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Exchange rate and events: expensive oil and weak ruble will support shares of Russian exporters
The shares of Russian exporting companies will increase in price due to the weakening of the ruble and the rising price of oil, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Among the growth leaders will be the securities of Gazprom, Lukoil, Novatek, Rosneft, Rusal, Sovcomflot, Tatneft and PhosAgro. Since the beginning of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, they have already risen to 23%. But after the situation in the war zone stabilizes, raw materials will fall back below $100 and pull securities with them. When this can happen and what to expect on the stock market is in the Izvestia article.
What will happen to the market due to a new round of conflict in Iran
Shares of domestic export-oriented companies will rise due to the weakening of the national currency and the rise in oil prices. Denis Ikonnikov, senior equity analyst at Sberinvestments, believes that the most positive impact of the high ruble exchange rate may be on the securities of Lukoil, Novatek, NLMK, Rosneft, Rusal, Sovcomflot, Tatneft and PhosAgro. In addition, analysts interviewed by Izvestia believe that Gazprom will be a plus.
Since the beginning of a new round of military conflict in the Middle East on February 28, Brent crude oil has gained more than 35% — at auction on March 25, it cost $ 98 per barrel. At the moment, the quotes were rising above $110 per barrel. At the same time, the Urals price increased by more than 60% to $96.5. Moreover, at the auction on March 20, it reached $ 106 per barrel.
Against the background of serious geopolitical instability, the quotes are strongly influenced by the statements of the authorities. On March 23, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington and Tehran had held productive talks on the cessation of hostilities over the past two days. After such news, Brent crude futures fell from $108 to $96 per barrel. However, Iran denied this, and the next day the quotes recovered above $ 103.
On March 25, the American leader announced that Vice President Jay Dee Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff were participating in negotiations with Iran. According to Trump, America has already won in this conflict. Oil reacted again, falling in price by about 4% overnight. However, on the same day, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic, Ismail Bagai, stressed that Tehran was not negotiating with Washington and had not conducted them since the start of the military operation.
The ruble has weakened since February 28. The main reason was the suspension of the sale of foreign currency earnings under the budget rule, as well as discussions on reducing the cut-off price of Russian oil.
The authorities use the cut-off price when replenishing the National Welfare Fund (NWF). When the price of export oil exceeds the threshold (in 2026 it is $ 59 per barrel), the surplus is sent to the National Welfare Fund — they are used to purchase foreign currency (mainly yuan), creating a "safety cushion". If the price of Russian Urals oil falls below the cut-off price, then funds from the "pot" go in the opposite direction: the currency is sold to finance budget expenditures.
Against this background, over the past almost four weeks, the exchange rate has adjusted by 5% — on March 25, according to the Central Bank, the dollar was already worth 80.96 rubles, the euro - 91.29, the yuan — 11.72. At the same time, on the over-the-counter market on March 19, the Russian national currency rose above 99.5 per euro and 87 per dollar.
Due to the rise in oil prices and the weakening of the ruble, the shares of many exporting companies have increased significantly on the Moscow Stock Exchange. For example, the value of Rosneft's securities increased by 23% (to almost 491 rubles), Tatneft — by 19% (to 650.5), Novatek — by 14% (to 1368), Sovcomflot — by 11.7% (to 85.8). According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, against the background of the continuation of the conflict, the shares will continue to grow — they may jump by another 15%.
Which companies will benefit from what is happening in the Middle East
— The oil and gas sector benefits not only from the weakening of the ruble, but also from the situation in the Middle East. An increase in oil prices above $100 per barrel of Brent combined with a weak ruble should lead to an improvement in the financial results of Russian oil and gas companies, which means potentially higher share prices and higher dividends. Moreover, the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the potential for growth," said Denis Ikonnikov.
According to the analyst, such dynamics should be expected from Rosneft and Lukoil. Both companies have the largest share of raw material exports from mining in the sector — 52% and 42%, respectively. Novatek's contracts as a natural gas producer are tied to Brent prices for three quarters, and the remainder to spot gas prices in Europe. They, in turn, have jumped by 50% since the beginning of March, which, combined with a weak ruble, should support the company's financial results, he added.
Gazprom's business benefits no less from rising prices for raw materials, as well as from the demand of a number of countries for new volumes of gas, says Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam. Sovcomflot will also benefit from the weakening of the ruble, as the company's revenues are generated in foreign currency. In addition, the escalation in the Middle East has led to an increase in spot freight rates in the first quarter of 2026 by more than twice in annual terms. Against this background, Sovcomflot's financial performance may improve in 2026, Denis Ikonnikov noted. Izvestia sent inquiries to the press services of the enterprises.
The rise in prices for gas, oil and aluminum is the effect of the so—called "black swan" that has arrived, said Ivan Efanov, an analyst at Cifra Broker. Those who already have this asset are lucky, but now it is very risky to "enter" it. According to the expert, this is not a fundamental increase — the further development of the situation will depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict, as well as on whether the Strait of Hormuz will be completely blocked or not.
When will the conflict over Iran end?
The situation in the Middle East has remained tense for almost four weeks now. At the same time, it is unclear when the conflict will de-escalate. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the fighting may last up to two months.
The Chairman of the Parliament of the Islamic Republic, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on March 17 that the Strait of Hormuz "can no longer be the same as before." Later, on March 22, it became known that Tehran had introduced a new approach to controlling the artery, starting to charge up to $2 million from passing ships. According to Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of Iran's parliamentary commission on National Security and Foreign Policy, the measure has already been implemented and reflects the "new sovereign regime" in the strait.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the US military presence in the Middle East is expected to increase on March 27: over 2,000 marines and three warships are expected to arrive. Such a step indicates Washington's readiness for escalation and reduces the likelihood of a quick settlement, said Valeria Popova, senior analyst at the investment company Rikom-Trust.
However, if it is still possible to resolve the conflict promptly, then supplies through the artery can gradually recover in three to five weeks, Valeria Popova believes. The opening of the strait will lead to a correction in oil prices below $100 per barrel. But a quick return to the levels that were before the end of February (about $70 per barrel) is not worth waiting for, says Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company. In addition to logistics, there are factors of destroyed infrastructure, halted production and the resumption of oil purchases in reserves spent during the conflict, he added.
At the same time, the military operation in the Middle East negatively affects the allies of the G7 countries, as well as Asia, said Denis Astafyev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. For example, China, which receives up to 45-50% of oil imports through the strait, lowered its GDP growth target for 2026 to 4.5%, which is one of the lows in a decade.
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