Developers estimated the impact of reducing the key interest rate to 15% on the real estate market

Reducing the key interest rate to 15% will have virtually no effect on the real estate market. This was announced to Izvestia on March 20 by Daria Bokovnya, Deputy Commercial Director of SK10.

"The rates on current mortgage programs will decrease, but this will not dramatically affect the market. Preferential mortgages are still the engine of sales. And changes in the key rate do not affect it so much. Price growth is expected to accelerate, especially in the secondary market, which is more dependent on the key rate," she said.

According to Sergey Goncharov, General Director of Razvitie Group, the Bank of Russia's decision on the key interest rate fits into the current logic of cautious monetary easing: the regulator continues to balance between curbing inflation and stimulating economic activity.

"For the real estate market, the downward trend in the key interest rate is a positive signal that stimulates the recovery of pent-up demand. Also, against this background, real estate is gradually strengthening its position as a way to save capital, especially given the potential reduction in deposit yields," he said.

While the Central Bank is hitting 12: in 2026, the key rate will remain in double digits

It will not be reduced quickly, even though inflation is close to the target — is it worth carrying money for a deposit or buying an apartment

In addition, Svetlana Pinigina, founder of Pinigina Consulting, added that reducing the "key" will help strengthen demand, which is narrowing due to restrictions on preferential mortgages. This will attract a stream of buyers who do not belong to preferential categories, revitalize the mortgage market, create an alternative to government support programs and ensure sustainable demand without excessive burden on the budget.

However, for a noticeable revival of the market, the key rate should be at the level of 12% or lower, said Olga Nart, Deputy General Director of Luchi Group.

"In this range, credit conditions become more comfortable, which stimulates demand from buyers and contributes to a more active launch of new projects by developers," the expert said.

Pavel Galkin, Chairman of the Board of the Parity Development Group of companies, also said that market participants had hoped for a decrease, but at the same time, immediate changes and a drop in the cost per square meter in residential projects should not be expected now.

On the same day, it became known that the Central Bank lowered the key rate to 15% per annum. According to the regulator's forecast, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will decrease to 4.5-5.5% in 2026, and stable inflation will be near 4% in the second half of 2026. In 2027 and beyond, she will be on target.

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