The size of the mortgage loan in Russia has reached the ceiling of the possibilities of buyers

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the average size of a mortgage loan in equity participation agreement transactions amounted to 5.74 million rubles. A year earlier, in the fourth quarter of 2024, this amount amounted to 5.43 million rubles. The increase in the amount of mortgage loans by 5.74% is comparable to the level of official inflation recorded in 2025 (5.59%), analysts from the Movement told Izvestia.<url>", having studied the data of the Central Bank of Russia. A similar situation was observed a year earlier, in 2024 the loan amount increased by 9.5% with a similar annual inflation (9.52%).

The most significant increase in the average mortgage loan amount was recorded in the period 2020-2022, when the basic preferential mortgage program launched during the pandemic to support the construction industry significantly accelerated both demand for housing and apartment prices. In 2023, there was a reverse correction — the loan amount decreased by 7%, and over the past two years, growth has followed the level of official inflation.

The low growth in the loan amount is due to both a slowdown in housing price growth in 2025 and a decrease in household income growth, analysts say. The trend towards reducing the space of apartments being purchased also contributed.

"The buyer is currently in difficult conditions, even taking into account the preservation of targeted mortgage loan subsidy programs. He must make the initial payment, as well as afford a more or less comfortable monthly loan payment. That is, the boundary of the total cost of the apartment has been determined, which it somehow rests on. And this border, as we can see now, has stopped moving up. Buyers, in fact, have reached the ceiling of their financial capabilities," says the head of the analytical center "Movement.<url>" by Yan Gravshin.

The slowdown in mortgage loan growth is a negative signal for developers, especially those who work in the mass housing segment (economy and comfort classes). The cost of construction is increasing against the background of a slowdown in price growth, and the profitability of projects is decreasing.

"Developers are also pushing against the buyer's price ceiling one way or another. What will they do in this situation? There are not many opportunities, the most obvious is a decrease in the quality characteristics of new projects, savings, abandonment of expensive options in residential complexes, and cost reduction by any means possible. This is not good for the market as a whole," Gravshin added.

In the context of Russian regions, the most significant increase in the amount of mortgage loans issued over the year occurred in the Kurgan, Irkutsk, Tyumen, Omsk, Astrakhan and Kemerovo regions. Negative dynamics (reduction of the loan amount) was recorded in seven regions: Karelia, Chuvashia, Kamchatka, Tambov, Novgorod and Pskov regions, as well as Kabardino-Balkaria.

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Alexander Aksenenko, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Construction and Housing and Communal Services, announced on March 10 that a family mortgage on secondary housing could be earned as early as 2026. The MP added that the expansion of mortgage programs and the improvement of conditions for the purchase of housing could potentially contribute to an increase in the birth rate if real estate becomes more affordable for families.

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