The expert predicted a weakening of the ruble in the second half of March
At the beginning of the second half of March, further weakening of the national currency is predicted within the ranges: 77-84 rubles per dollar, 89.50-95 rubles per euro and 11.20–12 rubles per yuan. Spartak Sobolev, head of the Alfa-Forex Investment Strategy Research Department, told Izvestia about this on March 16.
On March 14, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the exchange rate of the American currency at 80.2 rubles, the European currency at 91.9 rubles, and the Chinese currency at 11.6 yuan. At the same time, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange, on March 13, the yuan is trading at 11.6 rubles.
"The main factors of pressure on the ruble are expectations of a reduction in the key rate of the Bank of Russia on March 20 (market consensus allows for a reduction of 50 bps to 15%), as well as a possible change in the budget rule. The beginning of the tax period in the second half of March may be factors of support. Oil prices in the world remain high, but for their positive impact on the Russian currency, direct sales of export earnings are necessary," the expert concluded.
On February 28, Kaplan Panes, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, said that analysts' expectations for the dollar exchange rate might not be justified, and then the value of the US currency could rise to the range of 80-83 rubles.
In February, the ruble was supported by sales of foreign currency and gold by the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule, which, taking into account adjustments by the Central Bank of Russia, amounts to 16.5 billion rubles per day until March 5. The key rate has been at 15.5% since February 13, which keeps demand for ruble-denominated instruments.
All important news is on the Izvestia channel in the MAX messenger.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
