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- A bad world is better than war: the monarchies of the Persian Gulf did not respond with strikes against Iran
A bad world is better than war: the monarchies of the Persian Gulf did not respond with strikes against Iran
During the war with the United States and Israel, Iran launched ballistic missile and kamikaze drone strikes against the Persian Gulf countries. Tehran claims that it is not the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that are being attacked, but the American military bases located there, which are de jure US territory. Middle Eastern monarchies with powerful armies have focused on protecting and minimizing damage, rather than retaliating. Saudi Arabia, instead of speaking out against Iran, condemned Israel. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The ambivalent position
For a long time, the Gulf states have been ambivalent about Iran. On the one hand, Tehran was considered a threat to regional security due to the development of its nuclear program, as well as the support of various proxy forces. However, on the other hand, the states of the region sought to establish relations with the Iranian authorities. In 2023, with the mediation of China, Saudi Arabia agreed with Iran to reopen the embassies. The UAE ambassador had returned to Tehran a year earlier.
The countries of the Persian Gulf, on whose territory the US military bases are located, sought to maintain a balance in the region. They refused to provide airspace or territory for any military action against Tehran, and also offered to resolve the contradictions diplomatically.
In the current confrontation with the United States and Israel, the Iranian authorities have addressed the Persian Gulf countries with the words: "We are not going to attack you. But if the bases located on your territory are used against us during US operations in the region, we will strike at these bases." These facilities, as noted by the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ali Larijani, are de jure considered to be the territory of the United States.
However, since the beginning of the escalation, there have already been reports of destroyed civilian infrastructure facilities and accidental victims of Tehran's attacks.
But even in this case, Iran attacked American military facilities, targets that are also used for military needs, Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, said in an interview with Izvestia.
— This is, for example, when the security guards occupied one of the floors of the hotel. The hotel seems to be a civilian facility, but the CIA is quite a military target. It turned out that the combatants are among the non-combatants. So the Americans violated the norms of warfare. But who is interested in this at all in the current realities? — the political scientist asked himself.
He added that Tehran is also attacking the oil and gas infrastructure. It does not take into account that these actions are defensive.
"The resolution recently adopted by the UN Security Council condemns only Iran's aggression against the Gulf countries, but it does not mention that the United States and Israel were the first to start this war," the expert stressed.
An unexpected response
The Gulf states refrain not only from retaliatory strikes against Iran, but also from strong criticism of Tehran. In a recent telephone conversation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud "discussed the unprecedented escalation of tension in the Middle East as a result of the unprovoked American-Israeli aggression against Iran."
"Both sides stressed the importance of the immediate cessation of all hostilities and the rejection of military methods to resolve the conflict, leading to civilian casualties and causing serious damage to civilian infrastructure both in Iran and in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, which are not related to the illegal actions of the United States and Israel and should not be attacked," — it is said in the message posted on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
There is no reason for the Gulf monarchies to fight Iran, because any war will weaken not only Israel, but also them, Danila Krylov believes.
— After all, in addition to strikes on some local objects, a very large number of infrastructure will be attacked on the principle of "after us at least the flood". Given Shiite fanaticism, this is a fairly predictable scenario that does not greatly please the Gulf monarchies and absolutely does not encourage them to conduct any offensive actions, the expert is convinced.
The war started by Israel and the United States creates many problems for the countries of the Persian Gulf, the political scientist said.
— This is a purely American-Israeli-Iranian war. Why would anyone else participate in it? No one wants to. I don't think that, for example, Americans care about the destruction of non-American infrastructure in the Gulf countries. The Saudis do not want to receive burnt—out oil storage facilities, because these are big monetary losses," the analyst explained.
The monarchies of the Persian Gulf are trying to protect people, including tourists, who, for example, bring a significant part of their income to the UAE, Krylov added.
— Besides, the question arises: what is the answer? A land army? But it is necessary to cross the Persian Gulf or enter Iraq and attack from its side. In any case, it is very expensive, and the result is absolutely unpredictable," the source told Izvestia.
