- Статьи
- Economy
- Golden cutoff: The Ministry of Finance may return to buying foreign currency as early as April
Golden cutoff: The Ministry of Finance may return to buying foreign currency as early as April
The Ministry of Finance will return to the foreign exchange market: as early as April, the agency may resume operations under the budget rule, analysts interviewed by Izvestia believe. In March, they were put on pause amid a planned revision of the parameters, primarily the oil cut—off price. As a result, they decided not to touch it in 2026 and postponed the changes to 2027 in order not to undermine the budget and the market. So far, the ruble remains more sensitive to external factors, but with the return of interventions, its fluctuations may smooth out. How this will affect inflation and the treasury deficit is in the Izvestia article.
What will happen to the budget rule?
The Ministry of Finance is ready to review the budget rule from 2027, said Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev. According to him, the current cut—off price of oil - $59 per barrel in 2026 with a gradual decrease to $55 by 2030 - no longer corresponds to the long—term parameters of the financial plan. The agency believes that in the future, the treasury will have to balance based on the lower cost of oil, since the "equilibrium" price on the world market is likely to be lower than current benchmarks.
The budget rule is a mechanism that restricts the use of oil and gas revenues. The base price of oil (the "cut—off price") is included in the budget — revenues from the sale of raw materials within its limits go to current expenses, and excess profits go to reserves, primarily to the National Welfare Fund (NWF). If prices fall and there is not enough income, funds from the fund can be used to cover the deficit.
In 2026, the cut-off price is $59 per barrel of Urals. If this level is exceeded, the surplus is used to buy currency and gold, and at lower prices, assets are sold. In March, the Ministry of Finance temporarily suspended such operations in the domestic market amid discussions on new rule parameters.
The agency plans to submit a final decision before forming the budget for the new three-year period. The discussion started earlier than usual to make a more balanced decision. In February, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov also allowed for a tightening of the rule by lowering the cut—off price in order to save NWF funds and reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market.
The majority of experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that operations under the budget rule will resume in April. Mikhail Nikitin, Head of International Business and Finance Practice, Partner at 5D Consulting, notes: without this mechanism, the ruble exchange rate reacts more strongly to fluctuations in oil prices, which increases inflationary pressure.
Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, also talks about the possible return of the Ministry of Finance to the market in the first decade of April. According to her estimates, oil and gas revenues may grow by the end of the first quarter, and with an oil price above $59 and a stable ruble exchange rate, the agency will be able to resume purchases of foreign currency for the NWF.
Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, also admits such a scenario. He identifies three key factors that will push the Ministry of Finance to resume purchases: the dynamics of Urals oil prices, the volume of the liquid part of the NWF (funds available for use) and the parameters of the future three-year budget.
At the same time, Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, does not rule out that the decision on the cut-off price may be postponed until June. In this case, active operations will begin later, after the March pause is compensated.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Finance.
Why did the authorities postpone the budget rule change?
The Ministry of Finance reasonably postponed the review of the cut-off price: the oil market is too volatile now, and a stable level has not yet been formed, said Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Presidential Academy. According to him, the pause in currency transactions was necessary precisely to develop new parameters, but there is no reason to delay it further.
The main factor is the escalation in the Middle East, which has reduced supply and driven up prices. Under these conditions, Russia has additional export opportunities and the risk of rapid depletion of reserves has decreased, the expert added.
Also, the postponement of changes to 2027 is due to the fact that the adjustment now may affect the execution of the already adopted budget, Vladimir Eremkin said.
At the same time, the situation changed quickly: if Urals was worth about $56 in February, below the $59 cutoff, and oil and gas revenues were falling, then prices rose sharply by the end of March. As a result, the need for an urgent tightening of the rule has disappeared, said Mikhail Nikitin from 5D Consulting.
How will the purchase of foreign currency affect the ruble
The resumption of foreign exchange transactions may initially put moderate pressure on the ruble, Vladimir Eremkin believes. However, with the growth of oil revenues, this impact will be limited, the expert added. At the same time, a sharp weakening is not expected — it will be smoothed out by export earnings. On March 24, Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov announced that the decree on mandatory repatriation and sale of foreign exchange earnings, which expires in May, is likely to be extended again.
At the same time, the impact of the exchange rate on inflation will be limited. A weaker ruble can indeed accelerate price growth through imports, but fiscal policy plays a key role, Vladimir Eremkin emphasized. If costs remain high, inflation will accelerate, and if they can be contained, on the contrary, it will slow down.
From the treasury's point of view, the resumption of operations means a return to the usual mechanism of the budget rule: with high oil prices, excess revenues will again be sent to the NWF. This increases the stability of the system and does not create additional pressure on the economy, he added.
However, prolonging the pause is risky. The longer the Ministry of Finance does not enter the market, the more the volume of deferred transactions accumulates, which can then affect the exchange rate at once, the expert noted.
Against this background, it is also dangerous to change the parameters "on the move", Igor Rastorguev emphasized: the budget has already been adjusted based on the price of about $59 per barrel. Therefore, the rise in oil prices against the background of the conflict in the Middle East actually gave a pause — the pressure on the budget temporarily decreased.
At the same time, the risks of cost cuts are decreasing, and forecasts for the ruble are becoming more stable, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. According to her, at the beginning of the year, due to low oil prices and a strong exchange rate, revenues sank, and the deficit grew rapidly.
Now the situation is changing: the growth of quotations is able to partially compensate for the loss of income. According to the expert, each additional $1 per barrel can bring about 150 billion rubles to the budget. In the end, a lot will depend on how long the high prices last.
At the same time, sharp movements are not expected in the foreign exchange market. According to Natalia Milchakova, in April the dollar will be in the range of 80-85 rubles, the euro — 93-98. This means that there will be no additional pressure on inflation from the exchange rate yet. On March 26, at the exchange rate of the Central Bank, the "American" was worth 80.7 rubles, and the euro was 93.8 rubles.
How will the changes affect the budget
The new cut-off price is being discussed in the range of $45-55 per barrel against the current $59, said Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets. According to him, the key issue is the timing: if oil stays at the level of $90-100 for at least six months, the budget may receive an additional 2-3.5 trillion rubles. In this case, too strict parameters for 2027 will look redundant. If prices return to lower levels, a pause in the decision may lead to losses — you will have to adjust the rule in an emergency mode.
Reducing the cut-off price is generally justified, but it is important to do this in a stable situation, Mikhail Nikitin believes. With the current volume of the liquid part of the NWF of about 4 trillion rubles, the margin of safety is limited, so a stricter rule is needed to restore reserves in "good" periods.
At the same time, the risks to the budget remain. Olga Belenkaya from Finam notes that the economy may grow by only 0.7–1% instead of the expected 1.3%. This will restrain the growth of non-oil and gas revenues, while expenses may accelerate faster than planned. In this case, a structural deficit is possible, which will have to be covered by borrowing or finding additional income.
At the same time, this situation creates space for a more lenient monetary policy. According to the expert, the Bank of Russia is theoretically capable of reducing the rate twice by 0.5 percentage points in the second quarter, and by the end of the year it may reach about 12%.
In the long term, stricter budget rules mean less dependence on oil and stricter cost control, Vladimir Eremkin added. This will help to contain inflation, but at the same time it can limit the growth rate of the economy in the future.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
