The expert predicted the ruble exchange rate after the Central Bank's decision to reduce the rate to 15%

By the end of the month, it is possible to expand the ranges of fluctuations in the foreign exchange market after the decision of the Central Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate to 15%. The dollar exchange rate can be in the range of 79-89 rubles, the euro — 93-100 rubles, the yuan — 11.4–12.8 rubles. Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's Customer Support and Sales department, told Izvestia on March 20.

"The decision of the Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate by 50 bps to 15% was an expected step and has already been incorporated into the exchange rates. However, the very fact of monetary policy easing is important not so much as a one-time measure, but as a signal about the future course of the regulator and the state of the economy," the expert noted.

While the Central Bank is hitting 12: in 2026, the key rate will remain in double digits

It will not be reduced quickly, even though inflation is close to the target — is it worth carrying money for a deposit or buying an apartment

According to the expert, the decision of the Bank of Russia reflects the assessment of the current macroeconomic situation. The regulator is detecting signs of the economy entering a balanced growth trajectory, which indicates a reduction in the risks of overheating or a sharp slowdown. In such circumstances, there is room for a cautious reduction in the cost of borrowing.

At the same time, Schneiderman stressed, it is too early to talk about a transition to aggressive policy easing. External factors remain unstable, and the population's inflation expectations remain high. This limits the possibilities for a more substantial reduction in the rate. According to him, further smooth mitigation is possible in the second quarter while maintaining current trends.

The expert added that the rates on loans and deposits will change slightly. Banks have already partially incorporated the expected solution into their products, and public interest in savings remains high, while lending activity remains subdued.

On the same day, it became known that the Central Bank lowered the key rate to 15% per annum. According to the regulator's forecast, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will decrease to 4.5-5.5% in 2026, and stable inflation will be near 4% in the second half of 2026. In 2027 and beyond, she will be on target.

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