The economist explained the growth of the dollar with high oil

The weakening of the ruble in March is taking place against the background of high oil prices, which looks atypical for the foreign exchange market. Taisiya Veprentseva, an economist and founder of the Delomant Group consulting company, told Izvestia on March 19.

"The situation on the foreign exchange market in March 2026 looks paradoxical. Oil is trading at levels comfortable for the budget, but the ruble is losing ground: on March 19, the dollar exchange rate on the stock exchange rose above 87 rubles. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on this date was 83.1 rubles per dollar, but market quotes reflect different expectations of market participants," the expert said.

Veprentseva called the imbalance of currency flows the key reason for the growth of the dollar. The volume of sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters in February amounted to about $3.55 billion, while import needs reach $30-32 billion. This creates steady pressure on the ruble, as demand for the currency significantly exceeds supply.

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Expectations of monetary policy easing remain an additional factor. Even a moderate reduction in the key rate reduces the attractiveness of ruble assets and stimulates the flow of funds into the currency. With more active mitigation, this effect may increase.

The expert stressed that the usual dependence between oil and the ruble has weakened in the current conditions. High commodity prices increase export earnings, but with low conversion into rubles, their impact on the exchange rate is limited. Additionally, the situation is being changed by the growth of settlements in non-dollar currencies.

According to Veprentseva's forecast, the ruble may continue to weaken by the summer. Fixing the exchange rate above 85 rubles per dollar looks like a likely scenario, and in the expert environment, movement in the range of 95-100 rubles is allowed, which partially corresponds to the interests of the budget.

According to her assessment, an increase in sales of foreign currency earnings by exporters and a decrease in imports can support the ruble. In general, what is happening reflects the structural changes in the foreign exchange market, where not only commodity prices are beginning to play a key role, but also the balance of foreign trade and the policy of the regulator.

On the same day, it became known that the dollar exchange rate on the Russian interbank market rose above 87 rubles for the first time since April 10, 2024, according to trading data. At the same time, the European currency is also getting more expensive: the euro exchange rate increased by 1.31%, reaching the level of 97.29 rubles.

Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's Customer Support and Sales department, said on March 16 that Brent oil prices would fluctuate in the range of $84–$110 per barrel this week. According to him, oil prices are maintaining a steady upward trend under the influence of events in the Middle East.

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