- Статьи
- World
- War on the threshold: Washington is getting closer to launching a ground operation in Iran
War on the threshold: Washington is getting closer to launching a ground operation in Iran
The United States may launch a ground operation in Iran due to the impasse in negotiations. Tehran believes that Washington's calls for dialogue only distract attention from plans for further escalation. Military forces are being pulled into the region day after day: experts believe that the United States is preparing to take control of the Strait of Hormuz due to rising energy prices. Launching a ground operation in violation of existing principles of international law would be a serious crime, the Federation Council told Izvestia. Meanwhile, a new round of escalation is also being observed in Lebanon. Israel is exchanging blows with Hezbollah, which is leading to an increase in civilian casualties. On March 28, Al Mayadeen journalists who collaborated with Izvestia media Center were killed by a targeted IDF strike.
Are Iran and the United States conducting a dialogue
The war in Iran has been going on for more than a month. According to various information, there are from 1.9 thousand to 3.5 thousand dead and 20 thousand injured in the republic. Almost 1.5 thousand civilians became victims, including 217 children. The American side, according to official data, lost 13 soldiers killed and 300 wounded. However, Iran believes that the real death toll from the United States may reach 800 people. There are also casualties among Israelis — according to media reports, at least 19 people were killed.
Over the past weekend, Israel has attacked ballistic missile sites around Tehran. The media reported a "wide wave of strikes" on targets in the Iranian capital, including command centers in the city. However, residential areas, civilian infrastructure, research and educational buildings were damaged as a result of the attack. Separately, a strike was confirmed on the office building of the Qatari Al Arabi TV channel in northern Tehran. On March 28, Iran attacked Alba (one of the world's largest aluminum production plants) in Bahrain and Emirates Global Aluminum in the UAE.
The escalation is observed against the background of the 10-day "truce" announced by American President Donald Trump — until April 6, the United States does not strike Iran's energy facilities, focusing on military infrastructure. This is the second such "action" in recent days — before that, the head of the White House ordered not to strike for five days. The reason was a certain "successful negotiation process" between the Iranian and American sides, which Washington allegedly did not want to disrupt.
Tehran does not officially recognize the fact of these negotiations and, according to the Iranian media, rejected the truce. "Iran will end the war when it decides to do so, and when its own conditions are met," Press TV quoted an unnamed official as saying. Moreover, the authorities of the republic believe that the diplomatic actions of the United States are just another trick. Axios quotes an informed source in Iran who said that Donald Trump has already deceived the country twice, and now Tehran does not want to be "led by the nose."
In June 2025, Israel attacked Iran a few days before the nuclear talks. At the time, Trump claimed that the United States knew about the attack in advance. At the end of February 2026, it was reported that Washington and Tehran allegedly came to a preliminary understanding on the continuation of negotiations, but soon a large-scale conflict began that engulfed the entire Middle East.
Nevertheless, the American scholar Malek Dudakov believes that indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran are "to one degree or another" underway. The direct dialogue between the countries, which is being forced by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, is broken down by the maximalist demands of the parties.
The United States has already submitted proposals for negotiations to Iran. This is a 15-point plan, including, according to media reports, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the number of ballistic missiles of Tehran, depriving the republic of all nuclear capabilities and facilities, ending Iran's support for groups considered terrorist in the United States, as well as lifting sanctions. In response, Iran demands the withdrawal of American troops from the region, compensation, and guarantees that the war will not happen again.
As a result, an impasse in the negotiation process could trigger a US ground military operation. Unless, of course, Washington initially uses calls for diplomacy to mask its real plans.
Washington, with its reports of fruitful negotiations, is able, firstly, to intensify disagreements within the Iranian leadership — those who are determined to resist the United States may begin to suspect more moderate individuals of being ready to make concessions to the Americans. In addition, the United States can thus weaken the vigilance of the Iranian leadership — although it seems that this technique should no longer work, given the past experience that the Iranian side has.
The likelihood of a U.S. ground operation in Iran
Despite the fact that the administration of Donald Trump says it is ready to reach an agreement, the United States is pulling ground forces to the Middle East, Dudakov noted. The American authorities have not officially confirmed the scenario of a ground operation. According to Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, the troop build—up is just a signal for Iran to "gather its thoughts and resolve the situation."
According to Axios, the United States intends to deploy over 10,000 troops to the Middle East. At the same time, a number of media outlets write that the ground operation will begin this week. There are already units in the region that can take part in ground attacks. On March 24, the media reported that 50,000 military personnel were in the region.
"The United States administration should understand that a ground operation against Iran could be the beginning of a new military and political era in the world," Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. — A lot more blood will be shed, and this is a much more significant factor in any policy.
According to him, launching a ground operation in violation of the existing principles of international law is a serious crime.
