The talks about Poland's withdrawal from the European Union are groundless. And here's why

The European SAFE program, aimed at rearmament of the union's members, caused fierce controversy in Poland and once again raised the issue of the country's withdrawal from the European Union. Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a law allowing the country to take out a European loan, to which Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the threat of the country's withdrawal from the EU and promised to ensure that the country receives a loan bypassing the president's decision. Why it is unprofitable for Poland to leave the European Union and why this topic was returned to the agenda is in the Izvestia article.

Poland benefits from the EU

• Poland has significantly strengthened its own economy, thanks to EU subsidies. During the 19 years of its official membership in the EU (from 2004 to 2023), the country received more than €235 billion from the union budget under various programs. The largest volume of investments came from the "Policy of Cohesion" program (Polityki Spójności), designed to reduce the gap in living standards between EU countries — €153 billion. Over the same years, Poland has transferred only €78 billion to the general budget of the EU countries.

Warsaw depends on Europe's common market, as about 80% of exports go to EU countries. Poland also benefits from taxes on personal income, which are paid by citizens of the country who work abroad and receive higher salaries. The key infrastructure of the country, including highways and railways, was actually rebuilt with funds from the European Union funds.

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• Even as an EU member, Poland pursues an independent policy that may run counter to the interests and values of the European Union. So, in 2020, Warsaw maintained a ban on abortions without medical indications, despite the protests of Brussels. There are also restrictions on the activities of the LGBT movement in Poland (recognized as extremist and banned in Russia).

Polexit is a blackmail of Brussels

• This is not the first time that the topic of Polexit (from the words Poland and Exit, Polexit) has been raised. The term appeared by analogy with Brexit, the UK's exit from the EU in 2020. Shortly after the UK's demarche, there was talk of a possible exit from the union in Poland, especially after Warsaw confirmed the supremacy of the country's constitution over the laws of the European Union in 2021, and Brussels responded by cutting Poland's funding. But regardless of which political forces Poland is led by, leaving the EU is out of the question for the country: the UK's experience has shown that nothing can compensate for open European borders and unhindered access to EU markets.

• The return to Polexit in Poland's political agenda is explained by the fact that the country intends to negotiate more favorable terms for itself, in particular, the preservation of the national currency. Since zlotys are issued domestically, it is easier for Warsaw to balance monetary policy in accordance with real conditions, while switching to the euro would mean a change in interest rates, which would lead to serious economic problems, as happened with Greece, where the introduction of the union currency led to an increase in budget deficits. In January, Poland stated that due to the economic growth in the country, switching to the euro would be unprofitable.

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• In addition, threats to leave the EU may be made in order to reduce EU pressure on the Polish authorities and win the sympathy of the population inside the country shortly before the parliamentary elections in October 2027. The EU insists that Poland must change the country's constitutional norms and subordinate them to the union legislation, as well as ensure the independence of the constitutional court.

• Poland's arbitrariness, although it causes discontent in the European Union, actually remains unpunished, because the EU has no real tools to influence the participating countries. Brussels can only use measures of economic coercion: to limit the allocation of funds to those participants whose policies run counter to the provisions of the union. Therefore, in recent years, Poland's EU funding has been significantly reduced. At the same time, Brussels has to reckon with Warsaw, since the country is one of the six largest EU economies and makes a serious contribution to the defense budget of the European Union and NATO.

Features of the EU defense loan

• The EU loan for rearmament, which led to the Polexit discussion, is in itself a controversial decision. Navrotsky said that the country will have to repay €43.7 billion of borrowed funds under the SAFE program over 45 years, and the overpayment will amount to about €41 billion. He not only vetoed a law allowing the country to obtain a loan, but also warned the government against attempts to increase Poland's external debt.

Supporters of the law claim that the loan will work for Poland's interests, as up to 80% of the funds will be spent on the Polish arms industry, including drone manufacturer WB Electronics. But skeptics point out that the main benefit from the program will be the German concern Rheinmetall AG and the German economy. For Poland, which previously purchased military aircraft and tanks from the United States and South Korea, reorientation to European suppliers may mean additional costs. Instead, the Polish SAFE 0% program is proposed, according to which the central bank can sell part of its gold reserves on the London Stock Exchange and use the funds received to purchase weapons.

• The corruption scandal involving the private defense company Polska Ammunition may be an argument in favor of rejecting the EU loan for rearmament. The company was supposed to receive €2 billion from a SAFE loan under a contract for the construction of an ammunition manufacturing plant. As it turned out, the president of the company and a former member of the Sejm from the Civic Platform, Pavel Poncilius, could actively use his connections in the government to obtain a contract, especially since he is a party member of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Deputy Minister of National Defense Cesare Tomczyk.

During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• political scientist Yuri Svetov;
• political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko.