The expert assessed the impact of early mortgage repayment on the housing market

A significant part of borrowers who applied for a mortgage in late 2024 and early 2025 initially considered the loan as a temporary solution for a period of high interest rates. Many of them are trying to reduce their debt burden as quickly as possible. Valery Tumin, Director of the Russian and CIS Markets at Fam Properties, told Izvestia about this on March 16.

"Many borrowers who took out a loan in late 2024 or early 2025 initially considered it as a temporary solution - until better times. According to VTB, every fifth borrower with a market mortgage in 2025 has already fully closed the loan, and more than half regularly made partial early payments. Some of those who could not cope with the workload on their own chose to exit through the sale of an apartment — 425 million rubles fell in the fourth quarter, which is twice as much as the same period a year earlier. Yes, such dynamics may indirectly indicate financial difficulties for some borrowers," the expert noted.

He explained that for banks, early repayment of mortgages means a reduction in interest income, since financial institutions do not receive part of the planned profits. However, at the same time it reduces potential risks. According to the Bank of Russia, the share of overdue mortgage debt for more than 90 days increased from 0.5% to 1% by mid-2025. Nevertheless, this level remains relatively low for the banking system.

"Self-liquidation of a loan through the sale of an apartment actually removes a potentially problematic asset from the bank's balance sheet. This is a much less painful scenario than forced foreclosure," the expert emphasized.

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In general, there is no serious pressure on the mortgage sector yet. The total volume of prematurely repaid mortgage loans in 2025 amounted to 1.16 trillion rubles. At the same time, the market continues to work actively: in January 2026 alone, banks issued mortgage loans worth 430 billion rubles.

This dynamic affects the real estate market through an increase in supply on the secondary market. However, according to Tumin, the scale of this process is still small and is not capable of significantly changing the price situation.

"The volume of loans closed through the sale of housing is about 1.3 billion rubles, which is too small to bring down the market. A more important factor now is the behavior of owners who are in no hurry to put apartments up for sale and are waiting for a reduction in rates," he said.

According to the expert, in Moscow in 2025, the influx of new facilities to the secondary market turned out to be 15-20% lower than usual, which supports the shortage of liquid supply.

The Bank of Russia's medium-term forecast assumes that the key rate in 2026 will be in the range of 13-15%. If monetary policy is gradually eased, forced home sales may decrease, and demand accumulated over the period of expensive mortgages will gradually return to the market.

At the end of 2025, the volume of prematurely repaid mortgage loans due to the sale of housing by borrowers doubled compared to the same period in 2024. In just a year, 1.3 billion rubles worth of loans were closed in this way, and a third of this amount fell in the fourth quarter, according to data from the Central Bank, studied by Izvestia.

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