The media writes that the United States is considering an invasion of the island of Kharq or its blockade. It is Iran's main oil export center. It is also possible to capture Larak Island, which is also necessary for Tehran to strengthen control over the Strait of Hormuz. There are bunkers, attack boats and radars. Another goal of a possible ground operation is the capture of Abu Musa Island and two smaller islands at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is also considering blocking or arresting ships carrying Iranian oil in the Strait of Hormuz.
The US military has also worked out plans for ground operations deep inside Iran. The goal is to capture highly enriched uranium at nuclear facilities. But instead of an operation on the ground, the military can launch large-scale airstrikes against targets in order to deprive Iran of access to the material. So far, the American authorities have not decided on the implementation of these scenarios. But they may be resorted to if negotiations do not bring tangible results in the near future.
According to the Central Command of the US Armed Forces, American Marines on the Tripoli ship are already in the region. The agency does not specify where exactly. The most likely mooring location is Bahrain, where the headquarters of the US 5th Fleet is located, from where Iran is about 300 km away.
The ship USS Tripoli itself is also noteworthy. It is a versatile amphibious assault ship, similar in capabilities to a light aircraft carrier. The vessel can carry dozens of aircraft units, in particular, the MV—22 Osprey multipurpose medium transport and amphibious tiltrotor and the fifth-generation F-35B fighter. According to the stated characteristics, the USS Tripoli can accommodate a crew of 1.2 thousand people and about 1.7 thousand paratroopers. According to media reports, there are about 2.5 thousand Marines on board the ship.
USS Tripoli
The USS Tripoli is part of the amphibious ship group, which includes the New Orleans and San Diego transport docks. The number of troops on each is up to 800 people. But even if we add up the maximum potential of the group, this is critically insufficient for a full-fledged operation. The additional 4-4.5 thousand troops can only be used in limited raids, increased security and a show of force, but not for a full-fledged ground invasion.
— Iran's mobilization resource "on paper" is sufficient for counter—operation, - orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia. — Another question is how manageable it will be in reality, especially given the growing pressure on the Iranian government system and attempts by opponents to decapitate the commanders of the army, the IRGC and the Basij militia as much as possible.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf noted on March 29: the republic's fighters will be able to confront the United States on the ground, and the missiles are already ready.
The Americans want to launch ground operations to gain control of the Strait of Hormuz, but such actions with small forces will lead to serious losses, Dudakov stressed. In his opinion, the time of this Trump war is running out. The president can only fight for two months without congressional approval, which he will have to request as early as the end of April. And the Democrats will not provide it so easily. In addition, the issue of Congress allocating $200 billion from the budget for the war is in limbo.
Iran has already stated at the UN that only "non-hostile" vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The artery through which about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG flows remains the main risk factor for the market. The largest banks warn that in a protracted crisis, a prolonged blockade could take 13-14 million barrels per day off the market, and global demand for energy resources would be under severe stress. According to some forecasts, Brent crude oil may cost $180 or more per barrel by the end of April.
In such a situation, it would be ideal for the United States to involve its NATO allies in a military operation, but they refuse. The American administration wanted to call Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Canada, and even Asian countries like Japan and South Korea to war. But the US partners did not want to get involved in an adventure with a dubious outcome.
A new round of escalation in Lebanon
Meanwhile, there are serious risks of an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the expansion of the buffer zone in southern Lebanon. The purpose of this decision is to "prevent the threat of invasion and divert anti—tank rocket attacks" from the country's border.
For this reason, Israel is unlikely to participate in a potential US ground operation in Iran, Tsukanov noted. Israel has already planned to mobilize 400,000 reservists. Since the beginning of March, the country has been conducting a ground operation in southern Lebanon and is only going to intensify its offensive. However, Hezbollah has a significant margin of safety and survivability. Therefore, the United States and Israel are making the main bet on the destabilization of Iran, hoping that, having lost their patron, other groups and movements will surrender themselves, Tsukanov concluded.
In Lebanon, according to the Ministry of Health on March 28, almost 1,2 thousand people died, including at least 124 children.
On March 28, Israel struck Lebanon again. Despite the claims of attacks only on members of the Shiite group, media workers were injured. A targeted strike by the IDF killed Al Mayadeen journalists who collaborated with the Izvestia news Center. The victims were correspondent Fatima Ftouni, her brother, photojournalist Mohammed Ftouni, and Al-Manar TV reporter Ali Hassan Shahaib. The Israeli military hit a car in which there were a driver and three media employees. According to media reports, 47 people were killed during the same IDF strike in southern Lebanon, including nine medical workers.
The Russian Foreign Ministry called the IDF strike on a car with journalists a grave crime. Israel argued that there were allegedly terrorists in the car. The Foreign Ministry called such statements an attempt to absolve itself of responsibility for violating international humanitarian law. The ministry stressed that they were not surprised by the "professional blindness" of employees of international organizations, and added that they would never agree with what was happening — Russian diplomats would insist on the need to investigate the murder and bring all those responsible to justice.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
