The expert explained the reasons for the decrease in consumption in 2026
The decline in consumer confidence is due to the accumulated effect of uncertainty and pressure on real incomes, which gradually changes the behavior of the population and restrains demand for large purchases. Anastasia Kudryavtseva, Adviser to the Chairman of the Board of JSC National Savings Bank, informed Izvestia about this on March 27.
The slowdown in consumer spending in early 2026 reflects the general trend in macroeconomics. According to Kudryavtseva, the decline in consumer confidence is not related to any one factor, but is the result of an accumulated effect.
"People are becoming more cautious about spending amid pressure on real incomes and general uncertainty. This is gradually changing behavior — large purchases are postponed, and everyday expenses are reviewed more carefully," the expert noted.
The key factor here, according to Kudryavtseva, is expectations. Even with stable employment, the population begins to take into account possible risks, such as rising prices or changes in credit conditions. As a result, demand is becoming more subdued, especially in the non-food and service segments. At the same time, the basic consumption remains, but it is the optional, "additional" expenses that begin to decrease in the first place. For the economy, this means uneven pressure on industries.
"In the short term, this is most strongly felt by retail and the service sector, especially those areas that are tied to emotional or impulse purchases. In the medium term, the effect may expand: businesses begin to plan development more cautiously, slow down investments, and take a more balanced approach to hiring employees. This creates a more restrained business cycle," the expert added.
The expert also noted that the change in consumer sentiment directly affects inflation, the labor market and investments. Weaker demand can partially restrain price growth, reducing inflationary pressures. At the same time, business caution may affect the pace of job creation and income levels.
Anna Fedyunina, Deputy Director of the HSE Structural Policy Research Center, told Izvestia on February 25 that the Russian economy had managed to achieve impressive results despite turbulent changes and external pressure. She stressed that the Russian economy has achieved macroeconomic stability after a decrease in inflation. According to her, the presented results reflect future steps, including resuming the investment cycle and stimulating sustainable economic growth.
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