Personal contract: Russia and Hungary agree on oil and gas prices
Ukraine's attempts to block oil supplies to Slovakia and Hungary may deprive Kiev of a chance to join the EU. The country already has difficult relations with Budapest, in particular, because of the situation with the Hungarian minority. Now there is a serious risk of antagonizing Bratislava — the deputy head of the ruling party, Lubos Blaha, told Izvestia that Ukraine was not ready to join the EU, threatening the country with further measures. Meanwhile, Russia intends to maintain the terms of energy supplies to Slovakia and Hungary. Following the meeting of the Hungarian Foreign Minister with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the Russian side promised to keep prices at the current level, despite the war in the Middle East, which affects the global market.
How was the meeting between Putin and Szijjarto
After the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, global oil and gas prices skyrocketed. The price of Brent crude oil increased by more than $10, reaching $82.75 per barrel. As a result, a number of countries, primarily Hungary and Slovakia, have concerns about whether Russia will raise oil and gas prices following market fluctuations. To do this, on March 3, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban phoned Vladimir Putin, and the next day the country's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto flew to Moscow for a personal meeting with the Russian president.
As a result, Hungary received guarantees from Russia for oil and gas supplies at unchanged prices, Szijjarto said, adding that this was the main purpose of his visit. The two sides also agreed to look for alternative energy supply routes, if necessary.
— As for hydrocarbons, I understand that this cannot but concern you, first of all, the supply of oil. Everything that depends on us is that we have always fulfilled all our obligations. And, of course, we intend and are ready to do it. Not everything depends on us, but, I repeat, we have always been reliable suppliers," Vladimir Putin said during the meeting.
Russian oil supplies are extremely important for Budapest, as the costs and utility costs depend on them, said Peter Szijjarto. During the conversation, he recalled the conflict with Ukraine over the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplies oil to Hungary. On January 27, Kiev stopped transit after an accident that the Ukrainian authorities attributed to an attack by Russian drones. A month later, deliveries have not resumed, despite the demands of Hungary and Slovakia.
Ukraine does not name a date for the possible start of transit through Druzhba, emphasizing that repair work is continuing, but they are hindered by alleged shelling from the Russian Federation. Viktor Orban accused Kiev of political blackmail, after which he even published satellite images from which it follows that the oil pipeline is not damaged.
To put pressure on Kiev, Hungary has already blocked the EU's decision to allocate €90 billion to Ukraine, and also threatened it with a blockade of electricity supplies. "We will use it [the blockade] only at the very end, if necessary," Viktor Orban said. Nevertheless, Budapest already considers the country's energy security situation to be critical, which explains the urgent visit of the foreign minister to Moscow, senior laboratory researcher at IMEMO RAS Artyom Ilyinsky explained to Izvestia.
"The very fact that Szijjarto arrived in Moscow says a lot that Hungary urgently needs guarantees from the Russian side, especially after what is happening now in the Middle East," the expert said.
Budapest has already started developing possible alternatives to Druzhba, asking Croatia if they can supply oil to Hungary via a pipeline through the Adriatic Sea, said Artem Ilyinsky. Oil can be purchased from Africa and the Middle East via this route, but it is more expensive. In addition, this route is not yet designed for large volumes of supplies. However, the crisis over Friendship is likely to be resolved peacefully through the mediation of the European Union, which is not interested in aggravating relations between Kiev and Budapest, the expert believes.
At a meeting in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin also promised to release two Hungarian citizens who were forcibly mobilized into the Armed Forces of Ukraine and captured by the Russians. Following the visit, Szijjarto announced that the liberated Hungarians would return to their homeland and would no longer be at the front.
Ukraine will not be admitted to the EU in 2027
Blocking supplies via the Druzhba oil pipeline may force tougher actions not only from Hungary, but also from Slovakia, which actively cooperates with the Russian Federation in the energy sector.
That is, the attempt by the Ukrainian leadership to take advantage of the dependence of the two countries on Russian resources and force them to change their position may eventually have a negative impact on Kiev.
Deputy head of the ruling Smer party and MEP Lubos Blaha told Izvestia that Slovakia would not allow Ukraine to join the EU in 2027 due to corruption and the behavior of the Kiev leadership.
— Given the current state of Ukraine, the level of corruption and the behavior of its leadership, we absolutely do not consider it ready to join the EU. I don't want to say that this can't change in the future, but at the moment I definitely don't mean 2027," the politician told Izvestia.
Earlier, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that he was not against Ukraine's accession to the EU, provided that all the requirements were met. However, he threatened to reconsider this position if Kiev continues to block energy supplies to the republic.
— If the situation reaches an extreme, then the measures that Slovakia will have to take will have to be very serious, — said Lubos Blaha.
Earlier, the Financial Times newspaper wrote that the proposal for Ukraine's accelerated accession to the European Union was planned to be discussed on March 4 at a dinner with the ambassadors of the EU member states.
The European Commission has prepared the following plan: Ukraine is admitted to the EU if the minimum requirements are met, but with limited access to monetary funds and decision-making mechanisms until all criteria are fully met.
However, such a proposal has already caused serious dissatisfaction. According to Reuters, a number of major European countries, including France and Germany, are skeptical about the idea of accelerated membership of Ukraine.
They fear that granting membership before the completion of reforms, including anti-corruption ones, will weaken the incentives for their implementation after the country's admission to the EU. Nevertheless, representatives of Brussels hope to find a solution for Ukraine's accession.
The idea of Ukraine's rapid accession to the EU appeared in the American draft peace plan last year. It was assumed that thanks to European integration, Ukraine would receive security guarantees and be able to rebuild its economy. During the visit of EC President Ursula von der Leyen to Kiev on February 24, Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine was "technically ready" to open all six clusters of EU accession negotiations. He demanded to name a specific date for Kiev's admission to the association, but the European leadership has so far evaded this.
Ukraine's accession to the EU in the current circumstances seems impractical, and today this issue is primarily used more as a tool of rhetoric and a kind of pressure from the European Union itself. Even if we assume that all issues of the Ukrainian conflict have been resolved and agreed upon, which is extremely unlikely, there are still a significant number of states within the EU that either oppose the inclusion of Ukraine (Hungary) or say that this is an extremely premature issue (the Netherlands), a senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations told Izvestia. the MGIMO Institute of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Egor Sergeev.
— Objective factors rather suggest that joining the EU is not a realistic option. On the other hand, the surrealism of modern international relations should not be underestimated, the expert believes.
The main supporters of Kiev's European integration remain the Baltic states and Scandinavia. For example, Denmark, together with Lithuania, even launched a special program to support Ukraine's integration into the EU. Poland was previously in this camp, but after a series of corruption scandals among the Ukrainian elite, Warsaw has reconsidered its position and now does not insist on Kiev's rapid admission into the community. Given that Berlin and Paris are not ready to rush, the chances of the European Commission reaching a consensus on Ukraine's immediate accession are almost nonexistent.
Against this background, Russia does not object to Ukraine's membership in the EU. However, the situation may change in the context of the militarization of the European Union. Last year, Brussels announced a plan to rearm the bloc's countries for a total of €800 billion and continues to discuss new military projects. Moscow notes that the EU is gradually turning from an economic union into a military bloc.
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