Dear and nervous: the world is on the verge of gas shock
In the Middle East, key energy infrastructure has been hit. Israel attacked the South Pars field in Iran. In response, Tehran attacked facilities in Saudi Arabia and the world's largest LNG plant in Qatar. The damage is assessed as serious — gas prices in the EU have already jumped by 35%. The possible consequences for the global market and the risks of a large—scale crisis are described in the Izvestia article.
LNG under fire
The region's key gas infrastructure has been hit in the Middle East. Israel attacked the South Pars field, Iran's main source of domestic gas supply. In response, Tehran hit the Ras Laffan industrial hub in Qatar, a facility that provides about 20% of the global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Businesses in Abu Dhabi were also affected as debris from an intercepted missile strike fell on them.
The political reaction to the incident turned out to be mixed. Israel's main ally, the United States, has said it knew nothing about the impending attack. US President Donald Trump called on the parties to reduce tensions and abandon plans to destroy energy infrastructure facilities. However, his words did not lead to noticeable results. On the afternoon of March 19, the military of the Islamic Republic shelled oil refineries in Haifa and Rishon Lezion in Israel.
South Pars field in Iran
The consequences of the past attacks are already being felt. Gas prices in Europe have increased by 35% to $891 per 1,000 cubic meters, and there are no prerequisites for a quick normalization of the situation. Back in early March, a number of manufacturers in the Middle East reported the suspension of certain facilities, including QatarEnergy and Saudi Aramco. The work of the largest natural gas processing complex in Abu Dhabi, Habshan, is also on pause. New damage to the infrastructure will only prolong the restoration of supplies.
It will be extremely difficult to quickly replace the falling volumes, Evgeny Shatov, partner at Capital Lab, notes in an interview with Izvestia. According to previous forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global LNG supply was expected to grow by about 7% in 2026, or more than 40 billion cubic meters, mainly due to the launch of new projects in North America and partly in Qatar.
QatarEnergy Gas storage facility in Ras Laffan
— The problem is that emergency compensation volumes and the introduction of new capacities are different processes. Terminals do not start up instantly, and free contracted shipments on the market are limited. Under these conditions, the United States is becoming the main natural compensator for falling supplies. However, they are not able to quickly replace the Qatari gas in full, especially if we are talking about damage to the infrastructure associated with about a fifth of the global LNG market, the expert explains.
The situation is also complicated by the lack of full-fledged strategic reserves of LNG: unlike oil, there are practically no mechanisms for large-scale insurance reserves of this fuel at the global level. This is due to high costs and technological limitations.
The weak link
The suspension of exports from the region will primarily affect the EU countries and major Asian importers, Evgeny Shatov said in an interview with Izvestia. After the restructuring of the energy balance in recent years, the role of LNG in ensuring demand has increased significantly, and Qatar remains one of the key suppliers on the global market.
— The situation is particularly sensitive for the EU, as the level of occupancy of underground storage facilities has significantly decreased after the winter. Europe will not only have to go through the rest of the season in conditions of high volatility, but also begin summer gas injection at higher prices. For energy—intensive industries such as chemicals, fertilizers, glass, and parts of metallurgy, this means additional pressure on margins and competitiveness," the expert explains.
According to him, in the short term, the market is likely to remain in a mode of sharp volatility. If the disruptions in the Qatari infrastructure last for several weeks, then the countries will start fighting for free parties. For Europe, this means a jump in spot prices, for Asia, increased competition for the same volumes, and for less solvent importers, the risk of actual displacement from the market.
— In the medium term, the situation will depend on two factors: the speed of Qatar's export capacity recovery and whether the conflict will escalate into a broader blow to energy infrastructure and shipping in the Persian Gulf. The base case scenario is expensive and extremely nervous gas in the coming weeks and months. The stressful one is the formation of a global LNG shortage by the end of the year," Shatov predicts.
It is noteworthy that on March 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia's readiness to resume long-term cooperation with the EU on energy resources. And on March 18, the same day that the South Pars was attacked, a ban on the import of Russian LNG and pipeline gas with a transition period until the end of 2027 came into force in the European Union.
—The irony is that Russia remains one of the few suppliers capable of guaranteeing physical volumes along a safe route," Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, pointed out. — For example, Yamal LNG produces 20-22 million tons per year. The Europeans will have to choose: either admit that their anti-Russian energy policy has hit the ceiling, or enter the winter of 2026/27 with storage facilities that will not physically have time to fill.
The darkest predictions
The possibility of an apocalyptic scenario — the large—scale destruction of infrastructure throughout the Middle East - has not yet been realized, but it no longer looks fantastic, Igor Rastorguev points out. If the conflict drags on for months and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the global economy will receive a price shock comparable to 1973.
— Everyone will suffer. Asia is experiencing a shortage of physical volumes (Pakistan and Bangladesh will be the first to be in a critical situation), Europe is experiencing a price blow to industry and the population, and developing countries are experiencing a food crisis, as Qatari gas also feeds fertilizer production. In this scenario, Russia is an exporter whose routes do not depend on Hormuz, whose storage facilities are full, and whose consumer market is protected by regulated prices and, paradoxically, sanctions.
With a negative development, there is a risk of a full-fledged global energy crisis, Evgeny Shatov agrees. It will focus on the rise in prices, the struggle for parties, the displacement of weak buyers, a new round of inflation and increased pressure on central banks.
— Such a scenario will hit global growth, because expensive gas automatically means expensive electricity, expensive fertilizers, expensive chemicals and weakened consumer demand. At the same time, gas exporters outside the conflict zone will benefit. Sellers of alternative fuels, including coal and oil, will also benefit partially. But this is a "bad" gain: it is accompanied by reduced demand and an increase in systemic risks, the analyst emphasizes.
According to him, before the strikes, the market assumed that 2026 would be a year of relief: more LNG, lower balance sheet tensions, and better conditions for Europe and Asia. Now this logic is breaking down.
"If the damage in Qatar turns out to be really serious and protracted, then the world may not get a repeat of 2022, but a more global version of the gas shock with simultaneous impact on Europe, Asia and global industry," the Izvestia interlocutor summed up.
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