Trump is putting pressure on Cuba amid the protracted war with Iran. What you need to know

Against the background of the ongoing conflict with Iran, US President Donald Trump and his administration continue to make aggressive attacks against Cuba, moving from threats to the assertion that Havana, which has been left without fuel supplies, wants to conclude a deal. The United States sees a change of power in Cuba as a way to strengthen its influence in the Western Hemisphere, but this could lead to instability in the region and additional costs for the United States itself. What you need to know about the situation in the Caribbean region is in the Izvestia article.

Why should the United States change power in Cuba

• If we put aside the ideological confrontation and the presence of a country with strong Russian influence 150 km from the borders, then the economy comes to the fore. Currently, the United States is incurring significant costs both because of the situation on the island and because of its own sanctions. The difficult economic situation in the Caribbean country, new restrictions against it and, as a result, the constant influx of migrants is a significant burden on the American budget: the costs of border control, migrant accommodation, courts and social support. Cuba's population is about 11 million people, and even if 5% decides to emigrate during the crisis, there are potentially hundreds of thousands of new migrants.

• Despite the sanctions, the United States exports about $500 million worth of goods to Cuba annually, mainly food and agricultural products, while imports from Cuba remain minimal — about $5 million. This already gives the United States a trade surplus of more than $500 million per year. At the same time, Cuba's GDP is estimated at about $100 billion, and tourism revenues reached about $3 billion annually before the pandemic.

• If Cuba's economy becomes more open, American companies can gain access to a market with tens of billions of dollars in turnover in the fields of tourism, construction and trade. In this calculation, the United States sees a change of power as an opportunity to increase its economic presence (we discussed how the United States is changing its dominance model here).

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• The administration of US President Donald Trump is actively promoting a policy of strengthening US influence in Latin America and the Caribbean, using economic, political and military pressure. This is called the modern version of the Monroe doctrine, the "Donro Doctrine" (a mix of the names Donald + Monroe).

• Trump's interest in Cuba can be explained by the fact that the United States is having difficulties in the Middle East, and he sees the possibility of a quick victory. Cuba looks like an option where you can try to achieve results using soft methods: either negotiate with the current leadership, or persuade the president to resign in exchange for lifting sanctions, while keeping the Communist Party in power and not touching the Castro family. If a less rigid leader comes to power, the possibility of reforms on the island and its opening to investment will increase. However, so far this option is not seen as realistic: the Cuban authorities are firmly sticking to their line and do not intend to make concessions.

• Within the United States, the resolution of the Cuban issue is important before the congressional elections: many Cuban-Americans who voted for Trump are beginning to become disillusioned with him because of immigration policies and rising prices. If the United States can ease its own sanctions, the Cuban diaspora will return its sympathies to the Republicans.

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Will the Cube withstand the pressure

Cuba is an inconvenient neighbor for Washington, as it has been pursuing an independent policy since 1959 and demonstrating a desire for regional integration. US sanctions are exacerbating the already severe crisis in Cuba, directly affecting people's daily lives (we wrote more about the island's problems here). In particular, there is an acute shortage of fuel in the country, which can cause electricity to be unavailable for 20 hours a day or more, transport and garbage collection are disrupted, and water supply is disrupted. The possibilities for repairing the energy infrastructure are also limited.

• In general, over the decades of restrictions, the country's economy has lost more than $150 billion, and the new measures are only exacerbating the situation. The United States uses sanctions as a way to weaken the influence of other countries, primarily China and partly Russia, in the region. Such a policy worsens the living conditions of the population and aggravates the crisis.

• Despite the pressure, the Cuban system of government remains stable, and even serious crises in the past have not led to its downfall. Key resources are controlled by the state and military structures. This makes it possible to manage economic flows even in times of crisis. At the same time, the government allows limited reforms to attract foreign currency, but does not lose control. This reduces the risk of rapid system collapse even under strong external pressure.

Support in the face of sanctions

• In response to U.S. pressure, Cuba is strengthening relations with its key partners. In particular, China is helping the country to develop solar energy against the background of the fuel crisis caused by the cessation of oil supplies due to the United States.

• In recent years, Beijing has increased the supply of equipment and financing to Havana. Chinese exports of solar panels to Cuba increased from $5 million in 2023 to $117 million in 2025. According to the plan, more than 92 solar parks should be built on the island by 2028.

• Overall, China remains one of the largest trading partners, with bilateral trade exceeding $1 billion per year. China views Cuba as part of a long-term strategy to expand its influence in the Western Hemisphere. For Beijing, this is an opportunity to gain a foothold in a region that is traditionally considered a zone of U.S. influence.

• Russia is also actively cooperating with Cuba. Russian business plans to invest more than $1 billion in the Cuban economy as part of the cooperation program until 2030. For Moscow, Cuba remains an important partner from a political point of view, allowing it to maintain a presence in the Western Hemisphere.

• Mexico and Venezuela play an important role among regional partners, providing fuel supplies that directly affect the island's energy stability. However, under pressure from the United States, both countries had to suspend supplies, retaining only humanitarian aid.

What does this mean?

• There are several scenarios for the development of events, and they depend on how strong the US pressure will be. The mildest option is a gradual transformation of the system without a sudden breakdown. Thus, the government may partially change, but the key elites will retain influence, and the economy will begin to open up to external investment. This scenario resembles the period after 2014, when the rapprochement with the United States began: then the flow of tourists increased to about 4 million people per year, and transfers from abroad reached $6 billion annually. If this model is repeated, Cuba's economy can gradually grow, and the United States will gain access to a profitable market.

• A sharp political crisis during a change of government, in particular, in the event of a repeat of the Venezuelan scenario, will lead to destabilization in the country and increased migration. In this case, hundreds of thousands of people can leave Cuba in a short time. For the United States, this means increased border costs and the need to respond to the humanitarian crisis.

• The risk of increased criminal activity in the region is also increasing. Moreover, the migration crisis will affect other Latin American countries such as Brazil, Mexico and Nicaragua. Latin America's economy is growing slowly, averaging about 2-2.5% per year, so countries in the region do not have many resources to respond to crises. Cuba is an important part of the regional economic system, primarily with tourism and maritime logistics. In the event of a crisis, trade routes will become more complicated and the investment attractiveness of the region will decrease.

• It is also possible to maintain the current government with increased sanctions. Inflation will remain in double digits, and living standards will deteriorate. Emigration will continue, but without a sharp surge. In this scenario, the United States does not achieve a rapid change of power, but gradually increases pressure. This is one of the most likely scenarios, since it does not require Washington to take drastic actions, but at the same time retains an impact on the situation in the long term.

• In practice, the United States could cooperate with the current leadership of Cuba: Havana is ready to cooperate and even make economic concessions. Therefore, a change of power is more an emotional or political desire than a real necessity.

• American politics is unstable and chaotic, which is why long-term plans like consistent pressure on Cuba are often thwarted. Historically, Cuba has been "saved" more than once simply because the United States was distracted by other crises.

When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions and talked with:

● political scientist Yuri Svetov;

● Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist;

● The American political scientist Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak

● American political scientist Malek Dudakov.