The supply of new buildings at the excavation site in Moscow fell by 27%

In March 2026, the volume of supply at the initial stage of construction in the old borders of Moscow decreased by 27% compared to the same period last year, analysts at Metrium, who conducted a study of the real estate market, told Izvestia on March 25.

According to their estimates, the most pronounced drop was recorded in the high-budget segment (-83%), while in the business class, the exposition at the early stage of construction decreased by only 5%.

According to calculations by analysts of the Metrium company, in March, 7.5 thousand apartments and apartments were sold in the capital at the initial stage of construction (excavation). This is 27% less than in March last year, when there were 10.3 thousand lots at this stage. A reduction in supply at an early stage of readiness is observed in all market segments, but the dynamics vary greatly depending on the housing class.

In the mass segment, the number of new buildings in the excavation decreased by 35% over the year: from 3.8 thousand to 2.5 thousand lots. The drop also affected other stages of construction: the volume of supply at the finishing stage decreased by 60%, installation of lower floors — by 55%, upper floors — by 37%. Finished new buildings in this segment were also put up for sale less frequently — minus 11%. In business class, the dynamics turned out to be more restrained. The number of lots at the initial stage decreased by only 5% (from 4.1 thousand to 3.9 thousand). At the same time, at the stage of installation of the upper floors, the supply even increased by 5%, while at the installation of the lower floors it remained at the level of last year. At the same time, the volume of the exhibition in buildings at the finishing stage decreased by 13%, in rented houses — by 4%.

"The dynamics of supply in business class reflects the general caution of developers: in 2025, 36% fewer new projects entered the market than a year earlier. Therefore, the current volume of the exhibition at the initial stages is largely the result of the inertia of projects launched over the past year in conditions of expensive project financing," says the head of the STONE analytical center (developer of the STONE Rise and STONE Grain residential complexes at the initial stage of construction) Marina Gritskova.

The premium segment showed the most contrasting picture. On the one hand, the number of apartments in the excavation has fallen by 40% (from 1.6 thousand to 1 thousand). On the other hand, steady growth was noted at all other stages of construction: the supply in finished houses increased by 23%, by 32% at the finishing stage, by 7% on the upper floors and by 33% on the lower floors. This indicates a shift in supply towards more ready-made housing in the elite and deluxe segment.

"Buyers of premium housing today prefer a finished product, but the early stages remain attractive to those who look to the future. By purchasing an apartment at the start, in fact, you are investing in the most technologically advanced project with the most up-to-date architecture and fresh planning solutions. By the time the house is commissioned, this facility will be noticeably more liquid and more modern than those complexes that are currently being sold at a high stage of readiness," explains Yana Sosoreva, Director of Strategic Development at Grad Development.

In the high-budget segment, the number of lots in the excavation decreased by 83% over the year: from 778 units to 133 lots. At the same time, the supply at the finishing stage increased by 2%, and in finished houses — by 122%. During the installation phase of the lower floors, the volume of the exhibition increased by 45%, and on the upper floors — by 40%.

"The reduction in supply in the excavation is a natural result of the restructuring of the market against the background of high mortgage rates and the completion of massive preferential programs. Developers try to bring out new buildings only with guaranteed demand. In turn, buyers use different strategies: some customers choose the early stages of implementation and are willing to wait due to the lower price per square meter. But there are also those who prefer a high degree of readiness and an early move," sums up Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium.

Housing surge: weak demand forced developers to make more discounts

But such lots may turn out to be substandard.

On March 17, experts from the Metrium company estimated that by the end of February, the weighted average price per square meter in the primary premium housing market in Moscow for the first time exceeded 900 thousand rubles. There is also a significant increase in consumer activity in the premium new building market. In February 2026, clients registered 346 equity participation agreements. In turn, in February 2023, buyers signed 130 equity participation agreements (DDU) in the capital's premium-class new buildings. That is, over the past month, 2.6 times (166%) more transactions were recorded than in the same period three years ago.

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