran, with a population of more than 90 million people, can cause a large-scale influx of refugees, although so far there has been no mass movement to Europe.

Strengthening border control

• Control of external borders is carried out mainly by the forces of the EU states themselves — their border and naval services. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) performs an auxiliary function, providing equipment and specialists, especially in high-pressure areas. In 2015, Frontex was not ready for the crisis due to a sharp increase in the migration flow. At that time, the main burden fell on the border states, primarily Greece and Italy, through which up to 90% of arrivals passed. This greatly exceeded the capacity of local services to register and accommodate people.

• At the moment, Frontex's resources have grown significantly compared to the period of the migration crisis. The agency's budget for 2025 is about €1.12 billion, while in 2015 it was about eight times less — about €143 million.

The war in the Persian Gulf may lead to a shortage of drinking water. What you need to know

• The lack of a unified policy among the countries of the union created additional difficulties. Many States temporarily restored internal border controls, and the refugee distribution system did not actually work, as a result of which a significant part of migrants moved freely around Europe without registration. The entry into force of the new migration pact in June this year is expected to change the situation and the document is likely to be tested in practice very quickly.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

● Director of the Center for European Information, international political scientist Nikolai Topornin;

● Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Vadim Trukhachev.