The accession of the Gulf monarchies to the war threatens them not only with great financial losses, but also with human and reputational ones, he said.
— Having advanced modern tanks, aircraft, artillery, etc. and being able to use it are two very big differences. Countries do not want to get involved in aggression, the end of which is not in sight, and the Americans will simply strengthen their positions, once again waging war with someone else's hands," the political scientist said.
A matter of skills
On paper, the Arab monarchies have great military potential. For example, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have modern aviation — the kingdom ranks second in the world in terms of the number of F-15 aircraft. The UAE, in turn, has one of the most modern air defense systems in the world. However, despite the availability of expensive modern weapons, the real combat readiness of the countries is highly questionable. The same Riyadh has failed to achieve serious success in the long-term conflict with the Houthis.
According to Krylov, the main goal of the Arab states is to present themselves as victims, but in such a way that they do not become the target of attacks once again.
— Their position can be explained, firstly, by the desire to survive. Secondly, to minimize the damage. Thirdly, to avoid getting involved in any offensive actions as much as possible and thereby try to get yourself out of harm's way," the expert concluded.
Someone Else's War
At the same time, the current military confrontation has called into question the future and image of the GCC countries, Ilya Baskakov, a junior researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, said in a conversation with Izvestia.
"A war of attrition, which the current confrontation in the region risks fully escalating into, is absolutely not in the interests of the leadership of the Gulf monarchies," the expert explained.
The political scientist considered it unlikely that the potential retaliatory actions of the Arabian monarchies could lead to a fundamental turning point in the war in the Middle East, although they could become a significant factor in its development. At the same time, the political and diplomatic steps of the monarchies, such as the resolution prepared by Bahrain, are one thing in the perception of the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran, but the military and political response is quite another.
"In addition, the signals coming from Iran indicate that there are two conditional groups among the country's elite considering the most optimal steps in the framework of the current existential confrontation — let's designate them as advocating a more moderate and more decisive response," the analyst said.
According to the expert, the potential military and political actions of the GCC countries will only strengthen the positions of the last forces and draw the Gulf countries into an even more serious crisis.
— The Gulf monarchies cannot ignore the fact that they will continue to have to coexist in the same subregion with Iran. The events of recent weeks have confirmed the stability of the Islamic republic's power system, which, despite critical pressure, is being rebuilt, but remains inherently consistent," the orientalist emphasized.
The prospects for the development of the conflict are unpredictable for all participants. The United States can potentially withdraw from direct confrontation, while Israel is far from Iran and may conduct an indirect confrontation. The Persian Gulf countries are nearby and, regardless of the outcome of the conflict, they will have relations with their Persian neighbor, for whom these potential military and political steps will remain in the national historical memory, the political scientist explained.
— The ideal for the monarchies of the Persian Gulf is to return to the state of a "safe haven in the Middle East", albeit with a general awareness of the qualitatively changed conditions and the presence of memories of the events that took place. But the potential military steps of these countries are unlikely to serve this purpose," Baskakov concluded.
Wait it out and defend
In turn, orientalist Kirill Semenov believes that the Gulf monarchies, which have powerful armies, have focused on protecting and minimizing damage rather than retaliating, as they want the war to end as soon as possible with minimal destruction and a return to the status quo.
"Israel, on the contrary, is interested in a protracted conflict, chaos and the fundamental weakening of Iran, even at the cost of destabilizing the region," the expert stressed.
In his opinion, the GCC countries see that Israel stands higher in the hierarchy of US allies and do not want to participate in its war.
— They do not believe that the United States will be able or willing to curb the appetites of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the victory. The main paradox for the Gulf elites is that the overthrow of the Islamic Republic will not bring silence. It will remove the last major deterrent to the revisionist policies of Israel itself," the expert said.
As a result, the Gulf states will be squeezed between three unstable states — Yemen, Iraq and a destroyed Iran — and a strengthened Israel, striving for regional hegemony.
"That's why their strategy is to wait it out and defend, not attack," Semenov concluded.
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