The expert called the war in the Middle East a blow to the global economy.

The war in the Middle East has become a serious blow to the global economy. Atif Kubursi, Professor of Economics at McMaster University, expressed this opinion to Izvestia on March 18.

According to the expert, this was influenced by the import tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump and the special operation of the United States and Israel on Iran, which disrupted oil supplies through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. For example, Asian economies depend on this oil.

"About 85% of the oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Japan, India and China. <...> The problem is that the demand for oil, according to economists, is price inelastic: This means that consumers do not respond well to rising prices because they cannot find a replacement. People are simply unable to find an alternative to aviation fuel, fertilizers, and transport fuel," Kubursi said.

The problems will affect the countries of Western Asia and the Persian Gulf, as well as European powers, the expert added. Speaking about Russia, he noted that the country as an oil exporter can even improve its position, but this is only possible if the war is short-term.

In his opinion, in order to create a balance of supply and demand with a shortage, the price of oil should rise up to $ 200 per barrel.

"Every $10 increase in oil prices increases global inflation by half a percent. This means that if the price rises by $100, inflation can rise by at least five percentage points. This will create serious problems, as it will fall on top of the already existing inflation," Kubursi stressed.

He also pointed out the possibility of currency depreciation, which would lead to an increase in the cost of imports and higher living costs. Subsequently, everything that happens can lead to stagflation (simultaneous economic recession and inflation).

The stage of non-acceptance: The United States and Israel cannot decide on the outcome of the war in Iran

Washington is ready to complete the operation — information about contacts with Tehran has appeared in the media

On March 16, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called on the country's citizens to save fuel due to the conflict in Iran. Ahmed explained that the economy regime in Ethiopia will remain in place until the problem with energy supplies is resolved. According to him, priority in fuel consumption should be given to "basic needs."

A day earlier, Trump appealed to countries dependent on oil supplied through the Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran, to ensure the safety of this transport route. He then threatened NATO with a "bad future" if it refused to help unblock the water area.

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